According to orthodox Russian military doctrine, they need all of those ports on the Black Sea AND THEY NEED TO BE DEFENSIBLE BY LAND to be militarily viable.
As long as Ukrain was (ostensibly but not in reality) neutral Russia wasfine with that. Ukraine served double duty acting as a buffer. That was tue best possible state of affairs for the Ukrainians and really for everyone. As soon as the Eurocrats began working to politically subvert Ukraine towards joining the EU the Russian response became carved in stone.
This isn't a situation where there are a wide variety of possible outcomes. There are only two.
1. Russia takes Crimea and the connecting part of the Ukraine.
Or
2. What is left of the west holds what remains of Ukraine and Crimea afte the entirety of Russia's conventional and WMD arsenals are completely exhausted.
I have serious doubts as to America's ability to pull Europe's fat out of the fire in the wake of Congress aiding Obama into throwing the Middle East and North Africa into war including our up to now allies.
Who would be stupid enough to join a coalition with us as part of it, even to stop the Russians?
I agree that the US has no remotely good military option in the Ukraine. That said, what I wrote was my thoughts on how to possibly make Putin flinch.
I agree with you. Everyone would think Obama was bluffing, and Putin would just maneuver around those troops and not engage them.
If Obama actually ordered the tripwire to attack a Russian incursion, most everybody in the world would be absolutely amazed.
But Rangers & a Quick Reaction Brigade is about the only course of action I can see on the ground. It would be a suicidal and/or stupid choice as a course of action, but at least it is a military option short of an initial attack.
It requires Putin to respond.
Who would be stupid enough to join a coalition with us as part of it, even to stop the Russians?
Why is it any of our business whether the Russians are in or out of the Ukraine? At least why would this be something to form a “coalition” over, and face them down with tanks and troops - even if we could? We’d have to borrow money from the Chinese to do it. Don’t we have a big enough defitic as it is, and enough problems at home, so we don’t need to invent “crises” abroad?