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Posted on 06/12/2014 7:27:38 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
How bad has the situation in Iraq become? The city of Kirkuk has long been a point of contention between the Kurds and the Iraqi government. Saddam Hussein expelled the Kurds from the city, and ever since the Kurds have laid claim to it — and its oil resources. The new government in Iraq similarly refused to cede the territory to the Kurds, and for the same reason.
Now they’ve run away from Kirkuk, and the Kurds have it again by default as the Iraqi army collapses:
Iraqi Kurdish forces say they have taken full control of the northern oil city of Kirkuk as the army flees before an Islamist offensive nearby.
“The whole of Kirkuk has fallen into the hands of peshmerga,” Kurdish spokesman Jabbar Yawar told Reuters. “No Iraq army remains in Kirkuk now.”
Kurdish fighters are seen as a bulwark against Sunni Muslim insurgents. …
Under Saddam Hussein’s programme of “Arabisation”, Kurds were driven from Kirkuk and replaced with settlers from the south, and the Iraqi government continues to assert control over nearby oilfields, with the backing from the local Turkmen community.
That won’t last long now, as the Iraqis still fiddle while Anbar and Nineveh burn. The parliament has postponed a vote on Nouri al-Maliki’s declaration of emergency, which delays any cohesive response. They can’t delay for much longer before ISIS comes knocking on their doors in Baghdad:
Insurgents inspired by al-Qaeda rapidly pressed toward Baghdad on Wednesday, confronting little resistance from Iraq’s collapsing security forces and expanding an arc of control that now includes a wide swath of the country.
By nightfall, the militants had reached the flash-point city of Samarra, just 70 miles outside Baghdad, after having first seized Tikrit, Saddam Hussein’s home town, and other cities while pressing southward from Mosul. …
It appeared that the militants were facing more robust resistance as they moved south, where Iraq’s Shiites have a stronger presence. But several experts said it would be wrong to assume that heavily fortified Baghdad, with its large Shiite population and concentration of elite forces, could easily fend off an ISIS attack.
On Thursday, the militant group vowed to march on to Baghdad . A spokesman for the Islamic State of Iran and the Levant says the group has old scores to settle with the Shiite-led government in Baghdad, the Associated Press reported.
The spokesman, Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, also threatened that ISIL fighters will take the southern Iraqi Shiite cities of Karbala and Najaf, which hold two of the holiest shrines for Shiite Muslims. The statement, which could not be independently verified, came in an audio posting Thursday on militant Web sites commonly used by the group, the AP said.
The Peshmerga will hold off ISIS in the north, at least for a while. The BBC notes that ISIS has bypassed the Kurdish areas for fear of the well-seasoned Peshmerga, who aren’t going to run in the face of an inferior force of Sunni terrorists. The ISIS move toward the Shi’ite cities might end up backfiring, though, as it will encourage Iran to come to Maliki’s rescue and turn all of Iraq into a battlefield. In that scenario, the US will lose all influence and power in Iraq, and perhaps throughout the entire region as the other states start cutting deals with Tehran or lining up against it in the ground war.
This is turning into a rout, and Iraq is getting dismembered as we watch. Unless the West intervenes in a big way soon, it won’t be long before we have to start evacuating from that large, expensive US embassy — and we get another iconic image of the last chopper to leave Saigon, er, Baghdad.
So then what are the odds very shortly here of this ISIS army getting caught between the Kurds from the north and the Shiites from the southeast.
I think they have to seriously consider this possibility and not get stretched too thin, if they’re not already. Plus they’re threatening the Jordanians. If they’re not careful, they’ll have a 3 pronged offensive against them. Kurds from North, Jordanians from the West and Shiite/Iranians from the South/East.
I see no certainty that a prolonged effort to reassert total Suni control will take place. There may be some effort but when they secure the natural Suni tribal areas, the effort will diminish
Their main task is going to be learning how to governwhat they have.
Thanks for your excellent posts and personal insight to this mess.
Please keep posting on it.
Maybe if you have time, you could set up a ping list.
Most of us unless we have been over there, haven’t the slightest idea of what has happened, is happening and may happen.
Thanks again and for your service.
Dave
Well — if there is a 3 for 1 split who gets Bagdad??
— more specifically who gets the coveted Green Zone???
Iran is already there. I read a tweet about the Iranian special forces coming over the border.
Sadly, they’re going to be Iraq’s ally, because Obama has abandoned it. He always swoons over the most radical Muslims, and in this case, it’s ISIL.
Thank you sir. I mostly lurk, and comment on stuff I know a little about. Did a LOT of time in Turkey and Iraq.
I wonder if the Kurds can kick the Shiite out of ISIS? That would be great if so.. This collapse is on Obamadullah’s back. He turned his back on the ‘Status of Forces’ agreement and this is the outcome of that.
It wasn't so much a wish to support them as it was a statement that giving aid to the government in Baghdad is useless.
Not sure about that one...Lest we forget, supposedly major oil was found in Anbar Province, so the Sunni’s could have their own oil fields, as the Kurds and Shiites in the south do now. Erbil was booming last time I was in Kurdistan so it wouldn’t be out of the question for each to have a very modern capital in their respective areas. Baghdad is the big question.
Send in General SISI who is not a sissy, and his Egyptian Legions- they know how to fight Islamic terrorists with no BS.
I don't believe that it does. It certainly does have enough people to destabilize the sitting government, though, putting Iraq up for grabs at the hands of a number of parties who have been just waiting for the opportunity. If Iran isn't already actively involved it soon will be.
RE: Send in General SISI who is not a sissy, and his Egyptian Legions- they know how to fight Islamic terrorists with no BS.
There used to be a time when the USA could do it without losing much sleep .... Remember Tokyo? Dresden?
We don’t have the heart to do it anymore.
The Russians on the other hand FLATTENED Chechnya without breaking a sweat.
People, like you, are why I contribute monthly to Free Republic and come here daily for the reality of the news we get bombarded with each day with the left wing twists.
Fortunately, on about every subject, we have a few people like you, who know the realities of the news and report on it.
Years ago, my wife used to kid me about using FR to find out was happening. Then a little less than a decade ago, when something happened world wide or impacting our nation. She would go to Free Republic and see what they are saying about what’s happening,
Communist Kurds in the north, always fighting Turkish forces, and more normal Kurds in the south who are always fighting Arabs and Arab terrorists. There’s probably more than that, but those were the two groups I learned about over there.
Also, I would LOVE for these ISIS clowns to go up against the Peshmerga. That would bring their campaign to a very sudden and violent end.
You’re welcome!
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