Posted on 03/19/2014 6:48:50 AM PDT by ChildOfThe60s
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has a nearly 40-point lead over his primary challenger, Matt Bevin, in a new Republican survey of the Kentucky Senate GOP primary.
The survey, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for the pro-McConnell group Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, gives McConnell 61 percent support to Bevin’s 23 percent support.
That’s an increase in support from an early-February independent survey of the race, which showed McConnell ahead by only 26 points. But it’s actually a decrease from the last GOP survey of the race, conducted by Wenzel Strategies at the start of February, which gave him a 42-point lead.
It’s likely McConnell’s primary lead is somewhere between those two numbers — significant double-digits, still a favorable position just over two months out from Election Day.
The polling memo also notes McConnell maintains a 33-point lead over Bevin even among voters who say they’ve heard of the GOP challenger, an indication that, even if Bevin manages to increase his profile in the state, he’ll find it difficult to break ahead.
McConnell's persistently high unpopularity has given Democrats reason to believe he's one of the GOP's most vulnerable senators this cycle, but the new survey gives McConnell a surprisingly high approval rating among GOP primary voters, with 67 percent approving of his job performance, while just 25 percent view him unfavorably.
Bevin, in contrast, is seen favorably by just 21 percent of primary voters and unfavorably by 15 percent.
McConnell has sparked the ire of conservatives throughout his career but that frustration ran particularly high last month, when he was one of a handful of Republican senators to vote to raise the debt limit.
The fallout from the move was on display last week when McConnell received a lukewarm reception from activists at the Conservative Political Action Conference just outside of Washington, D.C.
But this survey, which was conducted Feb, 24-26, about 10 days after the vote, seems to indicate he still retains some good will with Republicans.
The survey was conducted among 400 likely Republican primary voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
McConnell is favored in his primary, and expected to encounter Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes in the general election in Kentucky.
Bevin is running radio ads pretty frequently, but not too many TV ads.
A few weeks ago, McConnell was FLOODING The airwaves... he even purchased local ads during the Super Bowl. But, he's slowed down now. I guess, they think Bevin is toast.
I've had a Bevin bumper sticker on my car for about a week now. Hope to get my yard sign soon.
When they think Bevin, they could be in for a possible surprise.
So what happened with Bevin’s campaign.
McConnell and his like is exactly why i will not vote for the GOP again.If there isn’t a Tea Party person in there i wont vote!Lets get this shooting war going before we,i get to old to fight these bastards.
Bevin is better candidate than the squirrels who ran against Cornyn. I doubt Matt will "disappear" in the final weeks of the campaign.
But, he is a relative unknown... he's never run for ANY office. So, he had zero name recognition. It's a HUGE hurdle for someone trying to take on the Minority Leader in the Senate.
...and that was with only 10% of eligible voters in the state making the effort to vote. If just 10% more would have gotten off their ass and voted in the primary, I have no doubt that Cornyn would be facing a runoff.
He did not even get 60% of the vote.
*********
That is correct. Cornyn only got 59.44% of the vote with the remainder split
amongst seven hopefuls with one getting 19.33% and another 10.71%.
It's pretty minimal, but... enough for Mitch to use it effectively. The two biggest negatives have been:
On his LinkedIn page, at the TOP HEADING, Bevin listed "MIT" on his education line. Further down the page, he listed the full details of the "MIT Sponsored" Executive MBA program. MIT has denied all affiliation with the group that ran the program. But, the program clearly DOES have MIT in their name, and MIT printed ON the diploma. And, the classes were taught in MIT-owned buildings. So, personally? I don't think it's such a big deal. MIT should protect their brand better. But, it sounds TERRIBLE when Mitch claims "Bevin lied on his resume about attending MIT".
That charge went unanswered FAR for too long. IMO, it hurt Bevin more than anything else.
The only other negative I've seen is: Bevin claims he is against government bailouts. But, during the 2008 crisis, he told investors in a letter that the TARP bailout was an "effective policy". I'm not sure those two positions are entirely contradictive...But, whatever... Mitch has made a big deal of it.
IMO, it's much ado about nothing. But, against a candidate about whom so little is known?? It's been killer.
Do you think Cornyn and the GOPe give a rat’s ass about whether they got 60% or not?? HELL NO!
All they needed was 50% plus 1, and they GOT it. Now, Cornyn is safe for another SIX YEARS!
I’m sick of people sugar-coating that loss. That was TEXAS! Losing that seat to a RINO was crushing.
It exposes our problem: Good people don’t want to run.
I live in PA but have donated to both Matt and Lee Bright in SC {against linda grammy} so it looks like Lee will be getting my money going forward {after the primary}.
Until then, I'll keep giving to both.
What ever the results it all comes down to an effect opponent
and there wasn’t one in the primary.
effect
s/b
effective
Sure it's not 140 percent? Or maybe even Eleventy-Skadillion percent?
The establishment GOP loves the Democrats so much, they even emulate the push-poll.
POS, huh?
Well, at least they brand correctly.
Good points. Another scary phenomenon I saw was that there are those who I thought were good conservatives supporting RINOs in fear of losing the seat to the dims. Cowardly approach that would have disgusted Reagan.
No doubt. I fear we have the same problem here in Kentucky. Nice enough guy, Bevin. But, it's a tough challenge for a political rookie.
Sadly though.. NO ONE, in any elected position would even THINK about taking on Mitch. The turtle OWNS the GOP in Kentucky.
I watched the senatorial primary in TX pretty closely, and two things happened. (1) Not one strong candidate among them, and (2) None gelled around one as the election approached. With these facts, Corny getting only 59% should have sent a pretty clear message.
You are wrong- they did not want to have to spend $6million in A PRIMARY - and even thoen only squeak out a narrow victory.
I understand your point, but if they spent nothing and got 90% of the vote, they would be elated. If they spend $6million and only get 59% they DO take notice.
Granted, they still are patting themsewlves on the back for the win, but they are not going to skip campaigning or spending on the next one.
I just wish they would campaign that hard against Democrat opponents, instead of primary opponents.
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