Posted on 07/24/2013 1:27:04 AM PDT by grundle
On Monday, BMW announced that the U.S. base price for its all-electric i3 will be $41,350, not including any federal or state incentives. For General Motors' Chevy Volt, and possibly Tesla Motor's Model S, BMW's move spells major trouble. Here's why.
Bad news, GM
With a starting MSRP of $39,145 in 2012, the Volt was the best-selling EV, and it's not hard to see why. Really more of an electric hybrid than a straight EV, the Volt combines a 9.3-gallon fuel tank with a lithium-ion battery. This combination allows the Volt can go an estimated 38 miles on pure battery before switching to regular fuel, which extends the range to an estimated 380 miles. Because of this combination, the Volt cuts down on range anxiety, which is still a huge deterrent to getting consumers into EVs.
Now, compare the above to BMW's all-electric i3: According to BMW, the i3 has a pure-electric range of 80-100 miles, thanks to its lithium-ion battery, and has an optional range extender that lengthens that initial range by 80 miles. Plus, thanks to BMW's eDrive technology, a driver can extend the initial range up to 124 miles by putting the vehicle in one of the "EcoPro" modes.
Right away you can see the problem. Not only does BMW's i3 go farther on pure battery power, but with the purchase of the optional range extender, range anxiety goes way down. More pointedly, the base MSRP for the BMW is only $2,000 more than the Volt. I don't know about you, but if I had to decide between spending $39,000 for a Volt, or $2,000 more for a BMW, I'm going with the BMW, hands down.
Tesla, this is bad for you, too
Right now, Tesla is the crème-de-la-crème of EVs. But it's competing against all-electric EVs like Nissan Motors' Leaf, and Ford's Focus Electric. To put it simply, Tesla's Model S can drive circles around these cars. Yes, it's more expensive, but the technology, range, and precision of the Model S makes anything else seem almost silly in comparison. BMW, however, is a luxury brand with renowned German engineering, and its new i3, and the future i8 model, presents a new challenge for Tesla.
Consider this: The i3, designed from the ground up as an EV, has received praise from some of the industry's harshest EV critics. As BBC's "Top Gear" drivers put it:
At first sampling, then, this is a compelling electric car. It's not the first on the market, but BMW has put some original thinking into almost every part of its design and engineering. It drives sweetly, is distinctively designed, and has the reassuring range-extender option if you are anxious about running flat.
These are the same critics that gave Tesla's Roadster a less than glowing report -- in fact, Tesla sued the show for "libel and malicious falsehood" because of the review.
What to watch for
The i3 isn't set to hit showrooms until the second quarter of 2014, and right now it's too soon to predict exactly how this will affect GM and Tesla's sales. However, given BMW's reputation, the i3's reviews, and the just released base price, this is something investors would do well to monitor.
Electric cars are gaining in popularity, but they're still a niche market. Ford, however, has its hand in EVs and is starting to make its presence known in China. China is already the world's largest auto market -- and it's set to grow even bigger in coming years. A recent Motley Fool report, "2 Automakers to Buy for a Surging Chinese Market", names Ford and one other global giant, poised to reap big gains that could drive big rewards for investors. You can read this report right now for free -- just click here for instant access.
They all produce emissions. Even battery power(in manufacturing). At the tail pipe, where it counts, they are the same. 20+psi compression ratio’s makes for a very efficient engine and shouldn’t be discounted.
The cost average also includes the price of light duty trucks.
Most people shopping for oranges are not concerned with the price of apples.
That is usually the alternative.
But whatever.
They picked it as an alternative to a sports car or any other car on the market.
Real Americans with real money are buying hybrids and electrics over traditional ICE cars in the same price range.
That makes the comparison valid.
I bought my Prius last year for 21500 - not below, but comparable to non-hybrids. Had to have another car anyway and the new job requires 100+ miles/day. My last tank I got 63.5 mpg (better in summer then winter where I averaged 55mpg, I think due to fuel changes). Bought it due to the need for improved efficiency on the longer drive - has 35k miles on it in 1 1/4 year. It’s a nice car - not the truck I wanted, but sometimes you gotta do what’s right for the family and the diesel would’ve put me back another 10k.
The report I read said the average transaction price for a new car is just a tick over $31k.
That is what the average American is willing to spend on a new car.
The average American looking to a buy a new car can afford a Prius.
That is the relevant fact.
lol
Real Americans buy trucks over cars. People have reasons for choices. They are not forced in their selection.
I can understand disagreeing with subsidies for selected vehicles. Your point, not so much.
Cheers
All modes of transportation produce some pollution when the whole supply chain is looked at.
That is an obvious fact.
But some produce less than others.
Those running on electricity produced by natural gas, sunlight, nuclear,wind and yes even coal produce less on American energy sources.
And don’t feed the OPEC-Al Qaeda terrorist complex.
More power? Not hardly, unless the Europeans are dropping the output on their gas engines to make their diesels look more competitive.
Diesels just can’t turn the RPMs a gasoline engine can. It boils down to the mass of the rotating assembly. Diesels run higher compression ratios that give them their efficiency boost, but that higher compression ratio results in a higher mass rotating assembly in the engine. This limits high RPM operation. Additionally, the injectors have to handle on the order of a magnitude higher fuel pressure than the very high pressure injectors now being found in gasoline direct injected engines. Another limit on high RPM. In a diesel, to get equivalent hp as a higher revving gas motor, you have to increase boost pressure at lower RPMs. This increases torque, and therefore horsepower, but it also puts much more stress on the rotating assembly, reducing longevity.
