Immigration reform won't deliver a Latino voter 'bonanza' to Democrats

The Guardian ^ | 04/24/2013 | Harry J Enten

[SeekAndFind]

I have been quite skeptical about the ability of the Republican party to win over Latino voters. As others and I have noted, Latinos don't vote Democratic just because of immigration policy. They vote Democratic because they are more ideologically "in sync" with the Democratic party. That's why I've felt that going along with immigration reform was unlikely to net Republicans many Latino voters.

That said, I can't agree either with the math in a Politico article titled "Immigration reform could be a bonanza for Democrats". The article starts off promisingly enough with the premise that if immigration reform passed and undocumented immigrants became citizens, Latinos would start voting Democratic in even larger numbers. The main reason anyone votes for or against a political party is for its economic platform, and 81% of first generation Latino immigrants say they want a "bigger government with more services", compared to only 48% of Americans overall.

Politico then uses the commonly quoted figure of 11 million undocumented immigrants and claims that there would, therefore, be "up to" 11 million undocumented immigrants up for grabs if they all became citizens. If these 11 million then voted along the lines of the Latinos who cast a ballot in 2012, Obama would have won the national vote by 7pt instead of 4pt. He could have carried Arizona and even Texas, which were each won comfortably by Republican Mitt Romney.

The problem I have, though, is why would anyone use the 11 million figure for reference.

First off, 1 million undocumented immigrants are under the age of 18. I don't care what your immigration status is, you can't vote in United States presidential elections if you are under the age of 18.

Second, of the 10 million adults, 19% aren't actually Latino; 11% are Asian.

[SeekAndFind]

Asian voting patterns tend to be less stable than Latinos. In the past election, Asians went for President Obama by about 45pt. Twenty years ago, they went for Republican George HW Bush. Without more research (and there is surprisingly little of it), it's unclear to know how undocumented Asian voting patterns would change given immigration reform. Also, keep in mind that about 60% of these Asian immigrants are in California and Washington State alone – so they're not exactly going to be a game-changer in the electoral college.

[BO Stinkss]

I smell BS

[warchild9]

There’s no “bonanza” to be had. Mexicans already overwhelmingly vote Democratic.

Which is why the Democrats fight voter ID here in North Carolina so rigorously.

/Saw lots of illegals voting in the last election

[Cowboy Bob]

These new voters will support whichever party offers them the most money. period.

[Bayard]

No voters under the age of 18... really? Now who’s being naive.

[grobdriver]

They vote Democratic because they are more ideologically "in sync" with the Democratic party gives them stuff.

Are there no editors in the UK?

[MNDude]

Fear not good citizens of Nanking, the people at your gates will do you no harm.

[9YearLurker]

There are probably at least four times the 8 million Hispanic illegals here than the estimate this guy came up with.

Having been to college in white bread NH and interned at propagandistic NBC, I could see how he could be so ignorant. But everyone should see through his myopia with clear vision.

[GraceG]

Makr Levin covered this last night, they are making it appear that the bill is something the dims disagree with on the face of it while the dims are in the backroom gleefully rubbing their hands together in great pleasure...

[LibLieSlayer]

Propaganda... ALL ILLEGALS WANT OUR STUFF FOR FREE!!!

LLS

[max americana]

One of my best friends here is a right-wing Filipino. Very rare as ALL Filipino weeklies here are pro-obama and pro-immigration. He couldn’t stand reading the editorials and that’s how they lean in general. But there’s a large number of Flips’ too who are Republicans, I know of.

[mosesdapoet]

AMNESTY TWO ISSUES NEVER TOUCHED

ACTIVE FR’S IF YOU SEE ANY CREDITABLE REPORTS OF PROBLEMS AMERICAN CITIZENS ARE HAVING WHILE LIVING IN MEXICO PLEASE POST THEM.....

(1) When is the treatment of American citizens in Mexico and their rights vs US treatment of Mexicans going to be an issue when we discuss amnesty ?

This is a question: Should Mexican citizens when in the US be given the same rights American citizens are given while in Mexico? This has yet to appear on any US legislator’s questionaire from either chamber....ASK YOUR FEDERAL LEGISLATORS WHY IT HASN’T ...OR WHY THAT GOVERNMENT LAYS CLAIMS THROUGH ITS EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM TO US SOUTHWESTERN STATES AS THEIRS.

(2) What makes it necessary for US to subjugate our sovereignty because of available cheap labor ? While the Godless Demo-Coms socialists encourage population control and abortion . Then complain the US is not reproducing enough citizens to replace its aging retiring workforce. But rely on (as the Romans did) on foreigners (barbarians) .to keep their welfare ponzie schemes supplied with tax money and keep the system working..

Ever hear of reciprocal aggrements ? These are arranged to protect the rights of American citizens working or living in other countries.

Why is it when it comes to citizens of other countries we are required to offer them the same privledges as we do to US citizens? But when it comes to US citizens who get in trouble or attempt to do business in other countries they do not get the same treatment their citizens get.

Americans can’t own coast land in Mexico. And get no title to it elsewhere. If they run out of cash they’ll get unceremoniously sent back or put in jail untill some relative comes up with the “fresh”. That’s just for starters as for granting them voting privledges yea let’s give Mexican citizens that right when American citizens vote in their elections .

[Williams]

BS. First off, Politico was talking about 10 years from now. So the illegals 8 and up today will be voters then. As each year goes on, more of them and all their kids will be.

Also Obama got the Asian vote too. Si pointing out they aren’t all hispanic is BS.

Think Obama is getting the muslim vote too, for example?

Believe me, if hispanics start voting republican, the democrats will start deporting their asses out of here and branding them as despicable criminals who are stealing jobs from Americans.

You don’t think for a moment Charles Schumer actually CARES about any of these people?

[Williams]

Here is a sensible amnesty proposal.

IF you are here illegally and leave within 12 months, you will be allowed to apply for admission legally and in the ordinary course from your home country.

If you are here illegally after 12 months, no amnesty and you will never be eligible.

That is an amnesty that makes sense for America.

[Vaduz]

1 million undocumented immigrants are under the age of 18. I don’t care what your immigration status is, you can’t vote in United States.
Age isn’t an issue with the dems all they need is a name,guess why they hate voter Id.

[Flintlock]

Disinformantion.

The hell it won’t.

[pallis]

Republican leaders are determined to have Mexico elect our next Democrat president. After all, they’ve done such a wonderful job in Mexico.

[wardaddy]

We have exponentially more orientals now

Fresher data base than then

I think its more that than them moving left since GHWB

[thorvaldr]

Yes, that is what is called propaganda. The Democrats goal in amnesty is not to ingratiate Latinos, the goal is to import new Democrat voters. The Democrats have made sure that even legal immigration works this way. It is extremely hard to immigrate here from Europe but much easier to come from some third world country so that you can get on welfare and vote to keep your welfare check.