Posted on 11/08/2012 7:32:38 AM PST by TonyInOhio
One of the more intriguing narratives for election 2012 was proposed by political scientist Brendan Nyhan fairly early on: that it was "Bizarro 2004."
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The Election Day returns actually continued the similarities. George W. Bush won by 2.4 percent of the popular vote, which is probably about what Obama’s victory margin will be once all the ballots are counted.
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But most importantly, the 2012 elections actually weren’t about a demographic explosion with non-white voters. Instead, they were about a large group of white voters not showing up.
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In other words, if our underlying assumption -- that there are 7 million votes outstanding -- is correct, then the African-American vote only increased by about 300,000 votes, or 0.2 percent, from 2008 to 2012. The Latino vote increased by a healthier 1.7 million votes, while the “other” category increased by about 470,000 votes.
This is nothing to sneeze at, but in terms of the effect on the electorate, it is dwarfed by the decline in the number of whites. Again, if our assumption about the total number of votes cast is correct, almost 7 million fewer whites voted in 2012 than in 2008. This isn’t readily explainable by demographic shifts either; although whites are declining as a share of the voting-age population, their raw numbers are not.). In other words, the reason this electorate looked so different from the 2008 electorate is almost entirely attributable to white voters staying home.
Put another way: The increased share of the minority vote as a percent of the total vote is not the result of a large increase in minorities in the numerator, it is a function of many fewer whites in the denominator.
(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.realclearpolitics.com ...
The last several posts are all correct, but only in part.
Because it was all three.
Anti-Mormons, Ron Pauls and turned off repubs who have no enthusiasm for Romney.
That said, they were all very foolish. They made it possible for the worst president in history, a Muslim Islamic Marxist to seriously damage our future.
Fools.
325,000 ballots remain to be counted in your state
Those seven million VOTED. Their votes were deliberately lost.
Exactly. The paperless ballot machines (the modern solid state ones) can be rigged. There were and are reports of republican votes switching to dems as the ballot is cast. It may have never gotten counted at all. It could work in a predetermined ratio.
For example, for every 20 republican votes, one gets switched to the dems, one vote is dropped altogether. This type of fraud could explain why the votes are lower this year. Some votes were skimmed off.
If white voters sat out the election because they did not like Romney then they are as much to blame for Obamacare and all the other crap that will be flung at us.
agree with you 100%...Romney played prevent defense and prevent offense at the same time...left a lot of opportunity on the table during that 3rd debate...
Exactly.
Does it not occur to anyone that fraud could account for that?
In every state in the Union?
Wouldn’t that be difficult?
I think that it was more likely three major groups turned off, as I stated above.
There is a large group who despise Mormons. I ran into that on another thread.
It shows up regularly on FR.
And another interesting question:
Have you noticed that the Ron Pauls have almost disappeared from FR?
They have not changed their beliefs. They are determined. So why have we not heard from them for the past couple of months? Why are they not gloating today, telling us how right they are and how wrong we are?
I think that is something we are ignoring at our peril.
Oh gag.
Lose the martyr complex. Not one person I know even considered his Mormonism an issue.
Evangelicals stayed home, so yes you are correct.
Libertarian candidate Johnson got 2 million votes - the record number of Libertarian votes since the party was founded in 1972. They usually get 300-500K votes in a Presidential election. These votes would have given the election to Romney.
In which states did these white voters stay home? If they stayed home in Wyoming and Idaho, the point isn’t really consequential. If they stayed home in Virginia or Ohio, that’s a totally different matter.
“In every state in the Union?”
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No. Just the major battleground states. Especially those who don’t require photo ID or if you don’t have to sign anything when you vote.
They (the republicans) better do recounts and canvassing the precincts. In 526 people showed up at a precinct, there better be 526 votes. If that number is different and especially lower, they better look into that.
That claim has been made but I don't believe it for a minute.
My family certainly didn't and I know people at church who would have crawled over broken glass to vote, not to mention quite a number of Evangelical FReepers.
We knew what was at stake.
I think voter fraud had more to do with the election than anything but the GOP, wusses that they are, will not pursue it, while if the dems thought that there was voter fraud resulting in their loss, they'd be all over it like white on rice.
A fault the acceptance of the loss with the GOP for not pursuing it and pressing the issue.
Thank you.
Bill Cunningham (cincy talkshow host) was on Hannity around 3 p.m. the day of the election. He said he talked to Republican election officials at Butler County near Cincinnati (Republican stronghold) and the offical said she had never seen such a turnout. THEN THE VOTES UNDERPERFORMED. ALARM BELLS!!!!!!!!
I wonder in retrospect if Romney’s decision to stay mute on the attacks against Chick-fil-A caused some white voters to stay home. That was a golden opportunity for him to stand for religious liberty and remove some of the doubts Evangelicals had about him. Also, he said very little about Obamacare’s contraception mandate, which may have caused some devout Catholics to stay home.
There were other reasons he lost, of course, but these may have been contributing factors.
We need to go back to one day voting and paper ballots supplemented with a photo id requirement and 24hour indelible purple ink. We do not need or want any computer assistance in tabulating our votes. The old fashioned way may take longer but vote integrity is worth it. These remedies are simple and common sense but I’ll fall over in a faint if they are enacted any time soon. We should also require that all military ballots are counted before any others.
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