Posted on 01/22/2013 11:01:18 AM PST by blam
The Worldwide Demographic Cliff Is Going To Be Brutal
The Economist
Jan. 22, 2013, 8:56 AM
THE post-war generation of baby boomers - those born between 1946 and 1964 - have had a huge appetite on the world, creating "youth culture", changing social attitudes from the sixties onwards, boosting economic growth as they entered the workforce and so on. Now they are starting to retire and this blog had banged on about the effect this will have on issues like pensions, asset markets and economic growth. not to worry, say some folk, since although we may have more elderly to look after, we will have fewer children.
Alas, that won't help, as this graph compiled by statistician Simon Hedlin shows. The total dependency ratio (children and retirees, compared with those of working age) fell in all G20/OECD nations bar Germany and Sweden between 1960 and 2010. In the next fifty years, it will rise in all those nations, bar India and South Africa. In most nations, the ratio will rise by 40% or more; there are huge increases in dependency in parts of Asia (China and South Korea) and in eastern Europe. Britain and America are towards the bottom of the table, but their problems are big enough.
There are many implications. With more dependents to care for, it is very hard to imagine how we will pay down our debts. And it is also very hard to imagine how one can possibly expect government spending to shrink significantly.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
I’ve had this same argument with conservative boomers on this site. They call themselves conservatives, but any mentioning of lowering or making any changes to social security and they will go ballistic. They’ve paid into the system for 50 years, so they want theirs.
Well, we’re going to pay into the system 40 or 50 years and we’re not going to get a dang thing.
That makes them selfish and certainly NOT conservative. And I’m going to remind of them of that at every turn.
I notice the one with the blue apron has a bedding foam roll...or is that rolls of toilet paper under her arm?
Matter of fact, it wouldn’t surprise me in 10 or 15 years from now Congress comes out and say, anyone born after 1965 or later, will receive no social security benefits. So plan accordingly.
What state was this in?
“What state was this in?”
Texas, but I also do a lot of work in Ohio, Oklahoma, and North Carolina. And I see it about the same everywhere.
Many of the younger people I work with almost seem to be waiting, as though something magic is going to happen and everybody will just reside in the land of milk and honey. No real need to worry about too much today.
Wish they’d let me in on when this is going to happen, because I don’t see any salvation ahead except through working harder and smarter.
Only reason I asked is it reminded me of a shop I worked in by Lake Travis doing some tech stuff.
Smart phones and texting has done something to their brains, I honestly am beginning to think. We’ve been blessed enough at my current company to grow through four or five pretty rough years in the local economy, and I can tell you we’ve had to let quite a few people go because they just absolutely cannot put the things down.
That, and those under thirty as a group seem to believe it’s OK to just not show up if there’s something more interesting to them going on elsewhere. These are sometimes degreed individuals. I know jobs of any kind are hard to find, that’s pretty much why I landed there. The work is detailed and varied, so boredom shouldn’t be a complaint. Pay is just so-so, not the best but certainly not the worst. It’s just the most amazing thing to me.
Really hate to bother you guys with the facts since you obviously have the world figured out, but -
Every year that a baby boomer turns 65, some number of boomers also DIE. And one day, the number of baby boomers turning 65 will be smaller than the number dying. But that won’t matter to you. No, your life will be getting worse and worse.
You see, while you’ve been running around crying about baby boomers, the real criminals were making off with your future.
If you’d like to get smarter, start here and download the .pdf mentioned.
Just in case you are too lazy, here’s a few tidbits:
“Under President Obama, government will spend more on welfare in a single year than President George W. Bush spent on the war in Iraq during his entire presidency. According to the Congressional Research Service, the cost of the Iraq war through the end of the Bush Administration was around $622 billion. By contrast, annual federal and state means-tested welfare spending will reach $888 billion in FY 2010. Federal welfare spending alone will equal $697 billion in that year.”
“Whereas Social Security and Medicare appear as two succinct line items in the federal budget1 and defense
spending appears on one line, federal welfare spending is spread through 13 government departments and agencies,
17 budget functions, and 71 separate programs. Spending levels for many programs can be discovered only
by data mining the annual 1,300-page budget appendix produced by the Office of Management and Budget
(OMB).2 Means-tested welfare also includes billions of dollars in mandatory state government contributions to
federal welfare programs. This spending never appears in any federal budget document. Because of this, the large
cost of aid to the poor is largely invisible to the press, decision makers, and the public.”
While you run your mouths off about people wanting get back what they paid into a system, the people that have never paid a dam dime into anything will be the cancer that eats you alive.
