Posted on 05/09/2014 8:39:19 PM PDT by campaignPete R-CT
in WA-4, I am not sure there is a more liberal Republican. Hard to differentiate ... but it perhaps will be a 2way race to NOV regardless of what happens in the primary. I think those top 2 will be way ahead.
I have my California candidates as follows:
CA-7 Birman
CA31 Booch
CA-52 Jorgensen
CA-24 Justin Fareed to beat Mitchum
I’m not sure Mitchum is unacceptable ... that one I don’t know about.
Anybody in CA we could check with to get their input?
“I’m not sure Mitchum is unacceptable ... that one I don’t know about.”
In CA-31, we shouldn’t be supporting Gooch to the exclusion of Chabot; our only chance is if they finish 1-2 with 18%+ each and with each of Aguilar, Reyes, Baca and Tillman getting between 13%-17%.
some seemed content to get one GOP in the NOV election and hope it is a landslide year. Not sure if Chabot has a shot to finish 2nd place. I will go with your idea unless there is further discussion.
California Primary thread is up
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3155596/posts
Rosendale of MT gets the Tea Party Express endorsement. Yesterday.
The Tea Party Express I tend to be wary of. They usually endorse Ronbots and wave said endorsement around like it’s REALLY what the entire Tea Party wants.
His spy drone ad seems to be getting him a lot of attention.
They also just endorsed the dude that’s running against Ralph Hall in Texas.
I’m very wary of them, clearly they are closely affiliated with the Ronualan Empire, even endorsing Tom Massie despite his lack of a primary opponent.
http://www.teapartyexpress.org/2014-endorsements
Not all their picks are bad though.
And oddly enough, Paul himself has endorsed Hall in Texas. One old guy to another.
Major divisions in that Texas race. Club for growth, Senate Conservatives Fund’s House (on the cousin Miltie in Kansas Train and the waste time in Louisiana and Kentucky backing people that can’t win train, but otherwise good) project are also for the challenger, John Ratcliffe. Bachamann and Joe Barton are for Hall.
I’m not really compelled to oppose him serving one more term.
As for Montana, I don’t know.
The Tea Party Express does seem to be the worst of the vocally active "Tea Party" groups out there (well, I suppose fake "Tea Party" candidates who are really Dems would be worse, but they're not really an organization).
They're a California based group that has a nasty habit of sticking their nose in races elsewhere in the country where they know nothing about the local issues or the candidates, and undermining the local tea party groups who are making genuinely educated endorsements. A perfect example is when the TPX endorsed squishy loser Mark Neumann (who was only polling 10% anyway and had no chance of winning the nomination) in the Wisconsin Senate primary and confused local conservative voters enough to split the Tea Party vote and allow GOP establishment favorite Tommy Thompson to win the nomination.
Elsewhere, they've also endorsed terrible candidates with no conservative track record who have muddied up numerous races where there is a clear proven conservative candidate. Their tactic seems to be to "get behind" any candidate who screams he or she is "ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT!!!" the loudest (giving absolutely no weight to the candidates track record or qualifications for the job) and jump into the race with guns blazing. This also includes if the candidate is as establishment as it gets, but just campaigns as "anti-establishment".
Looking at their past endorsements, I'd say the TPX backs the wrong horse 60-70% of the time. They've endorsed some decent candidates, but a lot of those races were no brainers where the only other candidate was a horrible RINO.
The TPX co-founder (Sal Russo) also has a long track record of being on the amnesty bandwagon. Recently this was exposed and he's now backtracked on the issue. Go figure.
Oh, yeah, that Neumann endorsement. Remember that unhinged TPX’er who lost his $hit when we called out Neumann as a lousy candidate/retread ? Gee whiz, that was fun times.
I still can’t believe that rag muncher won, what a clusterf*** that race was. I don’t know if Hovde would have done any better but TT ran a horrible campaign.
It's like the Oberweis fan club. You'd think after he FINALLY got elected to a LOCAL office in 2012, a light bulb would go on in his supporters heads and tell them "gee, maybe he would have been elected a long time ago if we HADN'T constantly touted him for statewide office over and over again" Instead, the first thing they did is start ANOTHER effort to "draft" him for a statewide race he can't win.
Some of these "conservative activists" seem to be on a steady diet of Stupid pills.
Speaking of Oberweis.
Primary poll from NJ-3, McArthur 46%, Lonegan 35%.
