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The Numbers Don’t Lie: Jeb Can’t Win
Yahoo News via Daily Beast ^ | 05/05/2014 | By Michael Tomasky

Posted on 05/05/2014 7:28:48 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

As we know, the search for an “establishment” candidate has been on in the GOP for a while now, a savior who can rescue the party from Rand Paul or Ted Cruz. That man, of course, is Jeb Bush. Last week on Hardball, Kathleen Parker said he is definitely running. She’s a conservative columnist but not a wacko, has establishment GOP credentials and Florida ties to boot. And she spoke with the air of someone who had had this nugget leaked to her specifically so that she would go out on national TV and blurt it out.

So take the idea of a Bush candidacy seriously. He’ll get many of the biggest donors and most plugged-in operatives, and he’ll immediately be spoken of by the media as a, if not the, GOP frontrunner.

So far, so normal. But here’s where things get interesting. Historically, “establishment” in this context also basically means “most formidable” and “most electable.” Look at the track record. Mitt Romney was the establishment candidate in 2012, John McCain in 2008, Jeb’s brother in 2000. Two of these three never became president, but there’s no doubt that all three were the best the GOP had to offer in their given years. Who would have run better than McCain in 2008? Maybe, possibly Romney himself. But not Mike Huckabee or Ron Paul. And 2012’s lineup besides Romney was comic relief. Any one of them couldn’t have topped 200 electoral votes. And Dubya, of course, won. (Well, “won,” but that’s a different column.)

It’s an iron law of presidential politics: The establishment candidate is, almost by definition, the most formidable candidate. Well, I guess iron ain’t what it used to be, because here’s the funny thing: Jeb Bush is not any stronger against Hillary Clinton

(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016; 2016election; 2016gopprimary; 2016polls; amnesty; bush2016; deport; deportjebbush; designatedloser; gop; jeb2016; jebbush
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To: Impy; RitaOK

“I gotta oppose Rand...”

No, no you don’t. He will be the GOP candidate that will attract both the potheads AND the Pick Perry gay cowboy constituencies that will lead to victory.


61 posted on 05/06/2014 5:25:09 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (Khent is not stable... be advised...)
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To: GOPsterinMA

Love or hate Paul, he’s still by far the most radical about the budget. An overweight government will, surprise surprise, soon learn to throw its weight around.


62 posted on 05/06/2014 5:27:14 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (Embrace the Lion of Judah and He will roar for you and teach you to roar too. See my page.)
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To: Bratch

I guess you wouldn’t vote for Ronald Reagan either...you know, the guy that:

1. Allowed abortion in CA.
2. Allowed “no fault” divorce in CA.
3. As POTUS, signed an amnesty bill into law.


63 posted on 05/06/2014 5:27:51 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (Khent is not stable... be advised...)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

Great point!


64 posted on 05/06/2014 5:28:34 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (Khent is not stable... be advised...)
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To: savedbygrace

“The only reason I am still registered Republican so so I can vote against any GOPe candidates “

Then why don’t you be more honest and get out of the republican party.


65 posted on 05/06/2014 5:45:20 AM PDT by staytrue
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To: staytrue; savedbygrace

Hey turd ball Savedbygrace is doing the right thing voting against GOPe party candidate. You are treading the ZOT line be careful, statist bootlickers never do well.


66 posted on 05/06/2014 5:52:01 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Lazamataz

“Cruz.
Gowdy.
Lee.”

Gowdy ? Never heard of him. Lee ? Barely heard of him.

Both need to run and finish 2nd then have the name recognition for 2020.

Cruz has name recognition. He would easily finish 2nd in 2016 and be in line for 2020. But the inexperience tag would hurt him in 2016. He looks more like a 2020 candidate.

2016 is looking a lot like 1968 only with the parties reversed. Hillary is looking a lot like Nixon. I mean who is more Nixonion than Hillary. Bush is looking a lot like Humphrey. Martin O’Malley is taking the place of Spiro Agnew. And a possible 3rd party run will take the place of George Wallace.

Nixon aka Hillary eeks out a win.


67 posted on 05/06/2014 5:57:13 AM PDT by staytrue
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To: central_va

“Hey turd ball Savedbygrace is doing the right thing voting against GOPe party candidate.”

You call me a turd ball and I am to be zotted ?

Anybody can vote for who ever they please.

However I don’t think a person should be in a party to vote against the party all the time.


68 posted on 05/06/2014 5:59:18 AM PDT by staytrue
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To: staytrue

IF the two (or three) candidates are BOTH running in the GOP primary then it is impossible to vote against the GOP? GET IT?


69 posted on 05/06/2014 6:10:28 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: central_va

she said

“Come November, I will vote, but will not vote for any race with a GOPe candidate.”

Sorry but we win 90% of the primaries. That is how you become the establishment.

She is saying she will not vote in the general election for what she claims is her party 90% of the time.

That means to me, she should find herself another party.


70 posted on 05/06/2014 6:16:46 AM PDT by staytrue
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To: randita; GOPsterinMA

Walker’s been to Iowa, I think, he is mentioned a lot. A good reelection margin would be a boon to him.

I detest Perry, he made Bush seem articulate.


71 posted on 05/06/2014 6:39:38 AM PDT by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: staytrue
That means to me, she should find herself another party.

Sorry that is what you GOPe boot lickers want. To ditch people like her. To bad you can't have your way.

72 posted on 05/06/2014 6:40:14 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: savedbygrace
To ditch people like her.

Apologies, not sure if you are a him or a her.

73 posted on 05/06/2014 6:44:45 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: staytrue
Gowdy ? Never heard of him.

You should come to a website known as Free Republic! We talk about him all the time! :)

74 posted on 05/06/2014 6:55:50 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Early 2009 to 7/21/2013 - RIP my little girl Cathy. You were the best cat ever. You will be missed.)
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To: Impy

“His Rickness” exudes sexiness!

OTOH, you’re right, he makes “W” look like a charter MENSA member.


75 posted on 05/06/2014 7:22:45 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (Khent is not stable... be advised...)
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To: GOPsterinMA; Impy

It’s the electorate I don’t recognize, nevermind the candidates. HA!

How about the Florida boys?

I read only a headline where Rubio just wants to come in second! Probably behind Jeb Bush coming in first. ,!


76 posted on 05/06/2014 7:48:48 AM PDT by RitaOK ( VIVA CHRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming.)
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To: staytrue
That means to me, she should find herself another party.

To me, that means you should try to earn her vote so you don't keep losing elections with your candidates. What will you do to make that happen?

77 posted on 05/06/2014 7:57:20 AM PDT by Colonel_Flagg ("Compromise" means you've already decided you lost.)
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To: RitaOK; Impy

Walker, Rande, Cruz, Pence - all worthwhile candidates.

Bush, Rubio, etc. - yuck.


78 posted on 05/06/2014 8:00:38 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (Khent is not stable... be advised...)
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To: Colonel_Flagg

She does not have an open mind.

We will go after the persuadable people first.

Do you want to “look me in the eye” and say she is persuadable ?

She has pledged to never vote for GOPe no matter what.

Even most democrats are not that hard core.


79 posted on 05/06/2014 8:04:11 AM PDT by staytrue
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To: staytrue

I see.


80 posted on 05/06/2014 8:05:16 AM PDT by Colonel_Flagg ("Compromise" means you've already decided you lost.)
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