Posted on 02/21/2014 11:45:39 AM PST by Din Maker
Bad news for John Cornyn: Early voting down in Texas. Low turnout always benefits the "crawl over glass" Conservatives and die-hards. The first day of voting in Harris County (Houston) Texas was 15,000; and that includes the all mail in ballots that had been received. Now, this total includes those who voted in the Democrat Primary as well as the GOP Primary. You can figure only 50% of the votes were GOP (This is Houston after all.) That's worse news for Cornyn. Only 7,000 GOP in person, and mail, votes in Harris County the first day???? Wow!
On the two opposite sides of the State (East and West) turnout was lower than 2010. Orange County on the extreme East side of Texas had 999 GOP Primary Voters the first TWO days of Early voting. And in the very populated Lubbock County, to the West, early voting numbers the first day was 899 (Dem and GOP TOTAL). Texas always has low voter turnout (48th in the nation.) But, this year it seems it is going to be extremely low if this trend continues. And not helping matters, they are predicting more freezing temps for parts of Texas (even in the southeast portion of the State) for next week; the last days of Early Voting which ends Feb. 28th.
This is good news for our team. Tea Partiers and die-hard Conservatives will get to the polls no matter what. And, in Texas' Primary in 2012, only 16.4 of the voters turned out for the RUN-OFF Election; in which Ted Cruz defeated Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst by 8 percentage points.
I like the way this is looking for our team
I was surprised by the Vega numbers. For the numbers I’m seeing, it’s close between Cornyn and Stockman and Vega close behind. But Tea Party people don’t talk to pollsters to it’s hard to get a hold on what they’re going to do and they’re the ones most likely to turn out and they’re so much support for Stovall. I voted for Stovall as well as other I know, but he’s not really getting picked up in polls. So it will be interesting to see what happens with him.
Yes, this is a surprise about Vega’s fine numbers coming in rather under the radar as you say, for sure.
People forget, Mexican-American’s in TEXAS can be quite devout very earnest, and committed conservatives, stubborn even, and this bodes well at a time of pressure by Democrats, to use them as tools, lure them into socialism, using their families and various social/economic concerns, guilt, etc.
They are not all LA RAZA types, in TEXAS. Vega sounds like one we don’t have to fear politically, should she move to the top.
Thanks for the useful information. Rita
I believe as you guys that the polling is in selective districts, making polling outcomes all over the place, possibly, but I also believe Cornyn has at minimum a race on his hands!
Gee, the run off could be panic nasty coming from Cornyn’s side, if he even makes a run off! Do you suppose......no,.... too much to hope for, huh?
However, we tend to forget that our Cruz benefited greatly from a quite extended primary cycle that year. How many weeks, or days did that snafu last election cause, and to our great benefit? We are on regular cycle this time, so everything is hurry-up. Thx, Rita
Looks like more good news ;) Thanks for posting.
I believe as you guys that the polling is in selective districts, making polling outcomes all over the place, possibly, but I also believe Cornyn has at minimum a race on his hands!
Gee, the run off could be panic nasty coming from Cornyn’s side, if he even makes a run off! Do you suppose......no,.... too much to hope for, huh?
However, we tend to forget that our Cruz benefited greatly from a quite extended primary cycle that year. How many weeks, or days did that snafu last election cause, and to our great benefit? We are on regular cycle this time, so everything is hurry-up. Thx, Rita
I’m starting to see some initial George P Bush and David Watts survey numbers for Low Info Voters. 67% Bush, 33% Watts. Large margin of error.
Well put.
Cruz benefited the most from Tom Leppert who took 13% of the vote. I don’t think there’s a “Tom Leppert” in this race right now. I’m starting to see some likely voter poll numbers and they’re strong for Cornyn. Ugh.
Yes, I expect this race not to be easy against Cornyn.
Countering Cornyn ads with the facts, and of the dangerous situation the RINO crowd has put the country in requires money and some time.
Cruz, on the other hand, was extremly intellegent and gifted challenger. That caliber of challenger is really very rare. And, unfortunately, Cornyn can be convincing in election season. Thx, jim— Rita
With somewhat better numbers on registered votes not adjusted for turnout. Tea party undersampled for sure. Here’s what I’ve seen.
Cornyn 64%
Stockman 23%
Stovall 6%
Cope 3%
Vega 3%
Other 1%
Also
George P 65%
Watts 35%
Yikes, on all counts. Turn out means everything.
YW. And thanks for your comments. Spot on!
I have a friend that will not vote until election day and feels the long early voting pre vote is a really bad idea.
I early voted yesterday and I voted for Stockman.
The numbers I saw earlier in the weekend were not far off from this other polls which shows Cornyn at 62% vs. 63% in the poll I saw. Ugh. At least things don’t look good for Dewhurst. He’ll lose in the runoff.
U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, facing a field of seven other Republican primary candidates in his bid for re-election, won the support of 62 percent of the likely Republican primary voters, followed by U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman, R-Friendswood, who got 16 percent. Support for the rest was in single digits: Linda Vega, 7 percent; Dwayne Stovall and Ken Cope, 4 percent each; Reid Reasor and Chris Mapp, 3 percent each; and Curt Cleaver, 1 percent.
http://www.texastribune.org/2014/02/24/uttt-poll-abbott-holds-11-point-lead-over-davis/
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