That’s good news for holding the seat.
Another premier example of a state that badly needs a primary runoff. Thompson gets 34% and marches off with the nomination, barely 3% ahead of Hovde. I endorsed Speaker Fitzgerald (who placed 4th), but in a runoff, would’ve gone with Hovde. I stated my belief that Thompson was too old to be running a race to begin a Senate career (when he should’ve run back in 1994 or 1998 and been concluding his time in office).
More than a few FReepers maintained Thompson could win, even with a campaign set on auto-pilot (or floating that ridiculous YouTube video where he was shown exercising, to try to dispel the concerns about his age, trying to ape Strom Thurmond of yore), but that surely went out the window.
I think Baldwin should be a one-term wonder, although depending upon whom the President is in 2018 could effect it one way or the other. If Hillary wins, she’s probably toast. A Republican win probably ups her chances. It’ll be a tough call for Scott Walker (unless he ends up on the Presidential ticket), as he’d have to decide whether to run for a 3rd term that year or the Senate, or perhaps Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch might be a better bet.
OurCampaigns has 5 speculative candidates, Hovde being one along with 3 of the current House members (Reid Ribble, Sean Duffy and Paul Ryan). Ryan probably has more power in the House, though I’d like to see him ousted entirely. Duffy might be a curious choice to run, but only if his wife, Rachel Campos-Duffy, runs for his House seat (I’ve had a crush on her since she was on MTV’s Real World San Francisco as the lone sane person in a house full of cretins and nutters). Ribble I don’t know enough about to handicap.
The other name floated is Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen, who is stepping down this year voluntarily, but I don’t have much of a strong feeling for him and it seems odd he’d drop out of office now to try to make a comeback in 4 years when others will overshadow him by then.
But the silver lining for Lonegan is that the moment he loses, his fan club will immediately launch a "Lonegan 2016" exploratory site to raise funds for him.
I’m still supporting Lonegan in this race. He did win this district in his Senate race. McArthur just strikes me as another establishment-backed hack, and NJ is full of those. This is Lonegan’s one last shot, and I think he deserves it.
I liked Fitzgerald best in that race too but unfortunately it was clear he would place 4th, I wouldn’t have voted for him, you gotta go with the best choice that can win.
I liked Dan Proft best in the 2010 IL Governor race, but he was running dead last so I did the smart thing and voted for Brady.
The same applies to states with runoffs, it’s foolish to vote for candidates who have no chance to place in the top two if you are at all concerned about getting an acceptable candidate into the runoff.
My idea of adopting instant runoff voting (as in Australia) for GOP primaries would solve that problem. ;)
I doubt Ryan runs for the Senate, powerful House members tend to not do that. Unless they’re ousted from power like Roy Blunt.
Too bad Van Hollen is retiring, I hope the rats don’t win the AG post.
For AG, it looks like the GOP has settled on the Waukesha County D.A., Brad Schimel. The Dems have a 3-way battle between 2 D.A.’s (one from Dane’s Madistan) and a State Rep. from Milwaukee. I’d presume the Dane D.A. would have a leg-up hailing from Moonbat Central, but the bloodier the primary, the better for us.
I expect Scott Walker will have an easier time with Madistan nutter Mary Burke (a tax dodger, which should be a capital offense for a Democrat), so he should have some pull downballot (although Van Hollen performed far better in ‘10, but he didn’t need Walker’s help).
The big prize would be getting Sec of State Doug Lafollette’s head. We almost got it in ‘10 with a Black Conservative, but that guy was attacked by the media as being “crazy” or some such (this coming from the same people that back lunatics like Gwen Moore, mama of street thug Supreme Solar Allah). We haven’t won the office since 1970 (Doug has held the seat, except for 4 years when a Black Dem lady had it, since 1975).
Against Booker, yes. Booker was making a fool out of himself, I would have been surprised if he had carried the 3rd, a district more Republican than the state (one GOP county and one rat county that’s not as large). But he’d be running against a local rat this time, Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard.
I have to agree to disagree. I just plain don’t think his alleged conservatism compared to McArthur (if he even is more conservative which I am not certain of) is worth what I believe is the serious electoral risk in nominating a perennial candidate that’s not very likable.
We already have 2 seats probably circling the drain (CA-31, which will be lost for the duration of it’s current existence, and NY-11, which if lost we should be able to take back in 2016, but it wouldn’t be a gimme).
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.