Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The Pension Rate-of-Return Fantasy (Sadly, the only thing left is to cut retiree payouts)
Wall Street Journal ^ | 04/10/2013 | Andy Kessler

Posted on 04/10/2013 6:22:33 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

It has been said that an actuary is someone who really wanted to be an accountant but didn't have the personality for it. See who's laughing now. Things are starting to get very interesting, actuarially-speaking.

Federal bankruptcy judge Christopher Klein ruled on April 1 that Stockton, Calif., can file for bankruptcy via Chapter 9 (Chapter 11's ugly cousin). The ruling may start the actuarial dominoes falling across the country, because Stockton's predicament stems from financial assumptions that are hardly restricted to one improvident California municipality.

Stockton may expose the little-known but biggest lie in global finance: pension funds' expected rate of return. It turns out that the California Public Employees' Retirement System, or Calpers, is Stockton's largest creditor and is owed some $900 million. But in the likelihood that U.S. bankruptcy law trumps California pension law, Calpers might not ever be fully repaid.

So what? Calpers has $255 billion in assets to cover present and future pension obligations for its 1.6 million members. Yes, but . . . in March, Calpers Chief Actuary Alan Milligan published a report suggesting that various state employee and school pension funds are only 62%-68% funded 10 years out and only 79%-86% funded 30 years out. Mr. Milligan then proposed—and Calpers approved—raising state employer contributions to the pension fund by 50% over the next six years to return to full funding. That is money these towns and school systems don't really have. Even with the fee raise, the goal of being fully funded is wishful thinking.

Pension math is more art than science. Actuaries guess, er, compute how much money is needed today based on life expectancies of retirees as well as the expected investment return on the pension portfolio. Shortfalls, or "underfunded pension liabilities," need to be made up by employers

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: pension; stockton; stocktonpensions
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-22 next last

1 posted on 04/10/2013 6:22:33 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
Just raise taxes to fix it.

That always fixes everything.

2 posted on 04/10/2013 6:23:37 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("Somebody has to be courageous enough to stand up to the bullies." --Dr. Ben Carson)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
Pension math is more art than science.

For so many years, 6-8% has been used for growth projection assumptions--perhaps even more in some cases. Those numbers have not consistently been available since the mid-1990's.

3 posted on 04/10/2013 6:27:12 AM PDT by Lou L (Health "insurance" is NOT the same as health "care")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: E. Pluribus Unum
And then waste the tax revenues on extravagances and silly pork programs and when you run out of money, raise the taxes more. And cover your tracks by blaming the successful for not paying their fair share all the while knowing that just taxing the rich will not fill the gap.

Who cares, you won't be around when the fit hits the shan and the American people are too dumb to know any different. /sarc

4 posted on 04/10/2013 6:29:31 AM PDT by dhs12345
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Lou L

RE: For so many years, 6-8% has been used for growth projection assumptions

And what do they base this assumption on?


5 posted on 04/10/2013 6:33:00 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Take 60% of what you were “promised”,
or get 0% of what you were “promised”.


6 posted on 04/10/2013 6:34:59 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
And what do they base this assumption on?

I believe those figures are based upon the average historical growth in equities (somewhere around 7%).

Extrapolating, a conservative investment in an index fund should generate about 7% annually, doubling your principle investment about every 10 years (Rule of 72). Unfortunately, I don't think the stock market's been anywhere near this level on either the current 5- or 10-year return rate.

7 posted on 04/10/2013 6:45:17 AM PDT by Lou L (Health "insurance" is NOT the same as health "care")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Lou L

So, why not put the money into the S&P 500 and be done with it?


8 posted on 04/10/2013 6:49:41 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I don’t think CA has even bothered to make the most obvious and easy of reforms. For example, end the practice of allowing pension “spiking” whereby retiring employees sell back accumulated sick and vacation time, which is then counted as salary for the pension calculation. And AFAIK there is no limit to how much sick and vacation time can be accrued. People take full advantage of this and end up with pensions greater than their final year salary.


9 posted on 04/10/2013 6:50:19 AM PDT by barefoot_hiker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
So, why not put the money into the S&P 500 and be done with it?

That's probably the most sensible way to handle such large sums of OPM, but I'm sure pension managers can't help but get "cute" with it. They'll move assets around to diversify, or maybe try to time the market to avoid big down years, or maybe even try to chase returns...investing in "green energy" and other trendy positions.

10 posted on 04/10/2013 6:54:23 AM PDT by Lou L (Health "insurance" is NOT the same as health "care")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Another good post, SeekAndFind.

I’ve been telling my cow-orkers this for a while; the pension system will collapse and anyone relying on it will become part of the new proletariat who rises up to TAKE what they ARE DUE.

I have no idea why people continue to make unrealistic promises. I guess human beings never learn.


11 posted on 04/10/2013 6:57:13 AM PDT by bolobaby
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Yep, the looting of the public treasury continues, secured by the collateral of your family home, your car, your business, and everything else they can think to seize to make good the promises of people who never had to pay the bill in the first place.

