Many here think that Allah and a caliphate is behind the turmoil. Actually, business is the morivating force of the people with money, the GCC.
They need peace to do business and grow and make money. Iraq needed to be eliminated as a problem and then Syria. It is coming to pass.
The Gulf Arabs have both money and power and are prevailing.
Iran?..... next
The struggle is between Iran and the Saudi royals, and this has been going on since Carter was screwing things up and Khomeini took over. Saddam wanted to rule the works, and wanted more oil, but that proved to be more difficult that he’d anticipated.
The Iran-Iraq war was enormously costly in lives and Saudi/Kuwaiti treasure. A year or so after its conclusion, Saddam invaded Kuwait and was paid off to leave. A year or so after that, Saddam invaded Kuwait and planned to stay for the oil. And all that time the American left was on his side, every step of the way, regurgitating Saddam’s/NPR’s talking points about how Kuwait was really just part of Iraq in the first place. That did not change, and still has not changed.
The jihad against the Russian occupation/puppet regime in Afghanistan was massively financed by the Gulf States, and resulted in Russian-Iranian rapprochement which continues today. The Russian-engineered Afghan mess — a land grab, and continuation of Russia’s containment policy toward China — led to a shifting of alliances and disintegration of the never-stable political climate of Pakistan. Pakistan and China strengthened ties after the US punished the Pakis over their Bomb project, India diversified its arms sources and increased its economic development, Russia helped Iran develop its nuclear programs and missiles.
As long as their check cashes, the Saudi-US relationship will remain a cruel necessity. As soon as that stops — due to the overthrow of the 3000 corrupt princes, or a cratering of the price of oil — that inferno of 800 Kuwaiti oilwell fires at the end of the Gulf War will look like a birthday cake full of candles.