UNless the elite political class is pulled down...
Posted on 10/21/2013 3:09:07 PM PDT by Mikey_1962
America's current demography -- with Democratic voters clustered in central cities, certain... Nate Cohn has a good piece in the New Republic explaining to its mostly liberal readers why Democrats don't have a good chance to regain a majority in the House in 2014, despite the supposedly massive unpopularity of House Republicans. The bottom line: There aren't many target seats (only 17 House Republicans represent districts that voted for Barack Obama in 2012) and Democrats don't seem to be running strong candidates in many of them. Another statistic could be cited: Obama carried only 209 congressional districts, while Mitt Romney carried 226. While capturing all 17 Obama House Republican seats would give Democrats a 218-217 majority, as a practical matter (and because Republicans have a good shot at winning some current Democratic seats) Democrats are going to have to capture at least some Romney seats. If Obama's job approval continues to be under its November 2012 levels, as it is now, and if voters continue to vote straight tickets, as they have done increasingly in the past 20 years, that's going to be difficult.
Of course there is still a chance Democrats could win back the majority. Circumstances could change. But America's current demography — with Democratic voters clustered in central cities, certain suburbs and university towns, and Republican voters spread more evenly around the country — the House is an uphill climb for the Democrats. In the last 20 years they've won House majorities only when there is an unpopular Republican president. Whatever the results of the government shutdown battle, that won't be the case in 2014.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
No, but their allies might.
And what about the Senate - any true conservatives you can unseat some of the Dems and their cronies in 2014? Considering what true conservatives were able to do despite being a minority faction in the House, it is certainly exciting to think what exactly they could do with a House AND Senate majority. The more seats they can, the more leverage they will have that the MSM cannot afford to ignore.
At this rate, there may be nothing left.
I wish Dems could find someone sensible to take out King and Grimm.
At this rate, there may be nothing left.
Yeah our biggest danger is RINOs deliberately splitting votes.
The district next to mine has solid tea partier Kerry Bentivolio holding the seat. He faces a challenge from radical marxist Jocelyn Benson, and a “republican” backed by moderate Dick Devoss.
Um, they already have the House.
If they get the illegals and their family members amnestied the demwits will take everything.
Won’t even read it, sorry....
Barone has NO credibility.
A much shorter article could’ve been:
“Obamacare”
The only bad call I have ever seen was the 2012 Presidential election.
That was the wish being father to the thought.
He called the House going to the Republicans in 2010.
DeathCare will be sticking to every RAT like super glue!!!
Barrys low 40 approval rating will make sure of that
Nonsense.
You don't like him because he doesn't always toe the conservative line. His number-crunching is quite good.
I agree. He's certainly not a doctrinaire conservative, but we ignore his insights at our peril. IMHO.
Cook and Barone are two of the best.
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