Posted on 10/21/2013 3:09:07 PM PDT by Mikey_1962
1qDon’t put too much stock in Barone. He predicted a Romney win.
I will say though, he is a whiz kid, and I think his reasoning here is sound.
The key sentence.
“Obama carried only 209 congressional districts, while Mitt Romney carried 226. While capturing all 17 Obama House Republican seats would give Democrats a 218-217 majority, as a practical matter (and because Republicans have a good shot at winning some current Democratic seats) Democrats are going to have to capture at least some Romney seats”
So, in order to win the House, here is what Pelosi would have to do.
A) Not lose a single seat, even ones in Republican districts
B) Get every single one of the Obama/Republican seats, some of which contain extremely entrenched Republicans who are popular in their district. Like scumbag Peter King.
OR
C) Gain a number of seats in Romney districts, which just isn’t likely. If they didn’t vote for Obama at the height of his popularity at election time, are they really going to support his party when he sits at 39% approval?
and not forgetting D) They have to do this all in second midterm, with an unpopular president, on the back of a disaster healthcare law, with no precedent in recent history.
Obama carried only 209 congressional districts, while Mitt Romney carried 226. While capturing all 17 Obama House Republican seats would give Democrats a 218-217 majority, as a practical matter (and because Republicans have a good shot at winning some current Democratic seats) Democrats are going to have to capture at least some Romney seats... America's current demography -- with Democratic voters clustered in central cities, certain suburbs and university towns, and Republican voters spread more evenly around the country -- the House is an uphill climb for the Democrats.
BTTT!
Yeah, Barone is good.
I think a lot of us were shocked last year that Obama won like he did. But despite that the GOP kept the House.
The best thing the GOP can do is sit back and shut up. Let Barry spend the next few months trying to justify Obamacare.
The only bad call I have ever seen was the 2012 Presidential election.
The 2012 Presidential election was an anomaly.
With Obamacare you hope there would be enough ticked off voters to lose the Senate as well to non-Democrats.
I don’t like him because of his oh so confident predictions of a Romney win in 2012....I feel the same about Dick Morris...highly skeptical of their prognosticating...can you blame me?
And how would you feel if someone called your opinion “nonsense”?
Not very nice, is it?
Not very nice, is it?
Your first statement was that he had "no" credibility. That is nonsense. He has quite a bit -- though he's certainly not infallible.
Sorry to make you feel bad, but imagine how Barone felt reading your comment.
Heh.
bttt
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