Posted on 05/14/2013 8:25:13 AM PDT by Red Badger
A steeper-than-expected rise in US shale oil reserves is about to change the global balance of power between new and existing producers, a report says.
Over the next five years, the US will account for a third of new oil supplies, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The US will change from the world's leading importer of oil to a net exporter.
Demand for oil from Middle-East oil producers is set to slow as a result.
"North America has set off a supply shock that is sending ripples throughout the world," said IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven.
The surge in US production will reshape the whole industry, according to the IEA, which made the prediction in its closely-watched bi-annual report examining trends in oil supply and demand over the next five years.
The IEA said it expected the US to overtake Russia as the world's biggest gas producer by 2015 and to become "all but self-sufficient" in its energy needs by about 2035.
The rise in US production means the world's reliance on oil from traditional oil producing countries in the Middle East, which make up Opec (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), would end soon, according to the report.
Slower growth
US production is set to grow by 3.9 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) from 2012 to 2018, accounting for some two-thirds of the predicted growth in traditional non-Opec production, according to the IEA. Continue reading the main story “Start Quote
The regional fallout from the 'Arab Spring' is taking a toll on investment and capacity growth”
IEA
Meanwhile, global oil demand is set to increase by 8% which would be met mainly by non-Opec supplies, the report said
(Excerpt) Read more at bbc.co.uk ...
You have it backwards. We import as much oil as we produce ourselves. We refine more than we use and export the surplus. Our refining capacity is above our refined product usage.
It amazes me how articles like this continue to miss the point.
The implication here is that US shale oil and gas are something unique.
In fact, many if not most countries of the world have such resources, some in much greater quantity than ours.
We just got a headstart on accessing them because the tech was invented here. (What does that say about our “inability to innovate?”)
When the shale fields in Oz, Russia, Argentina, S. Africa, Brazil, Europe, etc. come on-line, then we’ll have something. While prices won’t go down since fracking is more expensive than just drilling a hole, they will in all probability stabilize.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:EIA_World_Shale_Gas_Map.png
While OPEC nations will continue to rake in money, their political power will disappear, since they won’t be able to shut off the supply when they choose. Very good thing.
It is also not at all unlikely that more energy and money efficient ways of accessing this oil and gas will be invented. There are truly massive incentives for anybody who comes up with such a process.
Are you saying it is false? Or is the oil just now more recoverable because it's been lifted or displaced by something else?
I liked the gas price when we were pumping oil at >9,000.
May God continue to bless our oil companies. If our government was one-tenth as intelligent as the men who run EXXON and Conoco, this would not be a failing economy.
Maybe we should slant drill into the Saudi reserves?
Many people confuse applying enhanced oil recovery methods to old wells with new oil in the field.
Simple pumping and the like may only recover 20% from the original drilling. Companies go back, rework wells, apply water flood, CO2 flood and other methods and a “played out” field “suddenly” has more oil.
The proved reserves of that field may double from the original, but the original oil in place hasn’t changed. When companies announce reserves in place, they must be based upon the current technology AND the current price. Some of the oil will cost to much to get at $20 but is recoverable at $80. A lot of that has happened over the years.
Occasionally you can get a couple pockets connected by a fault line. If you pump the pressure down in one and not in the other, the oil may move along the fault to the field you originally pumped from. That condition is rare but has been documented a few times.
I never said we drill all the oil we use- I said the problem is that we are at capacity in regards to refineries production and export the rest- and agaIN, IF we go energy indepedent, companies will still export because they get mroe overseas which will keep prices high-
Michelle backman said that if she were elected she woudl have been abvle to reduce hte price of gasoline to arounf 2-2 1/2 dollars or whatever it was before dearl eader took over- not sure how she woudl have accomplished that-
Gasoline is a global commodity for which crude oil cost is only one factor. Other factors include global demand, global refining capacity, state and federal regulation (including ethanol), taxes, and transportation.
