Posted on 07/30/2013 7:51:38 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Alaska should be a top tier pick up opportunity for Senate Republicans next year...but their top choice of a candidate is Sarah Palin. 36% of GOP primary voters in the state say they'd like Palin to be their standard bearer against Mark Begich to 26% for Mead Treadwell, 15% for Dan Sullivan, and 12% for Joe Miller. Palin leads mostly based on her strength with 'very conservative' voters where she gets 43% to 20% for Treadwell, but she also leads him 28/25 with moderates.
The problem for Republicans with a Palin candidacy is that even though she is in good standing with the party base, voters overall don't like her at all. She has a 39/58 favorability rating, including 33/64 with key independent voters. There's a lot of division about how strong her ties to the state even are anymore- only 47% of voters consider her to still be an Alaskan while 46% don't, and 37% of voters in the state think it would be more appropriate for her to run for the Senate from Arizona to 41% who say Alaska.
It all adds up to a 52/40 lead for Begich in a hypothetical match up with Palin. He leads by 21 points with independents, 56/35, and takes 20% of the Republican vote. It's a slight improvement for Palin from February when we found her trailing Begich 54/38, but she's very much in a hole.
The best Republican hope for this seat is Lieutenant Governor Mead Treadwell and the good news for the GOP is that if Palin sits it out he, and not 2010 nominee Joe Miller, is the next choice of the party base. In a three way primary Treadwell gets 33% to 25% for Sullivan and 24% for Miller. And in a head to head with Miller, Treadwell leads 53/30. Even among Republican primary voters Miller has a dreadful 26/53 favorability rating.
Treadwell still trails Begich, but only by a 44/40 margin. That's narrowed from 47/39 on our February poll. Treadwell has a +6 favorability rating at 35/29 and has room to grow with 36% of voters still not knowing enough about him to have formed an opinion. Alaskans are closely divided on Begich with 42% approving and 41% disapproving of him. Begich's biggest complication though is probably how voters in the state feel about Barack Obama- just 39% approve of the job he's doing to 57% who disapprove. Begich does lead Sullivan (46/39) and Miller (55/32) should either of them slip through the primary.
It definitely looks like the action in Alaska next year will be the Senate race. Governor Sean Parnell actually has approval numbers that could suggest some vulnerability- 44% give him good marks to 42% who disapprove. But he still has wide leads in hypothetical match ups with a quartet of potential Democratic opponents- he's up 13 on Ethan Berkowitz at 51/38, 19 on Bill Wielechowski at 52/33, 20 on Les Gara at 53/33, and 21 on Hollis French at 54/33. Parnell also looks pretty solid against a primary challenge from Bill Walker, leading him 60/22.
The Alaska House race is a similar story- Don Young isn't terribly popular with a 47/43 approval rating but he still leads potential Democratic challenger Matt Moore by 28 points at 56/28.
That does offer a possible explanation.......
That being said, her inability or unwillingness (you must pick one) to endure and overcome a bunch of hack journalists and vicious state bureaucrats from the backwater that is Alaska by at least finishing her term as governor does not bode well...
You make it seem like no big deal. What would be involved in...to use your words..."endure and overcome?"
For extra credit, explain why it does "not bode well."
It was a big deal, and her decision to quit was impressive political jujitsu.
Palin quit because she was encountering an Alaskan political system post-Presidential election which was nothing but “get Palin”.
That political system was not one which the government paid for. Palin herself, had to absorb costs.
If you’ve been here since 2011 you should probably know this.
It probably wouldn’t be a bad idea for her to stay home and keep an eye on the rest of her kids, at least until they 18.
Everybody I know voted for Ted Cruz and it had nothing to do with Sarah Palin.
We thought he would do what he is doing...not be part of the establishment. Dewhurst had establishment written all over him.
That got Cruz elected.
I pray Sarah is not sidelined into the Senate.
She will be pigeonholed there.
She is needed on a bigger battlefield.
I can’t help it if you are as ignorant of the political facts about Palin and Cruz as you were in defending and promoting your man Mitt Romney.
The fact is that Ted Cruz is adamant and clear in stating that he would not be in the Senate without Palin.
Speaking at CPAC for instance.
“I would not be in the U.S. Senate today if it were not for Governor Palin,” Cruz said.
Welcome to FR.
In your short time here you have managed to stay consistently liberal, and under the radar, congrats.
LOL! I didn't even have a Romney bumper sticker. I did vote for Romney...as I loathe Obama.
The fact is that Ted Cruz is adamant and clear in stating that he would not be in the Senate without Palin.
