Posted on 11/06/2012 11:27:59 AM PST by goldstategop
RUSH: You know, that CNN poll yesterday that had it tied 49-49 with a Democrat-plus-11 sample? I looked at that poll.
And there is a piece of information in that poll that, if it is accurate, makes Dick Morris right on the money. It is a stunning, in fact, little-bitty piece of information that's tucked away in a chart that nine-out-of-ten, 99-out-of-a-hundred, 999-out-of-a-thousand people would gloss over and it is not even see. But if it's right? Whew! If it's right, folks, we're whistling Dixie here. I'll get to that in just a moment.
Again the questions: Do you think more Republicans will vote today than did in 2008 for John McCain? Do you think fewer Democrats will vote today than did for Obama in 2008? Fine. If the turnout, Republican turnout is like 2010, Romney wins big. If it's like 2004, Romney wins big. However, if the turnout today is like 2008, then Obama's gonna win. It's that simple. If the turnout's like 2008. Does anybody think that the turnout's gonna be 2008?
Yeah, the polls do. The polls all do. And, by the way, let me clarify something for you in these polls. Let's use CNN. CNN has a Democrat sample of plus 11. Many people misunderstand that CNN puts it together that way on purpose. That's not what happens. CNN is not deciding to interview 11% more Democrats than Republicans because they think that's what the turnout's gonna be.
CNN is just calling their sample. If it's 1200 people, they call 1200 people. And of that 1200 people, there were plus-11 Democrats in that sample. That's why they do it. It's not that they're orchestrating it. It's not that they're saying, "We want a sample of Democrat plus 11 so that's what we're gonna put together." That's what genuinely happens when they make their phone calls or do their interviews.
Then you add some things to it. Republicans don't usually talk to pollsters, particularly evangelicals. But that's why the polls believe what they believe. They are not assembling these samples. They're making their phone calls. Now, their sample, who knows what they know before they put it together, but I'm telling you.
They will tell you (and any other professional pollster will tell you, "No, no, no! We just called our 1200 people and it turned out today that we ended up with a Democrat sample of plus 11." Scott Rasmussen today, by the way, said, "I have no clue. I have no idea. I don't know what's gonna happen. First time in my career I have no idea."
Ed Goeas, the Battleground Poll. The last Battleground Poll has it Romney by a point and a half. That's about 1,200,000 votes. That's enough to win, plus the Electoral College. But there's this little thing in this CNN poll that I want to run by you. I don't want to make too big a deal of it because nobody has, but it's there. I mean, it's in their poll that everybody's touting as one of the polls that we should believe.
RUSH: Okay, let's look at this CNN poll from yesterday, which everybody touted. We talked about it, too. The CNN poll had it tied 49-49, and a Democrat sample of plus 11. And it also had Romney ahead of Obama in independents 59 to 37. Everybody talked about the that, and everybody was puzzled. They were scratching their heads. "What is this Democrat plus 11? Where you get that?" That's just how their sample turned out.
originalAnd Romney is ahead in independents by a large margin. But there's something else in this CNN poll that nobody talked about. I don't know. When I saw looked at it, I said, "This can't be right." Then I looked at everything else, and everything else adds up. Let me tell you what the CNN poll says on partisan preference, on who's gonna vote and how: 99% of the Republicans are gonna vote for Romney and 1% are gonna vote for Obama.
The independents: 59% are gonna vote for Romney, and 37% for Obama. Those numbers were all reported. But there's one more. According to CNN's poll yesterday, 5% of Democrats will vote for Romney and 93% will vote for Obama. So let's put it all together. Democrats plus 11, tied poll, 49-49, Romney wins independents 59-37. However, 99%...
This is what CNN says. This is the voting pattern in their poll: 99% of the Republicans voting for Romney; 5% of Democrats voting for Romney, and 59% of independents voting for Romney. That 5% of Democrats that CNN says is gonna vote for Romney, if that happens, this is all academic. By the way, does anybody know anybody who voted for McCain who's voting for Obama?
Do you know anybody who voted for Obama who may be voting for Romney? I know it's anecdotal, but I know a bunch of them. Anyway, this little number here is... I don't know what to make of this. But to me, if it's accurate... It's a part of the poll. It's one part of it that nobody mentioned. I don't know if anybody saw it or if they didn't give it any weight, but they reported the independent split. They reported the Democrat plus 11.
See, the Democrat plus 11 doesn't tell us how that Democrat sample's gonna vote. It's the internal in the CNN poll that tells you that. So a Democrat plus 11 sample, yeah, it sounds bad if all Democrats are gonna vote for Obama. But according to the CNN poll itself, 5% of Democrats today are voting for Romney, along with 99% of Republicans, and 59% of independents.
If that happens, no wonder Obama was crying last night in Iowa. Now, I am not predicting it, and I'm not saying bank on it. And none of this matters if you don't vote. None of the answers to my questions matter if you don't vote. This 5% Democrats voting for Romney doesn't matter if people don't vote. The 99% of Republicans voting for Romney doesn't matter if people don't vote.
This is a turnout election, and the best thing I can tell you is: Do not listen to anything anybody says from now on about exit polls, about fraud, about voting machines, about anything. Just vote, and take as many people with you as you can. Just vote! It's a turnout election, and it is voting that's going to determine the outcome. I know it sounds simple, but it's true.
The internals tell us 99% of Republicans will vote for Romney but get this - 5% of Democrats will cross over and vote for Romney!
Every vote matters and Rush is right - if people get out there and vote they can hand the Democrats the shock of their lives.
