Posted on 04/06/2014 11:34:34 AM PDT by expat_panama
This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here and tomorrow morning we'll go on with our--
Open invitation continues always for idea-input for the thread, this being a joint effort works well.
Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket.
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====================== A heck of a week, gold'n'silver lept back up and stocks plunged back down --10 year performance: (click pic to enlarge
Of course, while that's all well and good for what's been happening til now (telling us what we shudda done) but the plan we need now is for what we're supposed to do tomorrow. IBD TV mentions that last Friday's drop means the market's officially in a correction now, and they say it means we got to reduce holdings and show patience with new buys. |
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Makes sense considering that stock price patterns are typically self-similar (English translation: "the trend is your friend"), but for the heck of it I checked out past IBD trend calls and saw that recent history showed--
---that correction beginnings have been great buying opportunities. Don't get me wrong, the IBD people aren't idiots and stock timing is not best done by throwing darts at a colander. The IBD editors stress that everyone's got his own set of goals for return risk/v/reward, and we all make our own choices.
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Let's compare choices; I'll start. My choice is see what Monday brings and my stocks will either work for me or get replaced by EFT's (YAHOO's got a neat eft finder/screener here).
Sure, moral hazard's important and always there, and the idea of good government is to do what it has to for survival and still make sure that individual's actions have consequences.
OK that's good government and these days we got bad government, and my money got taxed and given to UAW thugs as a political payoff. At the same time the article Wyatt posted above was talking banks that got borrowed TARP funds --and paid back w/ interest. iirc GM never got TARP funds because we all would've been better off with GM going into Chapter 11. The banking sector has to be heavily regulated for monetary policy and the bond purchases and reserve req'mnt increases was more business as usual.
mho.
That said, I believe the fundamentals are good long-term (Obama will be hitting the road and will no longer able to flood the airways with propaganda to hide the effects of his horrendous policies). Underneath this very weak recovery is a great deal of strength that will wait for a change in political outlook before becoming manifest.
As to biotech, I believe the fundamentals are still very good but the choppiness of the market will cause even more irrational oversell and then overbuy, still leaving opportunity for making money on the swings. I read the tea leaves that we all read and then listen to my gut. I often sit out a swing because I can't read it and sometimes I even call it wrong. And this 2014 choppiness has definitely changed things.
But the volatility is still there and I still see the potential in biotech as massive (over time). With China and India coming online, the potential market for biotech solution is hard for me to get my mind around.
For example, take Sovaldi. There are 6+ million hep C sufferers in Egypt (due to Egypt's sloppy campaign to stamp out schistosomiasis), 3+ million in the U.S. and 150+- million in the world. Even if other drugs are released that are more effective and cheaper that Sovaldi, the potential for Sovaldi is still mind boggling.
Anyway, still working on my first cup of coffee, so my thinking might be a bit wacky.;-)
Come to think of it (CTTOI?) this is yet another example of confusing price trend signals. We should either have goodnews=goodnews like during a recovery when stocks are bid up with folks going back to work, or we should have goodnews=badnews like with an aging expansion where stocks bid up on the Fed lowering rates on bad econ reports.
Maybe what we got here is an aging recovery that still hasn’t gotten any where so signs keep getting scrambled...
But then came to see that Microsoft and Amazon (check out Amazon Web Services) and others are already building massive operations which connect their business clients to the cloud.
Frankly, I was stunned to find out what Amazon was doing. I thought the cloud was down the road a bit. But with Amazon, it is already here.
Wind Energy Blows Through Records
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/041014/wind-energy-blows-through-records-fan-wwd-nee-xel.aspx
“Rising Market Share, Lower Costs
For the wind power industry in the U.S., 2013 was a great year. This past January, wind was responsible for 4.8% of America’s electricity used. While that amount seems small- especially when compared to coal and natural gas- this percentage was the highest January on record and eclipsed last year’s record amount. According to American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), wind generation capacity in the U.S. has grown from just 25,000 megawatts (MW) to over 61,000 MW in just five years. That’s a 140% growth rate.
