Posted on 03/28/2014 1:12:55 PM PDT by Jim Robinson
President Barack Obama is getting anxious that Russian president Vladimir Putin is on the point of invading Ukraine.
“You've seen a range of troops massing along [the Russian/Ukraine] border under the guise of military exercises,” he told CBS News last night. “But these are not what Russia would normally be doing. And, you know, it may simply be an effort to intimidate Ukraine. Or it may be that they've got additional plans.”
So far, the West has deployed its economic and diplomatic might to punish and deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from those “additional plans” -- invading the rest of Ukraine.
Yet the West’s strongest option remains untouched: Military action.
While Russia rolled its forces into Crimea, the West clearly has kept its armies confined to barracks. So far the U.S. and its NATO allies have merely offered Ukraine limited military support and have flexed their military muscles in other ways.
Earlier this month, as the crisis in Ukraine escalated, the U.S. announced training exercises in Poland for F16 fighter planes and C130 transport planes. And generals in NATO headquarters in Brussels are planning for what could come next.
An estimated 30,000 Russian troops are currently positioned near Ukraine’s eastern border. Russia’s defense minister assured his American counterpart last week that the Russian Army will not move further into Ukraine. But Ukrainians – and many observers elsewhere – fear a Russian invasion is possible.
“The force that is at the Ukrainian border now to the east is very, very sizable and very, very ready,” said General Philip Breedlove, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander.
A Russian push further into Ukraine could leave the U.S. and NATO in a tight spot...
A Ukraine-Russia fight would be a rout...
(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...
No golf courses there worth a darn, so no problem.
Obama would say “Good, just make sure you take Sarah Palin into custody”.
Yes we can! LOL
Europe has long thought we’re just warmongering hoards anyway, so the fact we’re now rendered irrelevant should be a source of happiness to them. I’m sure they’ll apply all the requisite force for the barrage of letters of deep, deep, deep concern to follow.
I am no general, so armchair is the best description of my thoughts.
However, the question is whether or not Putin is willing to roll over top of American troops if they’re already on the ground in the Ukraine. Next, would east Ukrainians stand up for Ukraine or for Russia, because Putin wants a clear pathway to the Crimea that is now in their hands.
So, would Putin roll over already present American troops? Their purpose would be cannon fodder initially, but to put them there would mean a commitment had been made to back them up with all out firepower if the trip wire were tripped.
How to get a credible force there in a brief amount of time. The initial force couldn’t be ship-borne. That would be no surprise. It would have to be a large force air dropped to a critical location regarding the massing Russian forces.
The only possible locations to launch nap of the earth airborne troops would be ideally from Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Moldova, or Bulgaria. Would they even allow it? Certainly not if they saw spinelessness in charge of America.
The Ranger Regiment and a quick reaction brigade from the 82d would be the initial cannon fodder trip wire.
Would Putin attack or would he flinch? To force him to flinch, those troops would have to attack on any cross border incursion by Russian troops. We would have to be clear that this would escalate into the stratosphere if those troops were brought under fire in any way.
And then we’d be stuck doing another Germany for the next 50 years.
Jim,
The Russians have said their policy is any attack on their forces with conventional weapons by a major power will result in an immediate response with nuclear weapons. Disbelieve them if you will, just stating their policy.
It doesn’t make sense for Russia to keep 80,000 troops massed on Ukraine’s border for too long. However, from Russia’s perspective, Friday evening is probably the worst time of the week to mount a big invasion, since global markets have closed for the weekend.
Would Vladimir’s friends at Gazprom ever forgive him if he didn’t schedule his invasion to create the greatest global buying panic in the oil and gas sectors possible?
Sunday afternoon would be ideal. First, the troops can surge over the line, creating a fog of war confusing enough to make Russian-instigated rumors of vital pipeline shutdowns credible, first to Asian investors, then on to frantic Europeans and Americans continually bidding up prices as the crisis builds.
As Russian oligarch Rahminov Emanuelsky once advised, never let a crisis go to waste that can result in a windfall of petrodollars for Mother Russia.
Yeah, well, the democratically elected government of Russia's most important strategic ally and neighbor isn't normally violently overthrown by Obama/Soros/sodomite EU funded, firebomb throwing insurrectionists and replaced by a Globalist Bankster puppet junta. What the hell do people expect Russia to do? Send a congratulatory fruit basket.
He must be channeling Rahm Emmanuel.
5.56mm
Yet the West’s strongest option remains untouched: Military action.
A weakened, under funded and demoralized military is hardly the strongest option.
We need a leader before we go to war. We have none now..
According to orthodox Russian military doctrine, they need all of those ports on the Black Sea AND THEY NEED TO BE DEFENSIBLE BY LAND to be militarily viable.
