It all depends on how many KY conservatives sit it out.
And it will not take a big percent of them sitting out.
I estimated, based on past elections, it will only take about 12%
of KY conservatives sitting it out for McConnell to apply for a job
at Trent Lott’s Lobbying Firm.
I will take your bet. He will not win by 5 points.
As J Random Freeper points out.
McConnell only won by 6% in his last election.
He has a much better opponent this election, than his last election.
He has pissed off every TRUE conservative in KY.
And I will add another point. There are more registered RAT voters
than GOP voters in KY.
You’re basing your prediction on an election that had abnormally high turnouts by both Liberals and Blacks. Again, don’t look at McConnell’s 2008 race, look at the past cycle trending from the Louisville seat and work from there.
You need a heck of a lot more pissed off Conservatives than you think you do. Look at Bevin’s primary numbers. Figure that some of them WILL hold their noses and vote for McConnell. Others will stay home. The ones who can do the real damage are the ones who will cross to Grimes. Question is, how many will do that for a pro-abortion, pro-Obamacare Democrat who claims to support coal and gun rights but who will be seen as an enabler for the destruction of both?
I see a chunk of Conservatives staying home. I don’t see Conservatives being ticked off enough to vote for Grimes in significant numbers.
As to KY having more registered Democrats, look at how that worked for Obama in 08 and 12. Even with the big boost he got from Louisville. KY is a yellow dog/blue dog state that votes for Conservative Dems (or, rather, Dems masquerading as Conservatives) local and statewide but sends Republicans to Washington.