You think I'm not aware of that? He's nice and appreciative of her support...as we all are. But Cruz would have won without it. Dewhurst helped Cruz more than Palin. Get over it!
Do you live in TX?
I have run into your pro-Romney arguments before so I know how hard you will fight for Romney, just as hard as you will fight against Palin.
You are dedicated enough to dispute Ted Cruz himself on Palin.
“I would not be in the U.S. Senate today if it were not for Governor Palin,” Cruz said.
May 10— Sarah Palin has weighed in on the fiercely competitive Texas Senate primary race with an endorsement of Ted Cruz, the tea-party-backed candidate announced on his website Thursday.
Mr. Cruz, pulling 26 percent of likely Republican voters in the latest Public Policy Polling survey, is hoping to finish well enough in the May 29 Texas GOP primary to make it into a July 31 runoff with Mr. Dewhurst, who is comfortably in first with 38 percent.
========== Dewhurst leads Cruz in the PPP poll, 46 percent to 29 percent.
The picture is very different when it comes to former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who supports Cruz. PPP, a Democratic-leaning firm, found that 36 percent of Texas Republicans say Palin’s support would make them more likely to back a candidate, while 21 percent consider it a negative.
“In every other state, Sarah Palin’s endorsement has been a game-changer,” Cruz told Texas on the Potomac this afternoon.
FWIW, as a Texan, I have not had a voice in who the GOP candidate is because it has been determined before I have a vote. Trust me, McCain and Romney would not have been my choice..
In the recent re-districted election, I supported and helped elect Steve Stockman to congress.
In the most recent election to the senate and congress, my state and district has given you Cruz and Stockman. (Cornyn has been a disappointment...I resigned as his county chair.)
Who in DC has your state and district given us?
I don't need any lectures on Texas politics or being conservative from somebody like you ...who hasn't said where you're from!
LOL, that was perfect, a mess of desperate confusion and rambling that has nothing to do with Cruz and Palin.
“I would not be in the U.S. Senate today if it were not for Governor Palin,” Cruz said.
What do you who think you know more about Texas politics than Texans do?
You cut and paste.
IOW, you are clueless in "Whereverville."
Another irrelevant post that doesn’t counter Senator Ted Cruz.
You won't even say what state you live in.
Your opinion is irrelevant, IMO.
Cruz would beat Palin in any election held in Texas...every day.
“She increased taxes and royalties on oil production in AK to reinforce a socialistic wealth redistribution system.”
Guess you haven’t read the Alaska Constitution, have you?
Or understand the difference between the AK Constitution and the national one?
Cuz there are BIG differences and Palin knows this. You apparently do not.
In brief: AK’s natural resources are OWNED by the people. And something like 90% of AK’s general operating budget is to be derived from the development of those natural resources. According. to. the. AK. constitution.
Palin’s tax program - ACES=Alaska’s Clear and Equitable Share - accomplished two main objectives:
1. Fulfill the state constitution to get the best return for the citizens of Alaska
and
2. Ensure the free market allowed all comers to develop the natural resources - and not just the Big Three through cronyism.
Or know anything about how the Big Three oil companies were in bed with legislators and every governor before AND AFTER Palin to get those taxes lowered to SHUT OUT smaller development companies, do you?
As per your “socialistic wealth redistribution system,” I assume you’re referring to the Alaska Permanent Fund? Palin didn’t create that. She maintained it as a means of fulfilling the State Constitution, which AGAIN states that Alaska citizens OWN their natural resources and so get reimbursed for its development.
There is NOTHING remotely like that in the national constitution, nor should there be.
Palin has NEVER stated as such.
This is not difficult.
If you have a clear and unbiased head to think about it.
Because a mother staying home with her kids is really a liberal idea?
No, because you are a liberal nooby troll, if not a retread.
As a native Houstonian, who’s stepfather won elective office in 2002, as the first republican to hold that office since reconstruction, yes, I feel qualified to quote Senator Ted Cruz on what put him in office.
It is laughable that you consider yourself more of an expert on Cruz’s race, than Ted Cruz himself.
“I would not be in the U.S. Senate today if it were not for Governor Palin,” to quote a man who probably knows a little more about it than you.
It is laughable that you consider yourself more of an expert on Cruz’s race, than Ted Cruz himself.
A lot of conservatives endorsed Cruz. Only Palin supporters made a fool of themselves about it.
You don't win Palin any friends, BTW.
What you seem to fail to understand, I like Sarah! People like you don't help her.
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