STORY IA-MARSHALL IA-JASPER IA-
743 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN JASPER...
SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN STORY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...
AT 739 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STATE CENTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.
HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STATE CENTER...ST. ANTHONY...MELBOURNE...CLEMONS...HAVERHILL AND
LAUREL.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM SWRN TX TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...
SECONDARY MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...ON THE ORDER OF 60KT AT 500 MB...IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO NRN OK BY 21/00Z. WHILE LATE DAY1 CONVECTION MAY DISTURB LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN KS INTO MO...IT APPEARS LARGE SCALE INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING SPEED MAX SHOULD SHARPEN SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS OK BY PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RENEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MDT RISK REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF HAIL...MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS SERN KS/MO ALONG THE NOSE OF VEERED LLJ. THIS CONVECTION MAY TEMPORARILY DISPLACE THE SYNOPTIC FRONT OR PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCE OUTFLOW THAT BECOMES A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST TX INTO SWRN OK WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 90S. ALONG/NORTH OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL JET CORE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SUCH THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL EASILY DEVELOP ALONG AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO MO AND SHARPENING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE FARTHER WEST. IN FACT...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BY 20-21Z ACROSS OK WHERE SBCAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IN EXCESS OF 50KT THROUGH 6KM...AND THE PROSPECT FOR A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR FAVOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AT LEAST THROUGH MID EVENING OF THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AND WITH TIME ONE OR MORE MCS/S SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER OK. AMPLE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
Thanks dirtboy...