Ukraine crisis: Government forces 'move on Sloviansk'

BBC ^ | 2 May 2014 Last updated at 00:15 ET | BBC

[Zhang Fei]

Yet another skirmish in the struggle for Ukraine.

[Forward the Light Brigade]

Looks like the war will start this week.

[Zhang Fei]

Looks like the war will start this week.

Nobody knows if Ukraine will fight. If they do, and go after Russian units in the east and south, it will be interesting to see what Russian body counts are. These are the numbers (of GI dead) from Iraq:

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2003	0	0	92	80	42	36	49	43	33	47	110	48	580
2004	52	23	52	140	84	50	58	75	87	68	141	76	906
2005	127	60	39	52	88	83	58	85	52	99	86	68	897
2006	64	58	34	82	79	63	46	66	77	111	78	115	873
2007	86	85	82	117	131	108	89	88	70	40	40	25	961
2008	40	30	40	52	21	31	13	23	25	14	17	16	322
2009	16	18	9	19	25	15	8	7	10	9	11	3	150
2010	6	6	7	8	6	8	4	3	7	2	2	1	60
2011	6	3	2	11	2	15	5	0	4	4	2	0	54
2012	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

We were losing dozens of men a month pretty much right after "Mission Accomplished". And these numbers were from an adversary (Sunni Arabs) that was at most, 20% of the Iraqi population (~25m in 2003).

[TheArizona]

How much you wanna bet Obama is running weapons to the Soviet separatists?

Anyways, noob Obama Vs competent, experienced Putin. I think its time to consider secondary protocols and head for backup quarters off the grid.

[familyop]

Ukrainians must have a sufficient desire for freedom in order to earn our allied support and avoid becoming part of a new Russian group of slave nations. Poland earned it, and so have others.

IMF Warns Ukraine: Fight For The East Or No Money
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3150908/posts

[Vanders9]

Well, I know some folk of Ukrainian descent here in the UK (they emigrated here post war). I can tell you there is an AWFUL lot of anti-Russian feeling in the Ukraine.

[junta]

My advice to the Ukrainians, don’t trust the American or Euro elite, talk a good fight but don’t sacrifice yourself just to die over some Eastern ex-Ukrainian dump of a city.

[demshateGod]

No one else seems to remember this, but I remember when the Iraq war took a terrible turn. It was right after a The Swimmer’s “quagmire” speech.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

Big problem with the comparison is that we were and are hamstrung by absurd ROE. The Russians, on the other hand, kidnap and murder people for saying something bad about Czar Putin. Genocide does wonders against rebels.

[demshateGod]

I second that advice. It’s best for everyone, except the corrupt governments and banks, if Ukraine just backs off.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

Residents of Sloviansk seem to be doing a good job defending their city from the onslaught, so far.

These aren't the residents of Slovyansk. They're Kremlin stooges run by Russian GRU.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

I think Ukraine should have the right, like any other nation, to defend its sovereignty from bandits.

[grania]

Looks like the war will start this week

It looks like the western temporary coup government will do whatever it takes to stop a referendum.

[Justa]

Saddam had planned the Insurgency before Baghdad fell. It started at the end of Ashura which coincided with Easter Sunday, 2004. I was in the Shia south and the Shia residents were warning us during a trip to Najaf that Friday.

[Zhang Fei]

It looks like the western temporary coup government will do whatever it takes to stop a referendum.

It looks like the Russians will do whatever it takes to stop a nationwide election in Ukraine, including schedule a rigged referendum, following by Russian annexation just two weeks before that election.

Green Ukrainian troops are learning on the job in this operation. Given that they are up against Russian spec ops, they will take casualties. However, since these spec ops personnel don't have the benefit of either air or artillery support until Russia officially invades, Ukrainian troops should be able to kill or capture all of them. It's only a matter of time. Overall, the Ukrainians need to put as many young men under arms with as much ammo as they can scrounge up as soon as possible. Once the Russians invade, conducting any kind of outdoor training will be difficult, since they will be under the threat of drone attack 24/7. However, if the Russians do invade, I expect NATO will provide Ukraine with an endless supply of LAW's, Javelins and Stingers to make Russia's incursion as painful as possible.

[grania]

And how would your scenerio lead to a fair referendum to elect a government to replace the temporary coup government in Kiev?

[Zhang Fei]

Saddam had planned the Insurgency before Baghdad fell. It started at the end of Ashura which coincided with Easter Sunday, 2004. I was in the Shia south and the Shia residents were warning us during a trip to Najaf that Friday.

My theory is that if our units had killed Saddam's army instead of bypassing so many of Iraq's army units to take the capital, the insurgency would have been one big fizzle instead of dragging out for years. A big war of attrition at the beginning would have killed the vast majority of the men who were willing to fight, thereby preventing the multi-year war of attrition that occurred right before we got fed up and left.

[Zhang Fei]

And how would your scenerio lead to a fair referendum to elect a government to replace the temporary coup government in Kiev?

The elections haven't been postponed. They just have to be conducted in conjunction with a campaign to eject Russian spec ops personnel armed with automatic weapons and MANPADS currently holding Ukrainian government buildings.