U.S. officials cut estimate of recoverable Monterey Shale oil by 96%

Los Angeles Times ^ | May 20, 2014 | Louis Sahagun

[Praxeologue]

Federal energy authorities have slashed by 96% the estimated amount of recoverable oil buried in California's vast Monterey Shale deposits, deflating its potential as a national "black gold mine" of petroleum.

Just 600 million barrels of oil can be extracted with existing technology, far below the 13.7 billion barrels once thought recoverable from the jumbled layers of subterranean rock spread across much of Central California, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

The new estimate, expected to be released publicly next month, is a blow to the nation's oil future and to projections that an oil boom would bring as many as 2.8 million new jobs to California and boost tax revenue by $24.6 billion annually.

The Monterey Shale formation contains about two-thirds of the nation's shale oil reserves. It had been seen as an enormous bonanza, reducing the nation's need for foreign oil imports through the use of the latest in extraction techniques, including acid treatments, horizontal drilling and fracking.

The energy agency said the earlier estimate of recoverable oil, issued in 2011 by an independent firm under contract with the government, broadly assumed that deposits in the Monterey Shale formation were as easily recoverable as those found in shale formations elsewhere.

The estimate touched off a speculation boom among oil companies. The new findings seem certain to dampen that enthusiasm.

[Milton Miteybad]

Federal energy authorities have slashed by 96% the estimated amount of recoverable oil buried in California's vast Monterey Shale deposits, deflating its potential as a national "black gold mine" of petroleum.

Just 600 million barrels of oil can be extracted with existing technology, far below the 13.7 billion barrels once thought recoverable from the jumbled layers of subterranean rock spread across much of Central California, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

I had always regarded the early estimates for the Monterey Shale as very optimistic, nearly to the point of being delusionally so. It made me wonder where this estimate came from. Turns out it was the work product of, as set forth in the LA Times article, a consulting outfit in Virginia, under a contract awarded by the Energy Information Agency.

Now, with all due respect to the fine folks of the Commonwealth of Virginia, it surely is not the first place you go to find top-flight geoscientists and petroleum engineers. Paper-pushing bureaucrats, yes. Reservoir engineers? No. The original Monterey Shale reserve estimates produced by that outfit prove that beyond a shadow of a doubt.

I wonder how much that group charged the U.S. taxpayer for those bogus reserve estimates, anyway.

[Veto!]

Where did that oil go? Perhaps the Chinese are slant-drilling from ships over the horizon.

Did I really say that?

[Praxeologue]

I had always regarded the early estimates for the Monterey Shale as very optimistic, nearly to the point of being delusionally so. It made me wonder where this estimate came from. Turns out it was the work product of, as set forth in the LA Times article, a consulting outfit in Virginia, under a contract awarded by the Energy Information Agency.

So do you think that these consultants were asked to come in high and, if so, why? Was it to provide political cover for Obama and Brown to expand drilling activity in, and revenue for, Brown's California?

[crusty old prospector]

Where did you get that gibberish quote from?

[Praxeologue]

Where did you get that gibberish quote from?

a commenter to the article as posted on SeekingAlpha, an investment website.

[Praxeologue]

What is your considered opinion on the Monterey Shale, Crusty?

[Milton Miteybad]

So do you think that these consultants were asked to come in high and, if so, why? Was it to provide political cover for Obama and Brown to expand drilling activity in, and revenue for, Brown's California?

I don't know that they were asked to "hit the number" or anything like that. Personally, I think the EIA had some money left in the budget at the end of the fiscal year, so they paid some consultant in Virginia (of all places) to come up with a reserve estimate for the Monterey Shale. Looks more like political patronage or crony capitalism than anything else. I'm not convinced there was any ulterior economic motive, because if you're trying to touch off a drilling boom, probably the worst place to try and do it would be 21st century California. In 1920, of course, it was a different story.

[ogen hal]

This government is full of dishonest people...at just about every level. Can you say “liars”?

[clearcarbon]

"U.S. officials cut estimate of recoverable Monterey Shale oil by 96%"

Smells like another "the science is settled" moment.

[Praxeologue]

Thus far, my layman's assessment is that:

- estimates were far too high in the past;

- the Feds are bringing them back in line;

- EIA estimates are subject to wild swings and low levels of accuracy;

- this topic is influenced by geology, not politics.

[zeestephen]

Sorry, California.

I guess the OPEC budget “solution” won’t work after all.

Does this mean the last group of white Liberal hold outs will be moving to Seattle?

[DaveA37]

I would guess that odumbo and his crew had something to do with that report, they do not want the U.S. to be energy independent, which we all know “oil” would contribute heavily towards.

[PeterPrinciple]

96% percent is a big change is perspective. That is the headline and I don’t trust that. Tells me these are made up numbers and political...........................

Can you imagine the headline on global warming? Global warming 4% right...........................

[thackney]

I don’t believe this at all.

The companies that have been drilling into the Monterey Shale have been talking for years how difficult it is too produce and reliably hit the "sweet spots" with all the lifts, twists and fractures due to the geological movements.

[Amagi]

Yes.
We believe the government.
That would be the government headed by Oliar who said we only have 2-3% of the world's known oil reserves.
That would be the government that places obstacles of all manner in accessing, refining, shipping, etc., of our vast natural energy bounty whether it be coal, offshore oil, terrestrial oil, oil shale, etc.
Actually I've reached the point where I am highly skeptical of every damn government pronouncement as being just another damn lie supporting a Marxist political agenda.

[ckilmer]

“NoDak and Texas don’t have 80 million years of earthquakes to eliminate *horizontal* from the layers. In fact, every earthquake and volcano over the 80 million years was cracking those layers and letting the oil migrate away.”
............
but the faulting in texas and colorado and north dakota just doesn’t compare with the faulting in California. The ground in california is way too knotty knarly for a drill.

That is, I’ve seen pictures of the ground they’re trying to drill and it looks knotty knarlier than oak stump burl.

[Lazamataz]

I’ve seen pictures of the ground they’re trying to drill and it looks knotty knarlier than oak stump burl.

That's the technical term for it, right, thackney?

[thackney]

Accurate at least in places.

[Chickensoup]

Is anything from the government true?

[thackney]

then the drilling may start.

Drilling in the Monterey has been going on for years. It is the data from that drilling that has pushed the recoverable reserves estimate back down to reality.