Posted on 02/05/2013 11:07:51 AM PST by SeekAndFind
The CBO has just published its Budget and Economic Outlook.The big headline: the CBO expects the U.S. budget deficit to fall to $845 billion this year. This would be the first reading under $1 trillion in five years.
They also estimate that the deficit falls to $616 billion in 2014 and as low as $430 billion in 2015.
They assume unemployment rates of 8.0 percent in 2013 and 7.6 percent in 2014. They also assume GDP growth of 1.4 percent in 2013 accelerating to 3.4 percent in 2014.
Here are the CBO's long-term budget projections:
And here are the economic projections:
Download the full report here.
Below is the CBO's statement:
========================
Economic growth will remain slow this year, CBO anticipates, as gradual improvement in many of the forces that drive the economy is offset by the effects of budgetary changes that are scheduled to occur under current law. After this year, economic growth will speed up, CBO projects, causing the unemployment rate to decline and inflation and interest rates to eventually rise from their current low levels. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate is expected to remain above 7½ percent through next year; if that happens, 2014 will be the sixth consecutive year with unemployment exceeding 7½ percent of the labor force—the longest such period in the past 70 years.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Government programs always cost more than projected; cost overruns on government contracts are the norm; the government always spends more year-over-year; economic projections invariably are rosier than ultimate reality . . . but the CBO says the deficit will narrow going forward. How quaint.
They are not correct because they are lied to and fed “rosy scenarios” all the time.
They are not correct here, either.
Example the F-22 was slated to cost around 177 Million per aircraft. The final cost is over 339 million per aircraft.
In other words its all bunk!
Hmmm, the cover letter to the CBO report begins, “Once upon a time . . .”
I checked the deficit figure for Oct, Nov and Dec. The total is $378B. Annualized, FY 13 deficit will be higher than FY12. Also in every article, the monthly deficit exceeded last years number and exceed expectations.....
I checked the deficit figure for Oct, Nov and Dec. The total is $378B. Annualized, FY 13 deficit will be higher than FY12. Also in every article, the monthly deficit exceeded last years number and exceed expectations.....
The numbers for 2013 might not be too far off. We might not be too far under 1.4% growth. For 2014 forward, it’s comedy night.
That guy was way more credible and entertaining than Jay Carney.
This must be what it was like to live in the Soviet Union and read Pravda and Izvestia.
$24 TRILLION is the BEST scenario. That's something to get EXCITED about?
As a result of those factors, revenues are projected to grow from 15.8 percent of GDP in 2012 to 19.1 percent of GDP in 2015
So CBO assumes a 20.9% increase in revenues.
Was our recent tax increase 21%?
And will a 21% increase in tax rate necessarily translate to a 21% increase in tax revenue?
In addition, they assume a rise in income because of the growing economy when the economy contracted during Q4 2012.
Also from the CBO statement:
outlays are projected to decline from 22.8 percent of GDP in 2012 to 21.5 percent by 2017
Does anyone on FR really expect Federal outlays to decrease with Democrats and big gov't Republicans apparently in control of spending?
They might have been right. In January 2007, the deficit was around 165 billion, down from about 248 billion the previous year. Of course, something changed in January 2007, but I can't remember what that was.
Yes. Increasing spending, temporarily cut tax rates weighted to the lower income end. To this day lots of folks here refuse to admit it was folly.
After thorough assessment of the facts included in this article I’d have to conclude this is some serious and HEAVY BULL$HIT designed to be used to help keep the socialist show going.
The Democrats can argue we can afford higher taxes, we can afford single payer, we can afford more entitlements - and the deficit is shrinking!
In a center left country, its hard to beat Santa Claus.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.