LIVE THREAD ~ NEW JERSEY SPECIAL ELECTION FOR US SENATE

[bryan999]

Good morning Free Republic and good morning to the GREAT STATE of NEW JERSEY!

Get up and go to you polling place!! VOTE FOR STEVE LONEGAN TODAY!!

And with that -- I am off to do my civic duty and to make America proud!!

(hope this isn't a repeat thread!)

[dead]

Yes, Christie's thinking was that a strong voter turnout for Booker on regular election day would have bolstered Buono's numbers; not enough for Christie to lose but enough to keep his margin of victory in single digits.

The Christie people believe that a double digit victory in a blue state will sell GOP primary voters on "his ability to win moderates across the aisle."

They may be right too, since the majority of GOP primary voters have repeatedly gone Ahab in search of the white "ability to win moderates" whale.

So Christie refused to appoint a Republican to serve out Lautencorpse's term (which he could have done, but he would have been scolded by the likes of the NY Times editorial board) and ran from a proxy fight with fembo Booker.

[Viennacon]

I hope you said, “no, Lonegan”

[Political Junkie Too]

New Jersey is 69% white. How will "tribe" play out?

-PJ

[JLAGRAYFOX]

I am out-of-state, but have relatives in NJ. They are like me...ex-Texans!!! They hate Obama, they hate the Democrat Party, so they are solidly in the Steve Lonegan camp. I have been working hard on the blogs drumming up support for Steve Lonegan wherever I can!!! I agree with you.....New Jersey is the bluest of states and it is very hard to get a conservative even considered, let alone elected.

Steve Lonegan has done an outstanding job campaigning throughout the entire state.....but he probably will come up short. He has not had much help from the Republican establishment, including Governor Christie. With the big guns from the Conservative wing of the Pubbies coming to town, this race, will, however, be a much closer race then anyone ever believed!!!

Of course, if Mr. Lonegan pulls it out with a victory....the entire world will be shocked and Obama’s presidency will be done in, overnight!!! If only New Jersey voters knew how important this election is to them, their families and their country!!! But...other battles are rising!!! Actually...if you take the emotion out of things......Obama really got just a few weeks of relief until the attack begins again!!! Not a good deal for the Democrat low life!!!

I also agree with you that is, indeed, a protracted conflict that will last a long time. We primary every RINO that stood by Reid and Obama and get rid of them. They are no more more then “whore” traitors!!! Ted Cruz & Mike Lee din not lose this battle. This battle was lost at the outset because the RINOs have no guts to fight for what they say they believe in!!! Stay strong, cool, focused. This war is ours to win...if we just stand together. POTUS Obama is a closet leader, weak and unable to lead in front of his battle troops!!! We got us a few good ones. Let’s cover their backs!!!

And.....to Mr. & Mrs. Steve Lonegan, regardless of the results tonight, sir....you are ten times the American that Cory Booker will ever be!!! I salute you sir, your strong wife and your fine family. I know the Italians and Irish in New Jersey have your back!!! We love ya!!!

[GeronL]

Why would you expect the GOP establishment and RINO’s like Christie to support a conservative in their own party??

Only conservatives are stupid and gullible enough to vote for people who hate them.

[taildragger]

Why didn’t Christie nominate Lonegan for the Seat in the first place, instead of putting some lame duck in there that said beforehand he wasn’t going to run for the seat. So the guy gave a little token endorsement....Talk is cheap.

I think you need to ask yourself why did Obama kiss Christie's petard before the election? My guess? He knew Lautengerg was ready for a pine box and well as Menedez's troubles and nothing happened to Menedez, and he passed like you noted on nominating a real candidate like Steve.

What was the Blimp promised? VP on the Dem ticket in 16'? More money for Jersey? Or does Obama have something on him?

Equally as bad is that gelding McConnell didn't see these two seats being a win in his column and Mitch and what is left of a Senatorial Election Committee did Ohgats...

[nathanbedford]

If 31% are nonwhite and the Democrats harvest 85 to 95% of 31% that could be as much as 27% of the vote right there. That leaves them needing to get only 24% more of the electorate to win. Republicans have to get almost twice as much out of the 69% to win.

If the Republicans pick up 5 to 15% of the nonwhite vote they have to get between 36% and 46% to get to 51%. That means Republicans have to get between 52% and 66% of the white vote.

That is as many as two out of three, a daunting prospect in Wyoming much less in rat infested New Jersey.

Of course this breakdown does not account for the Hispanic vote which is generally counted as part of the nonwhite vote and it explains why that tribe, which is growing rapidly in New Jersey, plays such an important part modern politics. Nor does this account for turnout which might be very high among aggrieved white property taxpaying voters in the burbs.

On the other hand, it does not account for Jews which amount to a sizable proportion of the property paying whites in the burbs in Western Essex, Passaic, Bergen County etc. and who traditionally vote Democrat in the 80% range.

Whatever way you slice it, it's tribal analysis.

[mellow velo]

Your well-thought-out analysis neglected to take into account the multiple voters & the dead, not to mention one or a bunch of stray dogs & cats. These demographics fall strongly (100% or higher) in the Democrat column!

[BigEdLB]

[Haiku Guy]

My pet theory is that the Republican’s rush to cave on the CR and Debt Ceiling deal indicates that Steve Lonegan is going to win this thing. Here is my thinking:

After a Booker win, the Republicans Establishment could cave at their leisure. They could even point to the election of Booker as evidence to the base that the fight is futile. So it would be better to wait until after tonight if they thought Booker was going to win.

However, after a Lonegan win, the base would no longer take “no” for an answer. They would be energized to insist that the Establishment Republicans stick to their guns and get a better deal. So they had to cut a deal today if they thought Lonegan was going to win.

Because, remember, the Establishment Republicans wanted to lose this fight from the git-go. Everything they have done is just posturing to humor their base. At the end of the day, they know that they are our betters, and they know what is best.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3079808/posts

[Sarah Barracuda]

“Voting irregularities” already being reported in GOP areas..yeah we all know what that means..let the voter fraud commence

[dadfly]

making calls for lonegan as we speak.

not many pickups but it’s fun.

[AMDG&BVMH]

I thought they should wait until the outcome of this vote — to vote. Updates please about the race, exit polling, etc. Many thanks.

[JPG]

Some districts reporting 100% turnout--all voting for Booker.

[PoloSec]

Well...that’s a discouraging update.

[Haiku Guy]

I contacted everybody in my address book this morning, and most of them had already voted for Lonegan. It is a kind of skewed sample, however.

[Chode]

and they didn't do this next month on ELECTION DAY because???

[AMDG&BVMH]

Thanks! And Bump.

[Salvey]

We live in a conservative bastion in NJ; when I voted this morning, I was number 151 in my district and one of the attendants said that voting was brisk. Fingers crossed.