On Immigration, What Are the Republicans Thinking?

Real Clear Politics ^ | January 31, 2014 | Sean Trende

[fifedom]

The GOP has announced that it will pursue an immigration reform bill later this year. This surprised most observers. Why would the party entertain a civil war when everything seems to be going well for it?

[fifedom]

Here is what the OP author, Trende, thinks. He favors alternative #5:
1) They are worried about the Hispanic vote.
the smarter play for Republicans here seems to be to wait until 2015 to act on a bill. After all, Republican chances for taking the Senate this year are very good if the dynamic doesn’t change. So if they can effectively lay low between now and Election Day and somehow avoid angering Independents or inflaming divisions between establishment and insurgent Republicans, they would have much greater influence over the direction of the bill in the second half of Obama’s term.
2) The Chamber of Commerce wants it.
This theory is very popular, especially among Tea Party sorts. (But) The Chamber of Commerce has wanted legislation for a very, very long time. A bill passed the Senate last summer. If the GOP was going to pass that measure to appease its corporate supporters, the smart play again would have been to get it over with early on.
3) It’s a trap for Democrats
Republicans plan on discarding the pathway to citizenship in favor of a pathway to legalization. (They) are threatening to refuse to allow any House bill to go to conference, forcing the Senate to either take it or leave it. What if the Democrats opt to “take it”? The (RAT) base knows that fights over citizenship will follow, and many believe that the GOP will eventually cave on that as well. It’s a recipe for disaster.
4) This is a PR push.
The idea would be that they would pass something with some sort of “poison pill” in it that Democrats wouldn’t swallow. But you still encounter the problem that Democrats might decide there’s no such thing as a poison pill here, within reason, and figure that they can fix any further issues with the immigration system further down the line, and call Republicans’ bluff by passing whatever comes out of the House.
5) Republicans (GOPe) are afraid of winning.
The GOPe figure the House is safe and they would rather lose control of the Senate than let in some more Mike Lee's and Ted Cruz's.

[musicman]

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[Jim Robinson]

There is no cure for stupid, except voting it OUT!

[R0CK3T]

Here’s what they are thinking...

“If we make a bunch of people who broke the law become citizens, then all hispanics will LIKE us”!!!

Good luck with that.

[wny]

They’re not called the stupid party for no reason.

[mulligan]

Republicans don’t think, they just cave.

[tennmountainman]

The GOP will be dead if they pass amnesty. And a true Tea Party will
emerge from it’s ashes.

[citizen]

#4 is what I read. I don’t like it either but they have to look like they tried to do something.

[Carry_Okie]

They want to be rid of the need to make concessions to conservatives they view as “embarrassing” as defined by the media, knowing that together with moderates afraid of Democrats, enough of us will vote for them to keep them in power with which to hand out favors to their financial backers.

[Doogle]

they believe evrything the libtard mmedia tells them.....FORGET ABOUT THE 70% OF THE AMERICAN CITIZEN THAT WANTS STRONG BORDER SECURITY AND NO AMNESTY....their gullible morons

[TwelveOfTwenty]

On Immigration, What Are the Republicans Thinking?

They are thinking that "you", whether you take that to mean Christian Conservative or non-Hispanic white, did not produce enough future voters to make Conservative candidates relevant. And unless something changes drastically and soon, they're right.

[onyx]

Praise God you’re here!

[CitizenUSA]

How about a variation of #5? Maybe the Republicans fear they’ll win, and then the minority of Republican amnesty supporters won’t be able to join with Democrats to pass amnesty. Maybe they see this as a last chance, in their political careers, to do an amnesty cram down on the American people.

[drypowder]

Some might say the US congress, the president and the Wall Street banksters all work for the NWO elites and are all working toward the creation of a North American Union (NAU. Hence, the dilution of the American middle class with folks who think they still own the land we call the US is one of the necessary components if the NWO’s goal of a NAU is to be completed. Remember GH Bush's words when he spoke of the NWO, they will succeed! Sad to say and no thanks to the Repubican party, the NWO elites clearly have this country by the nadds.

[allendale]

Paul Ryan said the legislation is in trouble. It would be remarkable for the House to pass a bill that would be reconciled in conference with the Senate. Senator Menendez, the Democratic fornicator from New Jersey has said that the conference will be hijacked by pro amnesty people and through parliamentary maneuvers will not need a second vote in the House. However it would seem that there will be no chance for any immigration bill passing in the next Congress if as expected more rock solid conservatives are elected.

[musicman]

(I’m tryin’!!)

[Verginius Rufus]

I don't think the Democrats actually care about passing the bill. They just want to have immigration as an issue to get their base riled up at the Republicans over.

Sure, amnesty would mean more legal Democratic voters, but the Democrats don't care if a vote is cast legally as long as it cast for a Democrat.

[Caipirabob]

I go with option #5 which supports the position that the GOPe truly wants conservatives to leave and form 3rd party giving them a strong #2 position to fight for scraps at the table of their socialist overlords.

[CitizenUSA]

“Republicans don’t think, they just cave.”

I think it’s a mistake to underestimate the GOPe. They DO think, and that is why they cave. They aren’t irrational. I’m sure they know they aren’t really going to win over Hispanics, so there has to be some other logical reason. It’s also possible they believe what they say. Some of them clearly seem convinced an amnesty is going to help the economy. We can disagree on that, but they definitely have known or unknown reasons for doing what they do.

BTW, I bet they also know an amnesty might very well cost some of them their jobs, but I also bet they aren’t worried about that. Have you ever heard of a politician starving after leaving office? No. They’ll be taken care of regardless.

I think they know the Tea Party cavalry is coming, so they want to act now while they can.

[Da Coyote]

Bonehead bends over so much that Bawney still sends him Valentine cards.

The GOP is dead, dead, dead.

Save your money for the upcoming CW-II.