The key for that torrid growth has been some major transmission upgrades as well as falling costs for wind power.
Texas recently completed its ambitious Competitive Renewable Energy Zone (CREZ) project earlier this year- which helped build-out new long distance transmission lines designed to take wind energy and place it into the grid. That helped Texas see a huge surge in its wind generation capacity. Likewise, similar build-outs are occurring in Oklahoma, Colorado and the Midwest.
At the same time, the cost of wind energy has fallen by 43% over the last four years. In some markets, that cost is now below coal and natural gas without tax subsidies. Globally, average onshore wind power costs the same as natural gas at $84 per megawatt hour. That’s important considering the U.S. is thinking about exporting much of our natural gas bounty overseas.
The additional grid build-outs and lower costs- plus the fact that the expired tax credits for wind energy are now back on the table- has the AWEA estimating that nearly 60,000 MW of new wind energy projects could be coming to the U.S. over the next few years. That’s basically double current capacity. While these projects will take time to complete, it does insure steady growth for the renewable energy source.”
Mostly coming out of DC.
And some institutional investors who stand ready to buy when the retail market (such as it is) panics and wants to sell out...particularly when the institutional market can pour gasoline on the panicked fire sale of said retail investors.
And my advice to retail investors...don't panic. Just hang tough.
I usually buy on the drops...and the bigger the drop, the more I buy. I learned this by spending a little time on the trading floor of the firm where I worked.
Institutional investors don't care whether you are retail or institutional. They'll take your cash or give you cash for your shares...no matter who you are.
Seems like there are about to be some new buying opportunities coming up. What happened today is that the major indexes slammed down into their support levels...
...and the final numbers just in say the action came in spiking volume. That means we're probably going to be seeing the broader market going down to the next support level. Funny, watching the drop while being totally in cash somehow reminds me of sitting inside next to a warm fireplace while there's an all-time blizzard raging outside...
Don't get me wrong, I know full well that there are a lot of sharp traders who can profit big buying on the downside, it's just that I know I'm not one of them.
I too am mostly on the sidelines except for about 15-20% which has been hit hard. And I don't mind a bit. That is the risk we take.
You can't win it, if you aren't in it.
The funny thing is that this drop is not on any news or economic performance data.
It is on pure emotion.
I have a long view of this position.
When Obama was elected (particularly the second time), I thought our country and, indeed, our civilization was cooked.
I was wrong.
He's not a permanent fixture. And Socialism has never been able to sell itself to productive society.
Our culture will certainly struggle against these Marxist fools but we will win in the end.
Invest accordingly.
The world economy, the free market world, is about to explode into a new tomorrow.
Marx cannot stop it, the EU cannot stop it...luke-warm socialism cannot stop it.
Humankind wants the right to produce and sell that which it produces.
And the world cannot...will not...stand in its way.
Of course, there is that Brave New World stuff out there.
But Liberals? Their goose is cooked.
If you are not a big buyer, at least don't be a big seller. Sit tight and ride the big traders back to the top.
It's a lot like hunting whales. Hang on tight.
Your post isn’t clear to me. What we do know is that TARP wasn’t doled out equally, equitably or to all banks. It was a political solution in which government chose winners and losers. Where are S&Ls or regional banks? The S&Ls disappeared in the last RE crisis and we’re losing regional banks now, why? Big likes big.
That’s bad government and no thank you. All the things that caused the last RE crisis are still in place. I hope they move to end government mortgages and go to a system of last in line mortgage insurance, if at all. Let the market manage the banks and let competition rule. Then consumers will be king.
Too big to fail banks got there via government assistance and welfare. It’s a nonsense position to pretend that they’ve managed this crisis well. They caused it and helped their friends profit from it.
