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I had always regarded the early estimates for the Monterey Shale as very optimistic, nearly to the point of being delusionally so. It made me wonder where this estimate came from. Turns out it was the work product of, as set forth in the LA Times article, a consulting outfit in Virginia, under a contract awarded by the Energy Information Agency.

So do you think that these consultants were asked to come in high and, if so, why? Was it to provide political cover for Obama and Brown to expand drilling activity in, and revenue for, Brown's California?

I don't know that they were asked to "hit the number" or anything like that. Personally, I think the EIA had some money left in the budget at the end of the fiscal year, so they paid some consultant in Virginia (of all places) to come up with a reserve estimate for the Monterey Shale. Looks more like political patronage or crony capitalism than anything else. I'm not convinced there was any ulterior economic motive, because if you're trying to touch off a drilling boom, probably the worst place to try and do it would be 21st century California. In 1920, of course, it was a different story.