Looks like the war will start this week.
Nobody knows if Ukraine will fight. If they do, and go after Russian units in the east and south, it will be interesting to see what Russian body counts are. These are the numbers (of GI dead) from Iraq:
Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2003 | 0 | 0 | 92 | 80 | 42 | 36 | 49 | 43 | 33 | 47 | 110 | 48 | 580 |
2004 | 52 | 23 | 52 | 140 | 84 | 50 | 58 | 75 | 87 | 68 | 141 | 76 | 906 |
2005 | 127 | 60 | 39 | 52 | 88 | 83 | 58 | 85 | 52 | 99 | 86 | 68 | 897 |
2006 | 64 | 58 | 34 | 82 | 79 | 63 | 46 | 66 | 77 | 111 | 78 | 115 | 873 |
2007 | 86 | 85 | 82 | 117 | 131 | 108 | 89 | 88 | 70 | 40 | 40 | 25 | 961 |
2008 | 40 | 30 | 40 | 52 | 21 | 31 | 13 | 23 | 25 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 322 |
2009 | 16 | 18 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 150 |
2010 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 60 |
2011 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 54 |
2012 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
We were losing dozens of men a month pretty much right after "Mission Accomplished". And these numbers were from an adversary (Sunni Arabs) that was at most, 20% of the Iraqi population (~25m in 2003).
It looks like the western temporary coup government will do whatever it takes to stop a referendum.