New doomsday poll: 99.9% risk of 2014 crash

Market Watch ^ | March 15, 2014 | by PAUL B. FARRELL

[Oldeconomybuyer]

Commentary: Black-swan crisis warning for now through mid-April.

SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. — Global risks are accelerating. This is our fourth major poll update of industry leaders: A critical review of their warnings from early last year when we first predicted a 87% risk of a crash: Bernanke’s Fed saw an “unsustainable bubble” ... Gross: “credit supernova” ... Gundlach: “kaboom ahead” ... Ellis: “Don’t own bonds” ... Shilling: “shocker” ... Roubini: “Prepare for perfect storm” ... Shiller: “Irrational exuberance is back” ... Schiff: “Doubling down” on “doomsday” prediction ... InvestmentNews’ warning 90,000 advisers: “tick, tick ... boom!”

[Oldeconomybuyer]

Definition of 'Black Swan'

An event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict. This term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor and former Wall Street trader.

[taxcontrol]

I’m already out of the market and into cash. Wish I could be in gold / silver but my 401K has limited options.

[VRW Conspirator]

Swan, swan, hummingbird, we are all free now...

oops, sorry, got carried away.

[Sarajevo]

Definition of Paul Farrell (MW writer) = dweeb.
He seems to be paid by the word and tends to write a lot of BS.

[txrefugee]

Nothing on earth goes up forever, so one of these days, these forecasts will be right. Of course, it will be too late to do anything about it then, so planting a vegetable garden for your family is always a good thing to do in spring.

[grobdriver]

I’m already out of the market and into cash.

Problem is (for me)... my "cash" option is bonds.

[RIghtwardHo]

Been reading this silliness for 20 years or more.

I guess if they say it long enough and it happens they get to say ... see, I told you so.

[Mark]

The title sounds like an Ivory soap commercial.

[taxcontrol]

Yeah man, that really sucks.

[RacerXSpeedRacer]

Mine too. I don’t believe ANY 401K has a true cash option. They all have bonds. While the safest and most conservative option, they are bonds. If the bond market tanks, then that options sucks too.

[Raycpa]

No such thing as a 99.9% risk.

[Jumper]

Yes and “know”. If your cash was in bonds when the market crashes, you convert them to the stock which now costs less. Most market crashes will reward this type buying.

[BRL]

Rubbish, If anyone believed that 99.9% number they would load up on puts which expire at the end of the year

[blueyon]

“

I’m already out of the market and into cash. Wish I could be in gold / silver but my 401K has limited options.”

Question of the day is where is a safe place for cash? Banks/S&L/Credit Union not feeling to good about them either

[Raycpa]

I can hold it for you.

[Sarajevo]

It sure does.
MarketWatch used to be one of the premier sites for information on stocks and the business world. The also had a large following because we could blog with like-minded investors. Sometime in 2010, they went off a cliff and started posting sensationalist headlines and very poorly researched and written articles. When a lot of us complained about the new status quo, we were subsequently banned. Many migrated over to Seeking Alpha.

[grobdriver]

Which is why Ellis: “Don’t own bonds” caught my eye.

[12th_Monkey]

both gold and silver are “on sale”. I wish I would have dumped my few gold dollars when it was at $1800

heard a report that said copper was down and that copper was used as an indicator on the health of the world economy.

So......who knows. But a correction is due.

[SVTCobra03]

You need to do your homework. The financial conditions today are much worse than at any time in the past 20 years. It is not “silliness.” Wake up and smell the coffee.