Every vote matters...So does YOURS!
My Democrat neighbors just went and voted for Romney and Connie Mack this morning. They are disgusted with Obama. The man has never voted before until today and he is 75 yoa.
CNN has it even with democrats oversampled by 11 points
when you add these #’s
over sampled democrats 11
democrats who will cross over and vote Repub 5
Republican represent 6 more than democrats 6
11 + 5 + 6...doesn’t that represent a 22 point victory for Romney? wt*?
I know three and possibly 4 who voted for Obama last time and have voted for Romney this time around. Is it a coincidence that they are small business owners?
Sounds like it should be a big win for Romney.
No wonder all this vote fraud is happening
I’m glad Rush talked about this because I’ve been talking about it myself. These stupid pundits on TV don’t even talk about the possibility of Dems voting outside the groupthink. I thought if Romney picked off 1 or 2% of the Dem vote that would be good, but 5%? A.W.E.S.O.M.E.
From this article, I take away the Rush does ot understand how primary research works.
After the data is collected, from the 1200 surveys, the pollsters then adjust the sample to what they believe is the true population proportion.
So if CNN thinks the turnout is going to be like 2008, they adjust (weight) the democrat, republican, and independent results to the “true” population proportion. This is done legitimately to remove sample bias from results. However, it can introduce “pollster bias.”
That is what is happening in 2012 - samples are being adjusted to reflect the turnout proportions of 2008. After doing this - *IF* they results are still tied for Obama, then Obama is toast. The bloom is off the rose for Obama. (On this point Rush has it right.)
Your math may be a little bit off.
Only 5% of Democrats are going to vote for Romney? That’s supposed to be impressive?
So 95% of Rats are going to stick with Bonzo.
Are we to believe that 100% of Republicans are going to vote for Romney? How naive is that?
In reality, there will proably be roughly the same % of crossovers both ways. You can find polls (even reputable ones) to document that. So take off that 5 from your equation.
Is R turnout really going to be +6? Not even the most delusional poll has R enthusiasm THAT high. +1 or +2, maybe.
11 percent oversample? Where is it written that there are exactly the same number of Ds and Rs in the USA? Maybe there really *are* more Democrats (no ‘maybe’ about it) — not 11% more, no way, but perhaps 5% more? Perhaps 7%?
If there really are 5% more D than R then a D+11 poll is “oversampling” not by 11% but by 6%. Still pretty bad.
So let’s say Mitt wins by 5 or 6 at most, not..... 22.
Even 5 or 6 sounds high, but as long as he wins by 1 in the electoral college that’s good enough.
Gallup and Rasmussen have both D’s and R’s losing about the same amount to the other side so Ras has a higher number. Rush shouldn’t be hanging his hat on this one. It’s all about the turnout and the early vote turnout is definitely trending away from a 2008 model.
Red State/Blue State
Does anyone know who came up with the Red State/Blue State designations for conservative/liberal states?
It has always seemed odd to me that conservative/Republican-leaning states are the ones called “Red” States, since “Red” is the color long associated with the Far Left, and that more closely approximates Democratic beiefs than Republican ones.
It seems to me that calling conservative states the “red” states is a deliberate attempt to blur the distinction between liberalism and Far Left ideas. Whoever came up with these designations did NOT want people to make the connection between liberalism and the Far Left.
Truth be known, it’s gonna be a lot more than 5%. Especially around here where Obama’s moves against coal and shale fracking could consign many of them to permanent unemployment.
I believe this. My dad is a registered Democrat who voted for Obama in 2008. He says now that it was the biggest mistake of his life and has already voted early for Romney.
I talked to a co-worker last night who told me he has voted in every Presidential election since 1976. He’s a registered Democrat who has always voted straight Democrat ticket. Never voted for a Republican for President. Until this year. He is voting for Romney today. I think there are a lot of Democrats out there like my dad and co-worker.
The preponderance of Benghazi evidence conclusively shows that Obama is a Coward. As a Coward, Obama is unfit to be the Commander in Chief of the US Military.
Obama’s strategic retreat to Las Vegas, Nevada the day after he authorized that 4 Americans were to be left behind to be murdered, has brought indelible shame to his office, and the Democrat Party.
As parents, who among us wants to send our sons and daughters to a US Military that has a Commander In Chief who is a Coward?
May the heros of Benghazi be proud of how we vote today.
They gave their lives for us, now we need to give our votes for them.
Vote as if the lives of our Military Men and Women depended on it.
My understanding of the ‘rat oversampling is that that is what their sample actually was. This just means that they didn’t get a good sample, probably because R’s don’t answer pollsters on the phone.
I believe this will be a big win for R/R - stopped off at Church on the way home from voting to light a candle and say some prayers for the outcome.
Please God they win and win BIG.
Wouldn’t it be poetic justice if Obama eeked out a narrow victory in Ohio through campaigning and political buyoffs but lost Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, New Hampshire - and maybe even Connecticut and/or Maryland? WOW...
I posted 6 months ago Romney will win PA...all my dem relatives are voting R. Just because dems voted early doesn’t mean they are for Obama, Rush. I sent him a letter and it was returned....wrong FLA address. 24 to 2 Romney signs driving to my old home in western PA
I posted 6 months ago Romney will win PA...all my dem relatives are voting R. Just because dems voted early doesn’t mean they are for Obama, Rush. I sent him a letter and it was returned....wrong FLA address. 24 to 2 Romney signs driving to my old home in western PA
No it wouldn’t because he (President Obama) isn’t going to win Ohio!
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