Everyone's abuzz on yesterday's dive, even while this morning's metals and index futures are flat Lots of news:World equities hit two-week low as tech stocks retreat Global equities slipped to a two-week low on Friday as a sell-off on Wall Street led by technology and biotech shares and triggered by concerns that valuations are over stretched spread to Asia and Europe. The MSCI All-Country World index fell 0.4 percent by 0759 GMT to a two-week low, while the MSCI Europe index dropped 0.8 percent. "The sell-off is the result of increasing concerns about the future earnings growth," said Christian Stocker, equity…
Gartman: Stay out of stocks for a month or so Dennis Gartman of "The Gartman Letter" says he's staying out of stocks for a month or more. CNBC…
Two New Studies Raise Red Flags on Obamacare Barack Obama wasted little time last week declaring victory as the deadline for enrollment in Affordable Care Act exchanges expired – well, more or less, anyway. The White House celebrated as it announced that 7.1 million consumers had signed up for health insurance through the federal and state… The Fiscal Times…
Jeff Saut: The bull market will survive a rough spring Raymond James Financial's Jeff Saut isn't shaken by recent market volatiliy, here's why he still sees stocks going higher Breakout…
This is the make-or-break level for biotech It's the sector that has been making investors nervous all month. And now, it's fallen to a critical technical level. Talking Numbers…
Family Dollar to Close 370 Stores, Cut Jobs Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO) , facing an increase in retail competition, is closing about 370 stores and conducting a review to improve its business. Family Dollar, whose largest shareholder is billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson, is contending with more competition from rival discount… …
5 Reasons Why the NASD Selloff Spells CAUTION - Adam Shell, USA Today
Why This Stock Market Needs Correction - Jonathan Burton, MarketWatch
Here's the Weird Thing About Tumbling Stock Market - Joe Weisenthal, BI
--oh yeah, HAPPY FRIDAY!!!!
Next up? Credit Unions. I have had some personal discussions with some in the know, and there is fear these will be the next targets. These folks who provide such a great service to all of us, just don't fit the Pottersville business model of the megabanks.
Exactly, the subject of how the crisis was handled drew lots of controversy, debate, and passion --and after all this time I'm still unable to make simple the difference in '08 - '09 between the monetary and the fiscal policy decisions --that difference is something that was never even really understood until the 1940's.
We're together on the fact that tax'n'spending went down the poopshoot big time starting back with the 110th congress, and it continued though GM, O'care, etc. --and that's the fiscal policy package we hate. I'm seeing the past few years of monetary policy as being nicely done. We're very fortunate that we got spared a deflation threat not seen since the one in the thirties --one that arguably resulted in the deaths of tens of millions. TARP was monetary policy; the goal was maintaining the money supply for survival of the Republic. It worked, and all that silly "equality" stuff was stuff for other people to worry about some other day.
Later, a lot of the confusion was caused by the slimy left-wingers who wanted to cash in on TARP's successes and pretend that somehow tax'n'spending (fiscal policy) for GM, O'care, pottery lessons on Morocco, etc. etc. were somehow just the same thing as TARP and just as important. We can agree that even though government's bad when it makes us lose our Doctor, it's good when makes sure the dollar functions so our Marines can have enough ammunition.
No matter what though, it's nice to know I'm not the only morning person on the FR ;)
During the crisis three regional bankers each independently said they felt targeted by the FDIC. All three banks are gone and absorbed by either a large national bank or private investment fund took over their assets.
The bankers who got TARP loved it and paid it back as it fit their agenda. They got the money because their boards or presidents were politically connected. They live not because they deserve to, but via crony capitalism. That’s wrong.
We need a dynamic commercial credit market, not one made up of some monsters known as TBTF Banks. That’s stupid. The junk bond market of the past shows you don’t have to be a giant international bank to make deals come together.
Kickstarter exists because of ancient SEC rules that don’t apply to the modern world. If you are an early investor in a Kickstarter venture you get a doodad, but if you were an owner you’d have made money. The law itself is causing these market distortions.
Wonder what it is, seems unlikely to be PPI or Mich Consumer Sentiment...
Emotion... Nothing’s driving it. PPI won’t help though:
http://www.businessinsider.com/ppi-march-2014-2014-4
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(click pic to enlarge)