Poll: Clinton tops Bush, Rubio among Hispanic voters for 2016

A new poll of likely Hispanic voters in the 2016 presidential election shows strong support for the two candidates seen as potential Democratic nominees: former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vice President Biden.

The survey, by Latino Decisions, also revealed Republican candidates continue to significantly trail among Hispanic voters, with even champions of immigration reform like Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush significantly behind top Democrats.

That deficit could again prove significant in 2016, when the pollsters estimate that the Hispanic vote will approach 12.5 million. In 2012, exit polls suggested 71 percent of Hispanic voters broke for President Obama.

Clinton remains the most popular candidate among the Hispanic electorate, mirroring other recent national surveys. The former first lady is seen positively by 73 percent of likely Hispanic voters, while 17 percent have a negative view.

That's enough for a substantial lead over Biden, who holds a 58-21 percent favorability rating. Rubio, meanwhile, carries a narrow 31-29 positive favorability rating. Some four in 10 probable Hispanic voters, though, say they don't know the Florida lawmaker, who has helped push for comprehensive immigration reform in the Senate.

Jeb Bush — also a proponent of immigration reform — is underwater with his favorability ranking. While a third of Hispanic voters don't know him, 39 percent view him unfavorably and 27 percent view him favorably.

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), the Republican vice presidential candidate in 2012, is viewed favorably by just two in 10 Hispanic voters. Half say they don't know the House Budget Committee chairman, and 31 percent view him unfavorably.

The top performing Republican among Hispanic voters was New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who carries a 38-12 percent favorability rating. Half of voters though say they have no opinion of Christie.

Shouldn't this be all you need to know about the "value" of this poll?

Latino Decisions provides objective data to a diverse client base of leading companies, organizations and research institutions.

Media

• ABC News

• impreMedia (La Opinión ~ El Diario ~ La Prensa ~ El Nuevo Herald)

• Los Angeles Times

• Mamiverse.com

• National Hispanic Media Coalition

• Univision Noticias

Organizations

• AARP

• American Jewish Committee

• America's Voice Education Fund

• Mi Familia Vota

• National Association of Latino Elected & Appointed Officials (NALEO)

• National Council of La Raza (NCLR)

• We Are America Alliance

AllahPundit of Hotair Observes:

Another key tidbit from the same poll conducted by Latino Decisions:

Granted, it’s one thing for pro-immigration-reform voters to say they’ll vote for someone who champions their pet issue and another thing for them to actually do it. And granted, if you believe the rhetoric coming out of the House (which I really don’t), there’s virtually no chance of a bill passing both chambers that has a special path to citizenship in it for illegals. Again, though: The name of the game here is electability, and that number helps Rubio make his case to GOP undecideds that he’s Mr. Electability in the field. Don’t forget too that when the first primary polls between Hillary and Obama were taken in 2007, Hillary won the black vote easily; that quickly changed as O’s candidacy gained credibility, the theory being that many black voters were unfamiliar with Obama initially and didn’t think a black candidate had a real chance to win. Maybe you’ll see some lesser variation of that with Latinos — early support for the Democratic nominee and then, as they get to know Rubio, some switching as the campaign wears on. There won’t be any sort of sea change of the sort you saw among blacks between Hillary and O for the simple reason that that was an intraparty dispute, with the candidates pushing similar philosophies, and this would be an interparty one. But you may see some. Expect to hear Team Rubio mention it early and often if/when he gears up to run.

One gray lining in the silver cloud for Rubio fans, though: If Democrats see their support among Latinos starting to erode, they’re going to ratchet up the election-year demagoguery from an eight or nine to 11. Some of that will involve escalating attacks on Rubio and the GOP as anti-Latino (“Don’t forget, Rubio demanded more border security before rubber-stamping amnesty!”) but mostly, I think, it’ll come in the form of promises to Latino voters to relax some of the harsher rules in the new immigration law, if one passes, or to pass something lax themselves if nothing has yet. This is the flip side to the argument that we should nominate Rubio to neutralize Hillary’s Latino advantage. If Rubio really does end up being stronger with Latinos than anyone expects, the pressure on Democrats to pander on immigration even more than they usually do will be tremendous. We might well end up with an immigration law even weaker than Gang of Eight bill. Going to be a tough “electability” calculus for Republicans come 2016.

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