The 14 (Senate Races)

Hugh Hewitt.com ^ | March 14,2014 | Hugh Hewitt

[Hojczyk]

Here are the 14 Senate races for seats presently held by Democrats but for which Republicans are either favored to win or serious contenders:

1. West Virginia: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito v. no one. Jay Rockefeller quit after Capito got into the race. She will win, going away.

2. South Dakota: Former Governor Mike Rounds in South Dakota v. no one in South Dakota

This is a mortal lock for the popular Rounds.

3. Arkansas: Rep. Tom Cotton v. the hapless legacy senator Mark Pryor in Ark Pryor won his seat because his dad held it for years. Now the combat veteran of Afghanistan and Iraq Tom Cotton has a lead and is building it day by day, as shrinking Pryor struggles to erase all his positive endorsements of Obamacare. Most recently he was for repealing the cuts to career military COLAs after he was for them.

4. North Carolina: A businessman and former Speaker of the North Carolina House Thom Tillis is already ahead of another Obamacare booster, Denocratic incumbent Kay Hagan.

5. Michigan: Former Lt. Governor Terri Lynne Land is contesting an open seat left so by ancient Carl Levin, who has designated a no name with a propensity to disappear even more from voters’ minds. Land is running on the same ticket with popular GOP governor Rick Snyder, and has established an early lead.

6. Virginia: Ed Gillespie is running against a popular former governor-turned-senator Mark Warner, in a purple state, but Warner is tightly tied to both Obamacare and the new governor Terry McAullife, and Gillespie is a pro’s pro with terrific fundraising ability and genuine and deep roots in the Commonwealth.

[Hojczyk]

7. Alaska: Either Mead Tradwell or Dan Sullivan will beat Mark Begich, who only won the seat six years ago because a corrupt Department of Justice prosecution of Ted Stevens hounded the late Stevens from office. Begich provided the crucial 60th vote for Obamacare, and Alaskans won’t forget.

8. Montana: Rep. Steve Daines must unseat the recently appointed John Walsh, who was gifted his seat when clueless Max (“Obamacare is a train wreck”) Baucus was exiled to China in an obvious attempt to hang on to the seat.

9. Colorado: Rep. Gardner is young, charismatic and an experienced veteran of Rocky Mountain State politics who spent years on the U.S. Senate staff of Wayne Allard, a stint in the Colorado legislature, and checked both big boxes –as a CSU undergrad and CU law grad. Mark Udall is Narack Obama in a badly fitting cowboy hat.

10. Louisiana: Rep. Bill Cassidy is in a dead heat with long-time hanger on Mary Landrieu, and will have to go through the “jungle primary” before facing Landrieu head-on a few weeks later. If, as expected, the Republicans already control the incoming majority, he will win in a romp. If the Senate hangs in the balance, more money will flow into the Lousiana race than has ever been seen there before.

11. Minnesota: Mike McFadden is a self-funding successful businessman who has an uphill but doable battle with comedian Al Franken, who along with Bernie Sanders and Barbara Boxer, define the left edge of the United States Senate. If Gopher State voters get tired of being the butto jokes because of Franken, McFadden can win here.

12. Iowa: This is an open seat, but with popular Republican governor Terry Branstad running for an easy re-election, if the GOP nominates the right candidate from among many contenders, he or she could win in November against an off-the-shelf-left-wing Democrat, blah blah blah Bruce Braley.

13. Oregon: Dr. Monica Wehby is a pediatric neurosugeon –exactly the sort of person Obamacrae booster incumbent Jeff Merkely didn’t want to face but will in November.

14. New Hampshire: Former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown has been a second-home resident of the Granite State for decades and has moved north and taken the plunge into the race against Jeanne Shaheen –a strong partisan of Obamacare.

[12th_Monkey]

I hope it’s a bloodbath.

But once in, they best stop wimping around and do something. Lets not forget the majority will be slim, so the senate will still be a choke point.

[ClearCase_guy]

Scott Brown will wimp. He is very Liberal.

[taildragger]

I am so skeptical. This is the Same Hugh Hewitt that had his list and links of who to donate too in 12'. I did, to give Romney a super-majority in the Senate listening to Hugh and Mick Dorris ( I did that on purpose ). Lotta good that did, we were out organized by the organized, and they totally misread the electorate. Will the 4 million from our side who stated home last time stay home still? I have no way of knowing.

