Posted on 09/09/2013 12:21:53 PM PDT by con-surf-ative
I keep hearing in the media that the unemployment rate is down below 8% due to a reduction of the total number of workers participating in the labor force. It seems to me that if there are fewer people in the labor force, and the number of unemployed goes up or remains constant, the unemployment would be higher, not lower.
If there are 5,000,000 unemployed out of 50,000,000 labor force, the unemployment rate is 10%, but if the labor force is only 40,000,000, then the unemployment rate would be 12.5%. Right? Yet I continually hear on Rush and elswhere that the opposite is the case. Can someone please explain?
Simply that people are not counted.
If there are 5,000,000 unemployed out of 50,000,000 labor force, the unemployment rate is 10%, but if the labor force is only 40,000,000, then the unemployment rate would be 12.5%. Right? Yet I continually hear on Rush and elswhere that the opposite is the case. Can someone please explain?
The unemployment number is not calculated that way, that’s why it doesn’t make sense.
If you drop out of the work force: retired, disabled, or just plain give up looking, you are no longer considered "unemployed".
By that you mean that they are no longer counted as unemployed?
My understanding was the number of unemployed was based on the number of people applying for unemployment benefits. They can collect unemployment while not being considered part of the labor force? I guess nothing surprises me about government lies . . . er, statistics.
Unemployment rate only measures those who show up at the unemployment office...thats all. So...your calculations are definitely more accurate and honest
Unemployment Rate = Unemployed Workers / Total People in the Workforce.
Theoretically, if someone isn’t either employed or actively seeking employment, they aren’t in the workplace. It would, in theory, skew the unemployment rate higher if you counted retirees, for instance, as if they were in the workforce.
In reality, the government uses a lot of statistical hocus pocus and fuzzy math to decrease the total number of people in the workforce, biasing the unemployment rate down.
Basically people quit looking for a job and go on welfare or disability permanently. While the unemployment rate is going down, there are record numbers of people being added to the public doles each month. This was the Obama administration plan all along. I think there are 9 million fewer people in the workforce today compared to 2008..
Your calculation assumes that the decrease in the labor force comes out of the portion of the labor force that is employed, rather than those who do not have jobs. So, in your calculation, the number of unemployed people remains constant, while the number of employed people drops. In reality, the population of people who drop out of the labor force comes almost entirely out of the unemployed population. So, using your example, the numbers would look something like:
Original: 5,000,000 out of 50,000,000 unemployed (unemployment rate: 10%)
After decrease in labor pool: 2,500,000 out of 47,500,000 unemployed (unemployment rate: ~5.3%)
“Unemployment rate only measures those who show up at the unemployment office...thats all. So...your calculations are definitely more accurate and honest”
I’ve seen estimates that the real unemployment rate (as opposed to the politically massaged number) is somewhere between 13-2x% depending on where you are in the country.
The unemployment rate for blacks is MUCH higher than for others. Obama has been very bad for blacks who aren’t already rich cronies.
Basically, to cook the books, they are reducing both numbers instead of just one and comparing the previous measurement against the change, which is how a percentage would work.
They’re simply not counting all the people that are unemployed as “unemployed” because some of them aren’t “participating” any more. So those people are now a separate category and bammo, the “unemployment” rate is dropping (even though there are more people unemployed in relation to the number of jobs available or the population).
Simple.
When someone’s benefits run out they are no longer counted as ‘unemployed’......
That’s because you count properly.
ping
Once you UE benefits expire, you are no longer counted.
Which is why I want to ask why the GOP hasn’t done a survey and get the real information out there in the public domain. Not that the MSM would publish it.
Incorrect. Unemployment compensation does not play into the way the unemployment "rate" is calculated.
Again, incorrect.
Again, incorrect. Again.
There is a simple reason for this: your government is lying to you.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.