Add in the fact that diesels still have a very real soot problem, and you need exhaust after treatment that goes beyond a simple catalytic converter. This system needs it’s own maintenance/top off cycle in addition to the fuel tank and engine oil.
Also, one more diesel negative -— unburned hydrocarbons. Diesels tend to spew pure diesel fuel into exhaust. It’s part of the soot removal system, but it also means you can never really get rid of the diesel smell completely. It also means that the soot system also has to provide a exhaust cleaning cycle where the oil left in the system is calculated by the computer, and when a preset level is met, the computer has to purposefully light the exhaust system on fire to remove the built up fuel oil.
GDI doesn’t require anything more than a typical catalytic converter. Some GDI engines also have lean burn modes that erase the efficiency gap between diesels and gasoline engines. The lean burn mode allows accurate timing of injector events such that a throttle plate is not needed (the main efficiency drop between diesels and gasoline is the throttle plate at partial loads). Instead, the cloud of fuel is injected at a very precise interval (very short) before spark is applied, and the fuel cloud burns at a stoichiometric ratio, even though a volume of air to volume of fuel ratio for the entire cylinder would indicate far too lean a mixture, such as 60 air to 1 fuel.
Many here will argue, but I would say that diesel will not be a viable road fuel here in the states for *anything* in two decades. GDI or port-injected CNG will replace it in the road going semis and heavy trucks. CNG will probably displace most diesel use in railroad fuels as well. This move would allow the petroleum refiners to have basically one product line for most of America’s land-based transportation system. GDI is even killing the need for various octane levels in fuels, since the computer is not constrained from managing the combustion cycle from the valve event that happens so far ahead of the ignition event in normal port injected gasoline engines. Most people don’t know that 87 octane gas has more energy than 93 octane in most formulations, but that a typical port injected motor can’t take advantage of the extra energy due to the fact that 87 octane fuel pre-ignites more readily in port-injected gasoline engines. GDI has no such problem.
It is a response to your contention that comparing the Prius to other cars in its price class is not valid.
That it is apples and oranges.
I compared it to the “average car” while you wanted to use the term “comparable car.”
When opponents use that term they usually mean same size car with similar acceleration.
That’s one reason I’m thankful we are producing more. Not that there haven’t been obstacles, namely our commie islamo-facist leader and his minions.
I compared it to the “average car”
You compared a hybrid cost, to the average cost of all passenger vehicles made. It just doesn't make sense.
Seems like decent progress. But I won’t get real interested until someone comes up with an all-EV with a 200 mile range for $25K.
I’m tired of changing oil and spark plugs and all the greasy maintenance that goes along with a gasoline engine, so not really interested in hybrids.
My current car is 15 years old, so unfortunately it’s probably not going to last long enough for a viable (for me) all-electric to come out.
Reaganez, I admire your enthusiasm for Tesla and the supercharger network. But what does constant usage of the supercharger have on the Tesla S battery pack? As far as I know, no one really knows the answer currently. I know the LiIo packs in the Tesla Roadster were actually doing better than expected in terms of length of existence vs. capacity.
On item #5, you said “If you define every positive review as dishonest then there can’t be one. Consumer Reports gave the Model S a 99 out of 100 rating. The highest rating ever. It is a direct replacement for the BMW 7 Series, Audi A8, Mercedes S class, and Lexus LS. The way the vast majority of those owners use them. They don’t drive from Texas to North Dakota.”
That is a pretty lame answer. First off the regular trade mags are paid shills, one way or another. Not knocking Tesla for this, they all do it. Case in point, RAM of all trucks won TOTY from Motor Trend. That right there is funny stuff.
Secondly, Consumer Reports is not to be trusted on cars by their road tests. The only useful thing they have at CR is their database of reliability on cars. Consumer Reports had a noticeable uptick of positive reviews for American cars when the body politik was attempting to drum up support for the bailouts. I haven’t trusted them since. Patriotic fervor has no place in objective reality, and consumer reports definitely falls on the side of leftist when it comes to politics in general and cars in particular.
Exactly. I think most people like a particular car for its attributes (size, etc.) and then look at options.
If I want a Toyota Highlander (for example) cause I have a largeish family and need to carry them and their stuff, then I am not going to choose a Prius.
What I will do is see how much more the hybrid Highlander costs and figure if I will put enough miles on the car to make the investment worth it.
I might have a point in terms of pure mechanics but once again.... have you ever tried a MODERN European diesel car or SUV?
Nope, no European pickups. If VW, BMW or Mercedes made a decent import pickup for a fair price, I’d give them a fair shake.
How long will it take you to haul 2 yards of gravel from the garden centre to your home in your little zoom-zoom?
I’ll keep my F-350, thanks. I’ll carry your car-car home for you when it breaks, too.
My commute would be ideal for an electric, but I already have 3 vehicles, and I cannot justify another car. I just ride my scooter most of the time. 70+ mpg, and it’s a lot of fun, too.
Pure electrics are and always will be a Niche vehicle until they come up with one that can be driven on a family trip for hundreds of miles at a time and recharged in under 15 minutes.
I drove and a 3 liter diesel BMW sedan is a better ride than a 3 liter gas one. A four liter diesel Mercedes G-wagon is just as fast as a five liter V8 G-wagon. Not to mention gas mileage. You can drive 700 miles per tank in most diesel cars.
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