As long as Ukrain was (ostensibly but not in reality) neutral Russia wasfine with that. Ukraine served double duty acting as a buffer. That was tue best possible state of affairs for the Ukrainians and really for everyone. As soon as the Eurocrats began working to politically subvert Ukraine towards joining the EU the Russian response became carved in stone.
This isn't a situation where there are a wide variety of possible outcomes. There are only two.
1. Russia takes Crimea and the connecting part of the Ukraine.
Or
2. What is left of the west holds what remains of Ukraine and Crimea afte the entirety of Russia's conventional and WMD arsenals are completely exhausted.
I have serious doubts as to America's ability to pull Europe's fat out of the fire in the wake of Congress aiding Obama into throwing the Middle East and North Africa into war including our up to now allies.
Who would be stupid enough to join a coalition with us as part of it, even to stop the Russians?
Russians don’t take a dump without a plan son.
I agree that the US has no remotely good military option in the Ukraine. That said, what I wrote was my thoughts on how to possibly make Putin flinch.
I agree with you. Everyone would think Obama was bluffing, and Putin would just maneuver around those troops and not engage them.
If Obama actually ordered the tripwire to attack a Russian incursion, most everybody in the world would be absolutely amazed.
But Rangers & a Quick Reaction Brigade is about the only course of action I can see on the ground. It would be a suicidal and/or stupid choice as a course of action, but at least it is a military option short of an initial attack.
It requires Putin to respond.
“U.S. Military Experts to Iran then Russia. We surrender.”
[Also see Gates under Bush concerning Iran.]
That’s a plan, but maybe surprise and risking large numbers of casualties would be unnecessary. Our Navy is already there along with nearby air and other support in various places. By Russia’s reactions to other events of the past decade or so, Russia wouldn’t get in the way.
But maybe the main problems are the obvious, bipartisan lack of American will to fight (markets, international trade, fuel prices, our Baby Boomer regime, socialist political factions fighting each other over the pile of recirculating debt, etc.) and lack of military budget. There’s also the obvious fear that China will move on something, if our military forces get involved in much other action. We’ve see a lack of will to fight Iran for over ten years.
What was once taught as being “unthinkable” in leadership doctrine is now routinely and publicly expressed, even by prior servicemen, including officers. The enemy is not only being allowed to build up. He’s allowed to move on allies.
Are they allies? That’s another previous assumption that’s loudly questioned in contemporary implications in bipartisan political speech.
Other recent news (shortly after the events in Ukraine)...
Kiev agitators ‘trained in Poland’ claims Putin
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3129486/posts
As Ukraine tension flares, Russia test-fires ballistic missile
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3129501/posts
China Fields New Intermediate-Range Nuclear Missile (Gertz)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3129390/posts?page=6#6
N.Korea Fires Multiple Launch Rockets
http://freerepublic.com/focus/news/3129517/posts
Putin Adviser Urges Dumping US Bonds In Reaction to Sanctions
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3129485/posts
That’s a great idea. Since they were originally designed to destroy Soviet tanks and the Air Farce wants to get rid of them what better way than sending the squadrons to Ukraine? We can do the usual show and tell while maintaining we’re demonstrating capabilities for a potential sale.
After the Ukrainians “steal” them, we can shrug our shoulders and file a compliant with the local police.
“Someone who isn’t an arm chair general and has some military experience please explain to this old Marine what the hell the US can do militarily in this situation. Because for the life of me I see no military option here. We are coming out of 13 years of constant combat operations. Our troops are tired, our equipment is beat up with zero prospect of replacement anytime soon. Ask yourself this; Is this fight worth the death of just one more soldier, sailor, airman or Marine? I don’t think it is.”
On the ground, there is no option. By the time we start moving troops near there, russia will invade and already occupy Ukraine. Now if we had already stationed troops close by, we could move into Ukraine and the Russian troops would not invade.
What we are left with is air and naval superiority. We can blockade all sea trade with russia. And very few countries can withstand a full blockade due to the interconnectedness of the world economies.
We can also publically announce that we will provide air cover for Ukraine and against any russian invasion. That might deter the russians, or it might not.
We have no legal reason to put boot on the ground. It would be a great idea if Turkey went ahead and closed the Bosporus to Russian shipping. With the murder of a Tatar activist in the Crimea they now have grounds to take action.
That would greatly complicate life for Putin.
“Probable date of Russian action: April 8 @ approx 2 am local time. That would make Obama unreachable, since it would occur during the middle of the NCAA basketball championship.”
An intelligent guess as he invaded Georgia during opening ceremonies in Beijing 2008 while President Bush was in attendence.
5.56mm
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