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2016 forecast: Rubio, Bush, Ryan have chance to win over 40% of Latino vote
Latino Decision ^ | 07/07/2013 | by Matt Barreto

Posted on 07/07/2013 7:38:56 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

While the 2016 presidential election is a full three years away many of the high profile Republican contenders are enmeshed in the immigration reform debate, and if Republicans demonstrate strong leadership on passing comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship possible candidates such as Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan could get strong support from Latino voters. However if Rubio, Bush or Ryan distance themselves from the immigration bill and House Republicans defeat the measure none of the GOP candidates stands to improve on the historic Romney 2012 defeat among Latinos. [Full poll results here]

A new poll from Latino Decisions, on behalf of America’s Voice found Latino presidential voters are paying very close attention to the immigration debates in Washington D.C. and are evaluating the candidates by their words and actions on immigration reform. Half of the respondents were read a prompt about Rubio working to pass immigration reform:

“Currently the U.S. Congress is debating a comprehensive immigration reform bill that would provide a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants in the United States. Republican Marco Rubio played a key role in helping to pass this bill and with Rubio’s leadership undocumented immigrants receive legal status and a path to citizenship.”

Respondents were then asked how likely they would be to vote for Rubio in the 2016 presidential election. 54% of Latino voters said they were likely to vote for Rubio, including 50% of Latinos who voted for Obama in 2012, 46% of Latino Independents, and 55% of Latino voters age 18-34. However, absent any prompting about Rubio working to ensure a final bill is passed, he failed to even reach the 30% support mark among Latinos.

rubio2016

Likewise, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush stands to gain if he leans in on the immigration debate and convinces fellow Republicans to pass the bill with a path to citizenship. When respondents were read a prompt about Bush’s support for the immigration bill with a path to citizenship 47% of Latino voters said they were likely to vote for Bush in 2016, including 42% of those who just cast a ballot for Obama in 2012.

bush2016

Finally, we asked Latino voters how they would evaluate former Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan as a presidential contender in 2016. In recent weeks, Ryan has become an outspoken support of immigration reform efforts, and could emerge as a critical actor in getting a bill out of the House. We asked what effect it would have on Latino 2016 presidential voting, if Paul Ryan were to play a key role in getting immigration reform with a path to citizenship to pass the House. Overall, 44% of Latino voters say they would be likely to vote for Ryan in 2016, including 47% of Independents and 40% of Latino Obama voters. Even Ryan, who was part of the 2012 self-deport ticket, has an opportunity to rebuild his image and standing among Latinos by support immigration reform.

ryan2016

 

How much support do the GOP contenders need?

In 2012 Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 4.96 million votes, and according to Latino Decisions analysis of the election returns and Latino voting data, Latinos provided Obama with a 5.8 million vote margin. If the Republicans could have won 40% of the Latino vote in 2012 that would have erased 3.6 million net votes – or 72% of the 4.96 million they lost by. Republican don’t need to win the Latino vote outright, they just need to stop losing it so badly. Although Latinos are not the only demographic that Republicans need to improve their showing with, they represent the single largest bloc of voters who are movable. An estimated 11.2 million Latinos cast a ballot in 2012 according to the Census, and more than 12.5 million are likely to cast a vote in 2016, further increasing the share of all voters who are Latino, nationally and in key states. In 2004, George W. Bush won around 40% of the Latino vote and was able to carry states with large and growing Latino electorates like New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Florida and Virginia — all states that Obama won in 2008 and again in 2012. The polling data today suggests Rubio most of all, but Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan as well, can equal or eclipse the 40% mark among Latinos if they provide leadership on immigration reform to get a bill signed into law. However they remain far from the 40% mark right now.

The 2016 election if Immigration Reform does not pass

As we have pointed out in polling data before, Republicans will not get any credit for getting a bill through half of the Congress. Latino voters expect to see the GOP successfully move immigration reform and send a true compromise bill to the President. When asked who they would support if the 2016 presidential election were today, no more than 28% supported Rubio, no more than 25% supported Ryan, and no more than 30% supported Bush. On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton is the runaway favorite among Latinos, and would take anywhere from 66% to 74% of the Latino vote if the election were today. Vice President Joe Biden does not fare as well as Clinton though he still commands 30 to 40 point leads over Republican rivals. Thus, Republicans need some momentum with Latino voters and Latino voters seem to say that passing a comprehensive immigration reform bill is the way forward.

Latino Vote in 2016 (as of July 1, 2013)

2016vote

 

About the poll: Latino Decisions interviewed 1,200 Latino presidential voters from June 20-29, 2013. All respondents were Latinos who had voted in both the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. Respondents were interviewed by landline, cell phone, and online, in either English (61%) or Spanish (39%) at the discretion of the respondent. The poll carries an overall margin of error of +/- 2.8% on the full sample, and a margin of error of +/- 4.0% on split samples of n=600. Full toplines of the entire poll are posted here.

 



TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016gopprimary; amnesty; bush; destroyus; latino; latinovote; nwo; rubio; ryan
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1 posted on 07/07/2013 7:38:56 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Spare me.

Yes, legal Latinos want job competition from millions of amnestied illegals.