Every city budget should run exactly one year with the only liabilities at the end being bonded debt used for construction of city projects. End all benefits for all government employees - give them a set salary, let them buy whatever they wish with their money - health insurance, pensions, sick days, family leave, whatever.


12 posted on 04/10/2013 7:07:32 AM PDT by kingu (Everything starts with slashing the size and scope of the federal government.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

“RE: For so many years, 6-8% has been used for growth projection assumptions
And what do they base this assumption on?”

I received a letter and a check from a former employer when I was in my mid 50’s. It seems the employer had decided to cash out its pension plan. The check covered the equivalent of 3 years worth of benefits. My life expectancy per the actuarial tables at age 65 is 17 years. It seems Mr. Boehner slipped a provision in a bill in the mid 2000’s allowing private pension plans to use an 8% discount rate when calculating payouts when ending plans. Of course it doesn’t matter that there is no place I could invest the lump sum and realize a guaranteed 8% annual return.

At that point I knew the Republican Party was a tool of multinational corporations. It has zero interest in the average citizen and when given a choice between supporting the goals of big donors or protecting the rights of citizens it will always choose the former.

When I joined the former employer (nonunion salaried employee in a “right to work state”) I accepted the lowest salary I was offered at the time (i had 3 competing offers) because the employer had good benefits and a good reputation for treating employees well. It also had a reputation for paying low salaries but it was understood the benefits offset the lower pay. I viewed employment as a contract. I performed my job in exchange for salary and benefits, with some of the benefits (pension) delayed to a future date. Whether or not the corporation put aside the savings on my lower than market salary isn’t the point. It was their obligation to provide the benefit if I performed in my job.

Many private companies failed to set aside sufficient funds to pay employee benefits resulting in the unfunded pension liability situation which is similar to the issue in the public sector. Essentially Congress has allowed the employer to escape paying a substantial amount of the deferred benefits. This is equivalent to stealing the work I performed in exchange for these benefits. This is one more example that contract law no longer exists in the politicized legal environment. Just as the federal government stole from the GM bondholders to benefit the unions during the bankruptcy, in this instance Congress is allowing big corporations to pay out pension benefits for pennies on the dollar. The result is higher reported profits and increased bonuses for current management at the expense of those who did not receive full compensation for their labor.


13 posted on 04/10/2013 8:10:54 AM PDT by Soul of the South (Yesterday is gone. Today will be what we make of it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: bolobaby

“...my cow-orkers...”

So, exactly how does one “ork” a cow?

Sorry, had to be done. :)


14 posted on 04/10/2013 8:28:11 AM PDT by PLMerite (Shut the Beyotch Down! Burn, baby, burn!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: bolobaby

Ouch! That’s gonna leave a scar. That’s what I have been predicting. They are pissing off people with the skills, knowledge, wherewithal, finances, etc to damage those in high places who think they are safe.

The school teachers may be somewhat docile but fireman and policeman are not, throw in many gov.con workers who know things and there will be trouble.

I think the elites plan on heading to the bunkers while topside burns for a few weeks, then come out with all their new toys when there is much smaller population to deal with, but I am half crazy so who knows?


15 posted on 04/10/2013 9:00:04 AM PDT by winodog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: PLMerite

Ask Dilbert - he coined the term


16 posted on 04/10/2013 10:13:11 AM PDT by bolobaby
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: kingu

Yes. Absolutely.


17 posted on 04/10/2013 10:28:50 AM PDT by RedHeeler
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Actually, the rational thing to do is pension “adjustments”. That is, start the cutting by looking at the pensions that are being paid compared to equivalent pensions in solvent markets.

If they average pension for a given type of job around the US is $40,000, but in a few states it is over $100,000, it would not be unreasonable to cut it to the national average, then make an upward adjustment, a COLA, based on the local economy. So instead of $100,000 a year, they get perhaps $43,000.

Just doing this, many pension funds would quickly become far more solvent.


18 posted on 04/10/2013 11:58:21 AM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy (Best WoT news at rantburg.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: barefoot_hiker
I don’t think CA has even bothered to make the most obvious and easy of reforms. For example, end the practice of allowing pension “spiking” whereby retiring employees sell back accumulated sick and vacation time, which is then counted as salary for the pension calculation. And AFAIK there is no limit to how much sick and vacation time can be accrued. People take full advantage of this and end up with pensions greater than their final year salary.

Vacation and sick leave payouts aren't the big problem. What really hurts is the end of career salary spikes if allowed, lack of matching contributions, and crappy investment decisions.

19 posted on 04/10/2013 5:25:47 PM PDT by EVO X
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: EVO X

Dunno. Seems like if someone sells back $30K worth of leave x 90% (public safety pension), thats an additional $27K per year of pension for life. That increment is larger than the entire annual pension many private sector works end up getting.

For a public employee making $60-$80/hr, it’s not that hard to accumulate a large pot of unused leave.

I have no issue with the unused leave being paid out, but including it in the pension calculation is absurd. I also think they need a “use it or lose it” rule regarding unused leave time (like most all private companies have). Allowing the accumulation of unused leave without limit is also financially unsound.


20 posted on 04/11/2013 6:49:53 AM PDT by barefoot_hiker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-22 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson