Looking Back at the Tea Leaves on Cantor

National Review ^ | 6/10/2014 | John Fund

[fortheDeclaration]

The district is a solid GOP one, the Democrats are not going to pick it up.

[dforest]

There is no proof whatsoever that dems voted in this primary. The turn out was low and that alone puts that notion to rest.

Steve Forbes was saying this morning that this idea that Brat won because of dems voting is ridiculous and that the GOP ignores this at their peril.

[VRWCarea51]

Hey get with the program and toe the line. Brat is the Republican candidate. Sit down, shut up, vote for Brat and eat your shit sandwich. Enjoy the peanuts.

After all hasn’t this been the battle cry from the Rino(e) since the Rockefeller wing took over?

[bfh333]

Graham got those votes for many reasons...

1) The 17th amendment - outside money
2) Incumbency
3) many primary challengers splitting the vote
4) Open primary - dems help to pick your candidate

Knocking off a sitting Senator in a primary is NEARLY impossible even as awful as Graham is...

[Servant of the Cross]

Turnout was low, with a rainy day depressing normally low primary turnout. But the enthusiasm and commitment of Brat’s supporters, who had been canvassing for him extensively, in the absence of any real financial support.

Nowadays, a political campaign is a long hard slog. You can't underestimate the necessary GOTV activities and having a huge network of supporters "canvassing extensively". A House seat has such a smaller area to canvass than a statewide Senate race.

[MDspinboyredux]

Obama took 43% of the vote in 2012. Very plausible for Dem pickup.

As far as your prediction (and something Cantor is very aware of right now), I’ll leave you with this:

“pride goeth before the fall”

Don’t be too confident.

[wny]

Lesson for Republicans: Stop turning into Democrats when you get to D.C.

[nathanbedford]

Ronald Reagan was fond of saying, "if they will not see the light make them feel the heat." Many Republicans will now feel the heat. Others, like Senator Orrin Hatch in Utah, cleverly gamed the system by pretending to have seen the light and turned right. He got his reelection and immediately turned left.

Nevertheless, the Cantor defeat is a victory because other would be Rinos are in the position of the Soviets about Star Wars, they could not be sure that it would not work and Rino Republicans cannot be sure they will not be dealt out of the game like Cantor.

The point is to build momentum toward seeing the light.

[nhwingut]

Obama took 43% in a presidential election. He got out the base vote from Richmond. Different turnout, different demo, different candidate. In an off year election which is mode overwhelmingly Republican, the unknown Dem has no chance.

[Haiku Guy]

However, Lindsey "Grahamnesty" didn't get that nickname for nothing. He even double-downed on 'immigration reform' at the primary debate. Yet he still garnered 56% in more conservative (than VA) South Carolina?

Or, to look at it another way, a sitting Senator lost 44% of the vote in a primary. The opposition was fractured, but they all voted against Graham.

Graham is a good retail politician. His GOTV effort was a thing to behold. But he needed to pull out all the stops to get just over 50% of the vote in a Republican Primary.

Senator Wins Renomination - Dog Bites Man

House Majority Leader Loses Renomination - Man Bites Dog

We're not going to win them all. But if the Republicans don't get religion on protecting the border and stemming the tide of illegal immigration, we are going to win more than our fair share.

[Haiku Guy]

Cantor’s district is so heavily gerrymandered for Republicans that it is all but impossible to elect a Democrat there.

The Democrats are not even going to have a candidate on the ballot.

In November it will be Brat vs. a Green and a Libertarian.

[mazda77]

In SC the problem was too many candidates. I think there were something like 9. When it was just Mace or Bright, the prospects looked much better but it ended up with the other 8 trying to marginalize each other rather than focusing on Graham.

They will learn from this and if the Senate goes much stronger to the conservative side, you will see the RINO’s start to tact to which way the wind is blowing.

The one positive thing here is that this defeat will have a definite effect on the rest of the primaries.

[yldstrk]

Quit trying to please all the people all the time RINOs. Have a spine. Stand up for what is right.

[DeWalt]

Well, bye.

[rdcbn]

I guess you could say we have reached a tipping point in American Politics, kind of like the Island of Guam

[yldstrk]

I read there were 20K more voters in this race than last time, that’s not subjectively low voter turnout

[9YearLurker]

Establishment dribble.

Cantor didn’t “muddle his message” on illegal immigration—he acted straight out for amnesty than ran baldfaced campaign ads claiming the contrary.

All of the current GOPe leadership is compromised on illegal immigration, though Ryan is more so than Hensarling.

And how remote from VA can a man in DC be? Voters weren’t just throwing a hissy fit because they felt ignored by the traitor.

[9YearLurker]

And Graham isn’t repulsive?

[Sacajaweau]

Wrong....Jack Trammell is the Dem candidate. Carr is the Libertarian and Mike Dickinson is the write in.

[Servant of the Cross]

Yes, Flimsey Tinkerbelle is too, but obviously not to a lot (>177,000) of South Carolinians.

Read on McDuff.