2 posted on 07/07/2013 7:41:03 PM PDT by headstamp 2 (What would Scooby do?)
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To: SeekAndFind

wha a joke


3 posted on 07/07/2013 7:42:30 PM PDT by GeronL
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To: SeekAndFind
Any of the three would đrive the country further into the Hole. Jeb is the Republican Designated Nominee. Speculation on anyone else is futile.
4 posted on 07/07/2013 7:42:38 PM PDT by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson ONLINE http://steshaw.org/econohttp://www.fee.org/library/det)
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To: SeekAndFind
A study about Rubio appeared a few days ago - he would receive 1% more of the Hispanic vote than Romeny got.

Democrats are the party of white liberal elites and poor blacks and hispanics who prop them up.

We need to STOP wasting our time going after black and Hispanic votes... and shore up our base.

5 posted on 07/07/2013 7:43:14 PM PDT by GOPJ (In the kingdom of the blind, the one eyed man is a dangerous extremist.. Greenfield)
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To: SeekAndFind

And lose 80% of their base.


6 posted on 07/07/2013 7:44:11 PM PDT by aquila48
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To: SeekAndFind

7 posted on 07/07/2013 7:44:23 PM PDT by HerrBlucher (Praise to the Lord the Almighty the King of Creation)
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To: SeekAndFind

And lose 65% of the Conservative vote.


8 posted on 07/07/2013 7:44:42 PM PDT by tennmountainman
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To: GOPJ
We need to STOP wasting our time going after black and Hispanic votes... and shore up our base.

We need to stop pandering to demographic groups, stand squarely for conservatism...thus, retaining our base and attracting a few more points from every demographic that is responsive to a conservative message.

The GOP doesn't need to "win" the Hispanic vote...or the black vote...they just need to increase their percentage from 30 to 33% and from 8 to 10%, respectively, to win the general election.

9 posted on 07/07/2013 7:50:19 PM PDT by okie01 (The Mainstream Media: IGNORANCE ON PARADE)
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To: okie01

Lucy would you hold the football for me?


10 posted on 07/07/2013 7:53:50 PM PDT by morphing libertarian
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To: SeekAndFind

Propaganda. It will never happen..


11 posted on 07/07/2013 7:54:23 PM PDT by cardinal4 (Skip impeachment and move straight to deportation..)
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To: SeekAndFind
One suspects that the Democrat thumb was measurably on the scale for this alleged "poll".

Mister Rubio (and his RINO comrades) will be jobless after the 2016 primary. That is the "poll" I'm waiting for.

.

12 posted on 07/07/2013 7:58:50 PM PDT by Seaplaner (Never give in. Never give in. Never...except to convictions of honour and good sense. W. Churchill)
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To: headstamp 2
Spare me. Yes, legal Latinos want job competition from millions of amnestied illegals.

Good point. Lots of established legal Latinos lived here with respect and acceptance from all of us... then liberal elites wanted a cheap servant class to keep farm prices down and gardeners and nannies to take care of them... Dreadful.

13 posted on 07/07/2013 8:00:12 PM PDT by GOPJ (In the kingdom of the blind, the one eyed man is a dangerous extremist.. Greenfield)
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To: SeekAndFind

LOL!

What a joke. What a fraud. Who did this spin job? This rope-a-dope? Soros? LaRaza?

Kick the illegals out of the country and seal the border.


14 posted on 07/07/2013 8:03:05 PM PDT by isthisnickcool (NO MORE IRS!)
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To: SeekAndFind

No!

GOP establishment we did it your way, the last two times around the track.

Now we do things our way.


15 posted on 07/07/2013 8:05:12 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network
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To: SeekAndFind

If we don’t give amnesty to 20+ million illegals and allow tens of millions of their relatives to come in thru chain migration, we are dead as a party. /s


16 posted on 07/07/2013 8:07:04 PM PDT by umgud (2A can't survive dem majorities)
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To: headstamp 2

I second that “spare me”. Other polls show that Latinos won’t vote for Republicans even if this fiasco does pass. We’ve heard this same line for decades re the black vote, and they always turn out for the ‘rats. The only way the GOP might peel a few votes off, is by promising even more gibmes than the ‘rats already do, and that wouldn’t be easy, though they could kill what remains of the conservative base by raising their taxes even more to pay for the bribes.


17 posted on 07/07/2013 8:10:28 PM PDT by mrsmel (One Who Can See)
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To: SeekAndFind

Rubio could get 100% of the “Latino” vote in a Spanish speaking country.

Maybe he should move there. That’s obviously the people he cares about.


18 posted on 07/07/2013 8:10:34 PM PDT by Regulator
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To: okie01
We need to stop pandering to demographic groups, stand squarely for conservatism...thus, retaining our base and attracting a few more points from every demographic that is responsive to a conservative message.

I agree.

19 posted on 07/07/2013 8:13:26 PM PDT by GOPJ (In the kingdom of the blind, the one eyed man is a dangerous extremist.. Greenfield)
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To: SeekAndFind

That vote won’t make up for the lost conservative vote!!!

I for one won’t vote for those jerks!


20 posted on 07/07/2013 8:13:41 PM PDT by dalereed
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