Posted on 02/18/2014 7:39:38 AM PST by Nachum
t turns out that the Department of Homeland Security isn’t buying that much ammunition per officer after all… and certainly a lot less per man than most avid shooters go through in a year.
Of course, I won’t ask you to take my word for it (the mind control rays could have gotten me, too), so I’ll turn it over to the National Shooting Sports Foundation, which provides a link to the Government Accountability Office report for the debunking (PDF) (here’s the direct GAO
The Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) annual ammunition purchases have declined since fiscal year 2009 and are comparable in number to the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) ammunition purchases. In fiscal year 2013, DHS purchased 84 million rounds of ammunition, which is less than DHS’s ammunition purchases over the past 5 fiscal years, as shown in the figure below. DHS component officials said the decline in ammunition purchases in fiscal year 2013 was primarily a result of budget constraints, which meant reducing the number of training classes, and drawing on their ammunition inventories. From fiscal years 2008 through 2013, DHS purchased an average of 109 million rounds of ammunition for training, qualification, and operational needs, according to DHS data. DHS’s ammunition purchases over the 6-year period equates to an average of 1,200 rounds purchased per firearm-carrying agent or officer per year. Over the past 3 fiscal years (2011-2013), DHS purchased an average of 1,000 rounds per firearm-carrying agent or officer and selected DOJ components purchased 1,300 rounds per firearm-carrying agent or officer.
DHS ammunition purchases are driven primarily by firearm training and qualification requirements. Most DHS firearm-carrying personnel are required to qualify four times per year, though requirements vary by component, as do the number of rounds of ammunition typically used for training and qualification.
(Excerpt) Read more at bearingarms.com ...
Interesting. Thanks for the thoughts.
Specifically, about over-hyped concern driving ammo shortages, is there any way this might reverse? What about simple step ups in manufacturing? There must be a certain point that can be reached where supply will catch up to demand.
Unless the brass/copper shortages XRds mentions are irreversible.
Respectfully, there is a problem with that line of thought. If the shortage is simply due to lack of materials in a free market, it should have been rectified by this time. If I were in the business of making a product that was selling like hotcakes, I would be making that product, at a higher price. 22 longs are not easily available in large quantities at ANY price. We are being denied our constitutional right to arm ourselves..
Except you can’t just “ramp up” production if your lines are already pretty full. You’d have to build a new line. But if you know that the shortage is hyped, and that the actual long-term demand is steady, building additional capacity won’t be a good decision, by the time you are ready you’ll spend 3 months making up the backlog, and then your new line is useless.
So the fact that the shortage still exists probably argues FOR the shortage being artificial, in that the manufacturers do not seem to believe the shortage is a long-term increase in purchasing.
I was in Cabelas in Louisville a couple of months ago. Man in the ammo dept told me he got 100,000 rounds of 22LR in and sold all of them in a half a Saturday. No purchasing agents there from DHS.
Until the Great Ammo Shortage I did 80% of my range practice with the 22. Primarily for economics because the marksmanship techniques are the same regardless of caliber. Right now, because of availability and cost, 80% has been the AK. Now that AR is down to almost normal levels (online anyway) it’s finally going to get some range time.
I had a pretty good inventory of 22LR before the shortage & what I purchased since has been only at the right price, rare but it has happened. But I’m sitting on them until a (relatively) normal market in 22LR returns. Only shooting what can be replaced at decent price and only buying what I shoot. IOW, not using much.
Point is, even though I’m in good shape, if Walmart had bricks tomorrow at $30 or less, I’d buy 4 of them and then spend some real time at the range, use them all. I’m guessing there are a lot like me. From here on in, my standard *minimum* inventory is greater than it was 2 years ago when I could stroll in Wally World and get CCI mini mags for $7.95 a hundred.
As matter of fact, I just got one of those cans to see what they are about. Upon opening I found that the rounds inside are clean, and the bullets are well crimped in cases. I fired one from a Ruger 22/45 MkIII; it worked, and it cycled the bolt properly. Maybe there will be FTFs later, but judging by this single round it ought to be perfectly usable for target practice.
I imagine the capital investment in expanding production facilities is pretty steep. It's also a long term investment, not for a couple of years of what may be temporarily greater demand.
I am also assuming that the mfg are paying more for components, but still are realizing (somewhat) greater profits also. A prudent approach would be looked at as taking the higher profits for the sort term and waiting a year or two to see which way the market is going. Investing $$ in new production and then seeing prices drop is to be avoided.
Yeah. Although my first assumption would be that the regulatory and liability burdens must be killers for small scale start ups. That would be interesting also.
The last time I was in my local WalMart here in Maine, there was an 8” x 10” flyer taped to the ammo cabinet, warning people that certain lots of 22LR ammo was being recalled because each round had twice the normal amount of powder in each round.
The flyer listed the lot numbers, and said the rounds could kill or injure the person using a firearm with the defective ammo. I wish I had a copy of that directive....perhaps it’s posted online somewhere.
Best price for 22LR on gunbot.net is .13, .02 less.
The integrated primer of rimfire is a headache. The cottage industry cannot handle forming brass with wet primer compound inside. You need a centrifuge to just deposit it there. Here is a good article on the subject.
Centerfire, on the other hand, is trivial to reload at home, as long as you use factory-made primers.
To amplify a little bit:
-Some pawn shops station employees at places like Academy and Walmart when bricks of .22 come in, and buy them all before John Q. Public has a chance at them. They buy these bricks for less than $30, then they turn around and sell them on gunbroker or in their shops for 3X what they paid.
-But the underlying problem seems to be that manufacturers have built a lot more .22 weapons lately, which have sold like hotcakes. This, of course, created a higher demand. The MP15-22 comes to mind.
Thank you all for great replies. Venturing into FR is certainly a learning experience.
Crosman 1077 CO2 powered 12 shot repeating rifle is a 10/22 clone and would be great for youth shooting training.
Buying it up to supply to the U.N. troops.
I never said the shortage is due to a lack of materials. I said that may be “part” of the problem.
I think the current shortages of some types of ammunition is due to multiple causes....kind of a “perfect storm” affecting the supply chain.
Some of it also may be due to manufacturers deliberately cutting back on production to increase the price and profit per unit sold. It wouldn’t be the first time in history that happened.
If they could, they would. Haven't you every wondered why there are no independent primer manufacturers in the world? Manufacturing primer mix is complex and exceptionally dangerous. Nobody has ever learned the art and science of making it without the loss of human life in the process. Industrial safety rules are almost always written in blood. Which of your family members would you be willing to sacrifice in the quest of learning what not to do when attempting to make primer mix.
Good post, written with either experience, wisdom or both, unlike most of the input on this thread.
I see. Seems like understanding this should be easier. It isn’t like we need to crack the National Archives with a FOIA! What do the end market stores say? The middlemen? The manufacturer? It has been almost 2 years since I have been able to walk into a Walmart and buy some 22 longs.....What constitutes short term?
“Which of your family members would you be willing to sacrifice in the quest of learning what not to do when attempting to make primer mix.”
I’m thinking, I’m thinking....
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