We do not have a counter-valence to this...

http://neworganizing.com/

They are 10 years ahead of us.

However, their is something going on with our base via the FLA race that is bigger than anyone sees IMHO, go here:http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3133053/posts?page=16#16

[napscoordinator]

We had the Senate during Bush years and I don’t remember it being much different. We still have gay marriage running ramped, abortion on demand, high taxes, large debt. I am glad to have a Republican majority in the Senate but I don’t see anything changing except that Democrats will filibuster everything.

[12th_Monkey]

Yep, exactly. Without 60, you got nothing.

[TexasFreeper2009]

You can be 100% certain that even if we won EVERY Senate seat that up this cycle:

1. They wont impeach Obama
2. They will rubber stamp ANY nominee to the Supreme court that he chooses.
3. That they will not attempt to reign in Obama’s executive power grab
4. That they will not attempt to reign in the Judiciary and out of control judges writing laws from the bench.
5. That nothing will be done to stop the spread of gay marriage.
6. That they will move forward with “comprehensive” immergration reform (ie. amnesty)

Sure, they will put on a show to make it look like they want to things if only Obama wasn’t stopping them, but it will all be for show.

[Soul of the South]

“But once in, they best stop wimping around and do something. Lets not forget the majority will be slim, so the senate will still be a choke point.”

If McConnell goes down to defeat in Kentucky and the Republicans still take the Senate, I wonder if John McCain will become majority leader.

[DownInFlames]

With zero giving away the internet, the Dems are toast.

[12th_Monkey]

I 100% agree. They’ll want to place nice-nice with the minority to show bipartisanship in an attempt to get “good press”

I know if I was sent their by the people, I’d be the biggest partisan @$$hole the Dems ever saw.

[InterceptPoint]

I am tracking the projections from Sabato, Rothenberg, ElectionProjection and The Cook Report. Using their data I have established a Flip Index of sorts that ranks the most vulnerable incumbents of both parties at the top and the safest at the bottom.

These ratings are about 2 weeks old so we should see some updates in the next couple of weeks. Colorado is likely to move up the list when we see those updates.

Based on the projections of those 4 "Experts" here are my 12 most vulnerable Dems and 2 vulnerable Republicans with the most vulnerable at the top:

Near certain GOP takover
South Dakota
West Virginia
Montana

Likely GOP Takeover
Arkansas

Toss-Up but Dems slightly favored
North Carolina
Louisiana
Mississippi

Dems and GOP likely to hold
Alaska
Kentucky (GOP)
Iowa

Dems and GOP highly likely to hold
Colorado
Georgia (GOP)
New Hampshire
Virginia

[12th_Monkey]

Lord, thats a HORRIBLE thought. But entirely possible

[vette6387]

“Scott Brown will wimp. He is very Liberal.”

But if he assures a Repubican majority and the “death” of Dingy Harry, he’s worth doing.

[vette6387]

Toss-Up but Dems slightly favored
Mississippi”

So you think if Cochran wins the primary he lopes to a RAT? Not from what I see.

[Labyrinthos]

You can be 100% certain that even if we won EVERY Senate seat that up this cycle: 1. They wont impeach Obama

You are absolutely correct, but not for the reasons you think. (Here's a hint: U.S. Const. Art II, §2.5)

[painter]

IF the Repubs have a 59 to 41 advantage they should be able to do what they want.

[Soul of the South]

“Lord, thats a HORRIBLE thought. But entirely possible”

We do know McCain is an egomaniac nearing the end of his effective lifespan. Having failed in his run for President, what better way to end his career in glory than to be leader of 1/2 of Congress and one of the most powerful politicians in the country. From that post he can ensure he’ll be on the news programs every day.

[12th_Monkey]

Once can hope

[TomGuy]

We had the Senate during Bush years and I don’t remember it being much different.

Frist and Lott left much to be desired. Open-check-book George wasn't much better. He was the one who started the bail-outs, because he saw the coming disasterous economy. Even so, he still pushed and failed to get amnesty for illegals.