The numbers people really need to look at are the ones for the Louisville Congressional seat. I looked at them a couple months back for a FB discussion I was having (will see if I can find and dig them out when I get home tonight), going back to when Anne Northup beat Mike Ward (1994 I think?)
The difference in margins between Presidential and mid term cycles was striking. And the jump from Obama being on the ticket in 2008 and 2012 was huge. Yarmouth wouldn’t have won the seat in 2008 without Obama, saw his margin drop significantly in 2010 and then rebound in 2012.
The numbers seem to show that Obama accounted for at least a 5 point, possibly an 8 point, drop in McConnell’s support in 2008. Iow if Obama hadn’t been on the ballot McConnell would have won by 11-14 points rather than 6.
Right now, seteris paribus (not even Labor Day yet) I think angry Conservatives will knock that margin back, but not enough and McConnell wins by 5.
As I said... very weak.
/johnny
It all depends on how many KY conservatives sit it out.
And it will not take a big percent of them sitting out.
I estimated, based on past elections, it will only take about 12%
of KY conservatives sitting it out for McConnell to apply for a job
at Trent Lott’s Lobbying Firm.
I will take your bet. He will not win by 5 points.
As J Random Freeper points out.
McConnell only won by 6% in his last election.
He has a much better opponent this election, than his last election.
He has pissed off every TRUE conservative in KY.
And I will add another point. There are more registered RAT voters
than GOP voters in KY.
And this is exactly why Conservatives need to vote for Grimes. Sitting at home does one vote worth of damage. Voting for his opponent does twice the damage. If people have decided to hurt McConnell, why do the job half way?
Let us pitch this vile refuse over the side.
McConnell wins by 5.
________________________________
In previous races, McConnell did NOT have as viable opponent as he has this time. Also, in previous years he was not so bold to diss and show his utter disdain for Conservatives. He did not threaten to “crush” Conservatives in years past. He was not hated nearly as deeply as he is today. Mitch McConnell is like a thug husband who won’t work and support his family and beats his wife on a regular basis. But, he says he’s “sorry” and let’s make up when he wants sex.