[[If we are not paying market rates for the product,]]
This might be a problem as thigns produced here generally costm ore than thigns that we import- hence why we import- not sure if import oil is cheaper than domestically produced oil, but it woudl seem that it will be quite expensive to go compeltely domestic for our total oil use- Derek workers get a massive salary as opposed to oil workers overseas- as well oil companies here have to pay farm ore in fines, permits etc etcd etc- Import oil may be what’s keeping prices down some- I don’t know-
No, you said:
The drilling isn’t the problem-
I disagree. We get about the same amount of oil from OPEC as Texas, North Dakota and Alaska combined.
I said the problem is that we are at capacity in regards to refineries production and export the rest
No, you said:
We’re suppsoedly ‘at capacity’ in regards to our refineries and what they can handle- the problem is two fold- congress has prevented the companies from making enough refineries- and 2 since we can’t refine anym ore, we are exportign oil
We export essentially no crude oil, but we export our surplus of refined product.
Michelle backman said that if she were elected she woudl have been abvle to reduce hte price of gasoline to arounf 2-2 1/2 dollars or whatever it was before dearl eader took over- not sure how she woudl have accomplished that-
She could only accomplish that with price controls or other subsidies. It was a foolish statement designed to appeal to those that don't know better.
Do you know of a chart for total US energy production (oil,gas, coal...) over us demand.
Barrel equivalents, btu, calories...no difference.
I would like to see if we are in fact gaining and at what rate.
Pause for a moment and think of the miracle of a gallon of gasoline.
Think about how much human effort would be required to move a 3 thousand pound vehicle and six people 20 miles.
Oil is like gold, silver, wheat etc. It is a globally priced commodity. It doesn't matter where it comes from for the price. What does matter is quality and the cost of transportation. That is variation in price.
I think you’re missing hwat I was stating- IF we go energy indepedent, we set our own prices- and export prices will be higher makign it more attractive to export- and we’ll essentially be i nthe same perdicament we’re in now-
Venezuala is apaprently 12Cents per gallon in us dollars, nigeria, egypt etc are all below 1 dolalr gallon- their labor is dirt cheap but our labor is very expensive-
You said oil prices are the same everywhere- thsi isn’t true for ‘oil independent’ areas liek venezuala and others (We of course won’t be exporting to these countries, and wil instead export to the more expensive coutnries— )- global market values are not affectign htsoe coutnries-
“I am not a geologist. I just know that many of the wells we pumped dry in the early part of the last century are full again. That is especially true in California and Pennsylvania.”
It’s called migration! When we drill a well that zone is under pressure and that pressure is released through the well bore. We’ll let them flow as long as possible until the pressures drop to the point we have to use some type of artificial lift system. When it first starts the migration is intense and move allot of oil but as the pressure goes down so does the migration. at some point the migration is so slow and pressures so low that it doesn’t migrate fast enough to warrant pumping (cost more to pump than what you’ll make). I’ve got 2 flowing wells that I only open Once a week for about one day. I’ve got several pumping wells that I shut in in 98 and didn’t kick them back on until two years later. When they came on they produce about 3 times as much oil as they had before but that fell of rather fast back to it’s old production rates. Technicaly a well never goes dry it just gets to the point it’s not profitable to pump. Time is not your friend on down hole equipment and given enough it destroys your casing resultin a casing collapse or leak and then You plug it and walk away to the next one.
I’m sorry- thsoe were 2005 prices in those cheap gasoline countries- however, I imagien they are still quite low
I think I am missing what you are trying to convey.
IF we go energy indepedent, we set our own prices
we set our own prices there is your false assumption. The producers will not spend money in this country to sell at below market rates.
It would take subsidies or price control along with nationalizing the industry to accomplish what you suggest. Not a road I want us to follow.
Venezuala is apaprently 12Cents per gallon in us dollars, nigeria, egypt etc are all below 1 dolalr gallon- their labor is dirt cheap but our labor is very expensive-
Their price is only that cheap because the government subsidies the cost.
You said oil prices are the same everywhere- thsi isn’t true for ‘oil independent’ areas liek venezuala and others
Yes it is, unless the government forces it different.
Try changing oil for gold and see how your situation would work.
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