Posted on 11/08/2012 7:32:38 AM PST by TonyInOhio
One of the more intriguing narratives for election 2012 was proposed by political scientist Brendan Nyhan fairly early on: that it was "Bizarro 2004."
~ SNIP ~
The Election Day returns actually continued the similarities. George W. Bush won by 2.4 percent of the popular vote, which is probably about what Obama’s victory margin will be once all the ballots are counted.
~ SNIP ~
But most importantly, the 2012 elections actually weren’t about a demographic explosion with non-white voters. Instead, they were about a large group of white voters not showing up.
~ SNIP ~
In other words, if our underlying assumption -- that there are 7 million votes outstanding -- is correct, then the African-American vote only increased by about 300,000 votes, or 0.2 percent, from 2008 to 2012. The Latino vote increased by a healthier 1.7 million votes, while the “other” category increased by about 470,000 votes.
This is nothing to sneeze at, but in terms of the effect on the electorate, it is dwarfed by the decline in the number of whites. Again, if our assumption about the total number of votes cast is correct, almost 7 million fewer whites voted in 2012 than in 2008. This isn’t readily explainable by demographic shifts either; although whites are declining as a share of the voting-age population, their raw numbers are not.). In other words, the reason this electorate looked so different from the 2008 electorate is almost entirely attributable to white voters staying home.
Put another way: The increased share of the minority vote as a percent of the total vote is not the result of a large increase in minorities in the numerator, it is a function of many fewer whites in the denominator.
(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.realclearpolitics.com ...
Romney bet that playing nice and running on conpetence would be enough, but bringing a knife to a gun fight leads to getting shot. He never respoded to Obama's attacks in kind, betting that playing nice would appeal to the mushy middle - he lost that bet.
This piece is long, but well worth the read if you want to understand the lessons of the election.
Without paper ballots you can never prove those votes existed or not
I read this earlier today and was going to post it.
The key factor was the Bain attacks in swing states. That kept blue collar types who were not at all keen on Obama home. They didn’t like Obama, but didn’t feel motivated to vote for Romney.
Down the road I’d really be curious to see what the change in turnout (2008-2012) was in blue collar areas that were targeted with those ads vs. areas that weren’t targeted.
It would not have made a difference in Mississippi... but out of 20 whites (random) that I have asked if they had voted... 8 said they were not registered... I asked why and a couple just said they hated politics but 6 of them said that they do not want to serve jury duty. Lazy pos parasites!
LLS
There should be a public record of everyone who cast a vote—though of course not which way they voted.
I have a hard time imagining seven million votes being disappeared and it not being found out.
A few hundred thousand in key states, however—that I could see.
My best guess is a share of the evangelical base staying home and orchestrated voter fraud on the part of the Dems in combination would solve the mystery.
Conservative knew very well what was at stake in this election so these after action results are sounding very implausible. I could understand a few apathetic and protest wonks staying home .... but 7 million??? ..... give me a break.
This is exactly my thought, and unfortunately the opposite of what the Republican establishment seems inclined to do next time. Obama did terribly compared to previous presidents reelections. Has a president ever won reelection with fewer votes before? This was the Republican's election to lose, and somehow, against all odds, they managed to do that. And I don't think that a brown Mitt Romney is going to be the Republican Party's salvation.
I’m going to guess it was a lot of Ron Paul voters. They didn’t like Obama. They didn’t like what happened at the convention and they said screw it and didn’t vote. Look at it like a hidden “Perot” vote that cost Bush against Clinton. There’s also a lot of people out there that think the system is broken and don’t think anyone can fix it. They’ve given up.
Anti-Mormons stayed home.
Aren’t all bad things in America the fault of whitey/crackers/neocons?
Perhaps this is the bitter fruit of those who refused to vote for Romney because he was not conservative enough, not enough better on abortion than Obama, or because they hate/distrust Mormonism.
We are screwed now with some deeply destructive Supreme Court appointments looming (I’m guessing a couple of red diaper babies in their forties), and a string of UN treaties which will cede our advantages, technology and wealth to Socialist and Islamist competitors. Only the Presidency and Senate are needed to enact these long term structural realignments. God only knows how they will use this opportunity to sabotage this country.
Shot self in foot.
I wonder if their was change in the Catholic and Jewish vote this election cycle? Did the Evangelicals sit this one out? I have not heard yet.
As a Newt supporter, I did not like how the Romney campaign carpetbombed him in Florida to get the nomination. That being said, I put that aside and still voted for Romney to at the very least - remove Obama. Unfortunately, Ron Paul voters don’t see it that way. It’s either their way or no way and it just might have cost Romney the election.
all you had to do was look at the totals on election night to realize our side did not come out to vote in numbers...thats why all this “Romney lost because of woman and latino’s” is BS- he lost because not enough white folks voted...
i am in agreement with you about the on the ground reports though most of the one i heard were from the morning- my only guess was people got to the polls early to avoid the evening rush...then again Virginia stopped counting because so many people were still on line when the polls closed...
After the first debate, which Romney won impressively, he went on cruise control.
He backed down in the 2nd debate when Crowley and Obama both jumped him about Obama’s timeline for calling Benghazi attacks terrorism.
He coasted through the 3rd debate, not wanting to make waves. He got lauded with praise for appearing presidential.
He tried, like McCain did, to take the high road to the White House. Meanwhile, Obama was throwing everything, including binders and Big Bird at him. The ‘small things’ won the day.
Then, there was that incumbency thing. Incumbency is hard to defeat. I recall the shock when Bill Clinton won reelection. I was similar stunned Tuesday night.
really, man?
you need to look at the ballots to know who voted? they use the cross off sheets to tell ya who voted. And how many. Did they cross yer name off the list when you voted on TUES?
“It’s not the people who vote that count. It’s the people who count the votes.” (attributed to Josef Stalin)
There are still millions of absentee and provisional ballots that have not been counted yet
Contemptible. Bastards ought to be taken out and bullwhipped. Now we’ve got Obama for another four years. Stupid mf’ers.
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