Posted on 05/01/2014 9:22:46 PM PDT by Zhang Fei
Ukrainian government forces are reported to have launched an operation in the city of Sloviansk.
The city is a stronghold for pro-Russian separatists who are exerting increasing control over the eastern regions of the country.
Separatists in the city and Russian television channels are reporting that the city is being stormed.
News agencies report gunfire, explosions and a military helicopter firing on the outskirts of the city.
The BBC's Sarah Rainsford, in eastern Ukraine, has spoken to Russian separatists who says fighting is taking place at checkpoints on the outskirts of the city - but she adds there is no independent confirmation of this.
(Excerpt) Read more at bbc.com ...
Looks like the war will start this week.
Nobody knows if Ukraine will fight. If they do, and go after Russian units in the east and south, it will be interesting to see what Russian body counts are. These are the numbers (of GI dead) from Iraq:
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 0 | 0 | 92 | 80 | 42 | 36 | 49 | 43 | 33 | 47 | 110 | 48 | 580 |
| 2004 | 52 | 23 | 52 | 140 | 84 | 50 | 58 | 75 | 87 | 68 | 141 | 76 | 906 |
| 2005 | 127 | 60 | 39 | 52 | 88 | 83 | 58 | 85 | 52 | 99 | 86 | 68 | 897 |
| 2006 | 64 | 58 | 34 | 82 | 79 | 63 | 46 | 66 | 77 | 111 | 78 | 115 | 873 |
| 2007 | 86 | 85 | 82 | 117 | 131 | 108 | 89 | 88 | 70 | 40 | 40 | 25 | 961 |
| 2008 | 40 | 30 | 40 | 52 | 21 | 31 | 13 | 23 | 25 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 322 |
| 2009 | 16 | 18 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 150 |
| 2010 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 60 |
| 2011 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 54 |
| 2012 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
We were losing dozens of men a month pretty much right after "Mission Accomplished". And these numbers were from an adversary (Sunni Arabs) that was at most, 20% of the Iraqi population (~25m in 2003).
Anyways, noob Obama Vs competent, experienced Putin. I think its time to consider secondary protocols and head for backup quarters off the grid.
Well, I know some folk of Ukrainian descent here in the UK (they emigrated here post war). I can tell you there is an AWFUL lot of anti-Russian feeling in the Ukraine.
My advice to the Ukrainians, don’t trust the American or Euro elite, talk a good fight but don’t sacrifice yourself just to die over some Eastern ex-Ukrainian dump of a city.
No one else seems to remember this, but I remember when the Iraq war took a terrible turn. It was right after a The Swimmer’s “quagmire” speech.
Big problem with the comparison is that we were and are hamstrung by absurd ROE. The Russians, on the other hand, kidnap and murder people for saying something bad about Czar Putin. Genocide does wonders against rebels.
I second that advice. It’s best for everyone, except the corrupt governments and banks, if Ukraine just backs off.
These aren't the residents of Slovyansk. They're Kremlin stooges run by Russian GRU.
I think Ukraine should have the right, like any other nation, to defend its sovereignty from bandits.
It looks like the western temporary coup government will do whatever it takes to stop a referendum.
Saddam had planned the Insurgency before Baghdad fell. It started at the end of Ashura which coincided with Easter Sunday, 2004. I was in the Shia south and the Shia residents were warning us during a trip to Najaf that Friday.
It looks like the Russians will do whatever it takes to stop a nationwide election in Ukraine, including schedule a rigged referendum, following by Russian annexation just two weeks before that election.
Green Ukrainian troops are learning on the job in this operation. Given that they are up against Russian spec ops, they will take casualties. However, since these spec ops personnel don't have the benefit of either air or artillery support until Russia officially invades, Ukrainian troops should be able to kill or capture all of them. It's only a matter of time. Overall, the Ukrainians need to put as many young men under arms with as much ammo as they can scrounge up as soon as possible. Once the Russians invade, conducting any kind of outdoor training will be difficult, since they will be under the threat of drone attack 24/7. However, if the Russians do invade, I expect NATO will provide Ukraine with an endless supply of LAW's, Javelins and Stingers to make Russia's incursion as painful as possible.
And how would your scenerio lead to a fair referendum to elect a government to replace the temporary coup government in Kiev?
My theory is that if our units had killed Saddam's army instead of bypassing so many of Iraq's army units to take the capital, the insurgency would have been one big fizzle instead of dragging out for years. A big war of attrition at the beginning would have killed the vast majority of the men who were willing to fight, thereby preventing the multi-year war of attrition that occurred right before we got fed up and left.
The elections haven't been postponed. They just have to be conducted in conjunction with a campaign to eject Russian spec ops personnel armed with automatic weapons and MANPADS currently holding Ukrainian government buildings.
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