Enjoy your future.
That’s what I’ve been seeing myself. And I’m one of the young people. What are we to do? There’s not enough of us to carry the load.
“Enjoy your future”
I hear that. Talking with some of my age-similar coworkers, I said that we may be the first older generation that DOESN’T wish we were “30 years younger”. I would not want to be just starting out now.
Why is it selfish to want to keep what you earn, but it isn’t selfish to take someone else’s money away from them?
Real simple. Can you get a better ROI by keeping your money? Yes. Then there’s no need to pass it though the federal government so that they can pay for overhead on your dime.
[quote]The work is detailed and varied, so boredom shouldn’t be a complaint. Pay is just so-so, not the best but certainly not the worst.[/quote]
I think we discovered the problem.
What you should do is clear your mind of your boomers stole my lunch money obsession.
The entire economic system is about to crash over the entire world. Politicians from around the world have signed treaties that will make paupers of all of us. We are about to see famine and wars unlike the world has ever seen. Oboma and others have declared white Christian males and armed service vets who believe in the Bible and the Constitution are enemies of the people. Libs have all but declared war against half the population
and you are worried about what might happen in 20 to 30 years
Not when unemployment is 10% and there are few opportunities paying much at all. We don’t lack for applicants, have a steady stream of them.
Seems I recall your posting that you’re getting by on pretty low pay, yourself. Correct? These jobs pay more than that to my recollection.
Yes, but my present job is in line with my career goals and my desire to teach. My job offers me relevant experience in my field of study, something that I’ve never had until now. If I want more money, I can always supplement it with my own business.
It can and hopefully will open up more doors for me later on down the line.
What does your job offer? It sounds to me that you are picking up temps and then letting them go when you don’t need them anymore. Are you offering young people a career where they can have actual job security? Or are you offering a paycheck in exchange for work? There’s nothing wrong with that - I’ve had many, many jobs like that.
If you want to get young people to sign up for the job and stick with it you’ll have to offer one of several things.
1. Job security. If there’s a slowdown, am I going to have a job? Or am I going to be the first one dumped out the door. From what I can see, it sounds like the latter.
2. Opportunity for advancement. Does this job open up positions later on? Does it offer relevent work experience that is going to help obtain other positions?
3. Does the position offer a competitive pay structure compared with similar positions?
It seems to me, that you don’t offer one or two - so it comes down to three. Arguing that ‘just because the unemployment rate is X, we should only pay what is necessary to get butts in the seats, gets you exactly what you are getting - you’re getting the folks who can’t get work anywhere else.
And then you’re surprised that the folks you’ve got in your applicant pool aren’t the best and the brightest. This is simple math. You aren’t offering a high enough salary to attract the young people that you do want to work for you, and/or your HR people are simply not doing their jobs in getting those people out to work.
“and you are worried about what might happen in 20 to 30 years”
It’s happening now. We’ll start to see articles, probably in 5 years time showing that, oops, we were wrong, global population isn’t increasing, and then “where are we going to get all the people from”?
Thanks for the newbie HR tips and motivational poster pabulum, none of which has a thing to do with excessive texting and personal cell phone usage while on the job, let alone absenteeism without informing ones employer while still expecting to have a job.
It wouldn’t be tolerated in a minumum wage position with a fast food joint let alone an entry level position paying twice that. You want to teach? Having difficulty achieving that? Why? Going to supplement that by starting your own business? Really? I’ve started several. Do you have any greenhorn pointers for that, too?
Fast food treats it’s employees better than most. You get a shift - and you don’t get laid off and dumped just because you’re low man on the totem pole. Job security is something they offer that you don’t.
Crap pay = Crap employees.
Treat your young’uns like disposable tissue, and I’m not surprised they treat your job with the same disdain. :)
“You want to teach?”
This is my third year teaching.
“Having difficulty achieving that? Why?’
Because I don’t have 25 years experience like everyone else on the staff.
“Going to supplement that by starting your own business?”
I’ve been running my own for seven years now.
“Do you have any greenhorn pointers for that, too?”
Hey, I’m not the one coming on here and whining about the piss poor quality of employees that my business hired. Maybe HR should actually do it’s job in screening?
So you’re teaching and running a side business of seven years, knocking down $12,000 a year, and have the gall to give pointers to anyone else? The only employees who have been let go are the ones who cannot stop texting long enough to do their jobs or just don’t show up one day then turn up the next expecting to still have a job. I note you haven’t commented upon this behavior. I suspect that’s because it’s normal to you. That might explain a few things as far as your own situation.
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