Posted on 09/23/2013 1:46:30 PM PDT by SMGFan
The Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call ratings for House, Senate and Governor are categorized to reflect the degree to which one party or the other is projected to win. Ratings don’t reflect how close a contest is expected to be, but rather the degree of certainty that one political party will win the seat.
Tossup
District
Arizona 2 Ron Barber (D)
Colorado 6 Mike Coffman (R)
North Carolina 7 Mike McIntryre (D)
Utah 4 Jim Matheson (D) R
(Excerpt) Read more at media.cq.com ...
how about incumbents getting primaried out?
Lemme see now:
A.) Shut down the non-essential, spendaholic Federal Government until the sorry spendaholic Federal politicians give up; or
B.) Shut down and destroy America by approving the funding of America’s death knell Obamacare; or
C.) Be very, very fearful of what the Democrat’s Liberal Agenda Media MIGHT say and write about old-style Republicans who have always before caved in to Democrats?
Think, think, think - - - - .
2014 is going to be so much fun for the New Republican Party!
well I guess that depends on who files to challenge in the primaries. No doubt if an incumbent gets primaried out the seat will got to toss up .. isn’t that what MSM did in 2010?
http://media.cq.com/pub/2013/race-ratings-rc/?pos=lpolmr
The project 43 safe Republican seats, plus 5 tilts and leans Republican, picking up 3 open seats. All those states went for Romney in 2012.
That means they have to defeat 3 incumbent Democrats to take control of the Senate. 48 Democrats are considered "safe, favored, or lean".
There are two tossups (Arkansas and Louisiana) and two "tilts Democratic" (Alaska and North Carolina). All went to Romney in 2012, some by significant margins.
Rothenberg Report is usually not too good. Leans liberal Dempocrat and most always is wrong. However not much rooom for swing. I am predicting Pubbies will pick up 12-20 seats....which will give them a masssive control of the House. Senate....no predictions.....too many RINOs that are traitors!!!
“Shut down the non-essential, spendaholic Federal Government “
The president gets to spend the military budget on whatever he wants. Clinton spent all of the spares money on social projects. He had soldiers in full combat gear diapering AIDS babies in Africa. He literally ran us out of bullets and bombs. Obama is talking about retiring entire fleets of aircraft. Whole types, like the A-10, the B1, whole series of F-15’s.
When the guy deciding what is essential is Obama, this probably isn’t the optimal plan.
Go Mia!
The US House decides who gets paid by approving one tiny continuing resolution to fund after another, starting with our US Military.
Mothballing Air Force One for the next 4 years would be a very good start as the roll back of Obamanation continues to pick up momentum.
I don’t think Kysten Sinema is likely to hold her seat.
This illustrates the undemocratic consequences of Democratic gerrymandering across the country which solidifies the Democrats’ hold on hundreds of congressional districts and thereby denying conservatives from electing congressmen to represent conservative policies.
“All others tilt to party holding the seat.”
Not all Gary Miller-R in California is shown as Dem leaning.
Be careful what you wish for.
Republicans have been more successful at redistricting ("gerrymandering") than Democrats; Democrats received a million + more congressional votes than Republicans, but Republicans hold a solid majority in the house. This advantage will last at lesat through 2020.
Most estimates are that if you drew the "fairest" possible districts, Democrats would control the House.
Similarly, if you apportioned senate seats by population (the rule of equal proportions), there would likely be around 18-20 "conservative" Senators (TX and FL would make a big contribution to that) - small state and rural over-representation in the Senate is a *huge* built-in conservative advantage. Even if you assigned 1 seat to each state, and apportioned the rest
California 10 seats
Texas would have 7
New York and Florida, would have 5
Illinois and Pennsylvania would have 4
Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, New Jersey, and Michigan would have 3
Eleven other states would have their current 2
Twenty-eight states, would have one 1
Bottom line is that conservatives currently have structural advantages in both the House and Senate, not the other way around.
And that anything that made apportionment fairer (in terms of equal voting power for each voter) would work to the Democrat, not conservative, advantage.
‘”Trust , but verify” :)
Hears two more analysis: http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2014-house/
Frank Gunita has decided to have a rubber match with Carol Che-Porter in NH-1.
Incumbents who lose the primary are usually in safe seats.
Rothenberg says that CA-31 tilts GOP? I find that very hard to believe, given that Romney got below 41% in the district and the main reason why Republican Gary Miller won under its new lines in 2012 was because so many Democrats ran in the jungle primary that the two Republican candidates got the two spots in the runoff.
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