Rasmussen Daily: TUE 11/06: R:49 O:48 Obama -8%: GO VOTE!!

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/06/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

[SoftwareEngineer]

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

The final Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll of Election 2012 shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate. See daily tracking history.

Rasmussen Reports will continue tracking the president’s job approval rating and other topics, and new results will be updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).

Both candidates are viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide.

[Mrs.Liberty]

I want to thank you for your daily threads and analysis. The past two weeks, your thread has been the first thing I look for every morning (once I get to work! ;o) ).

[EagleClaw]

I voted early this morning in rural Virginia. The turnout looked about the same as ‘08 in this very conservative district. I was struck by two conversations with neighbors while waiting in line. I know both voted Obama in ‘08. One is switching their vote to Romney, the other not voting for either one. I also know my 86-year old mother, who is the definition of an independent, voted Obama in ‘08 but is voting Romney this time, but she would only whisper that to me and not say it out loud. I think there are many, many voters in Virginia who are very quietly switching their votes.

And former governor Doug Wilder declined to endorse Obama, because Obama did not kiss his ring. Wilder still has significant sway with black voters in this state, and his lack of support for Obama may make some difference.

I feel pretty good that Virginia will go for Romney.

[Linda Frances]

Anyone from Nebraska and has voter guide-additional info- on judges and amendments?

I kinda dropped out of politics- lost interest - but have to vote

[KevinDavis]

I’ll be glad when the concerned trolls leave this site until the next election...

[manc]

friggin rain from the central to north FL

[Kleon]

can Romney really lose if he’s up by 15 with indies?..doesn’t that pretty much tell you the mood the country?

No, he can't. Even Nate Silver said as much a few years ago that you can't win while trailing among independents. This is not going to be a close election.

[ilgipper]

I know those stories are anecdotal (the switching from Obama to Romney), but they seem to be very common. I fail to see how this race is going to go against us with so many people changing their minds. There will be almost literally no one who voted McCain in 2008 who stay home or go Obama, so it is a one way migration. Add that to high motivation on our side, and I feel like this should be a lock. As many have said the past couple days, everything feels like a decisive Romney win except the polls.

[SoftwareEngineer]

FINAL DAILY COMMENTARY BY ENGINEER (w/RAS INTERNALS)

The final numbers are in. R:49 O:48. This still includes the good SAT numbers for the President. They did not fall off yet

Let us break down the numbers:

• True number should have been R:50 O:48 but ONCE AGAIN the "Lean Romney" number is rounded down to zero
• Only 87% of Republicans are shown voting for the Governor. UNBELIEVABLE
• Rasmussen says 12% of Republicans will vote for the President. UNBELIEVABLE
• Right Track/Wrong Track Nationally is 44/53. Seems too high
• RT/WT for Asians and Hispanics is 47/50. Seems too high
• Governor leads Independents by 14
• The Governor trails women by 12. UNBELIEVABLE
• Approval Index is -22% for Independents. GOOD!
  
  Here are the RAW numbers using Scott's advertised D/R/I of 39/37/24
  
  Gov Romney: (12*0.39) + (87*0.37) + (52*0.24) = 49.35
  Pres Obama: (88*0.39) + (12*0.37) + (38*0.24) = 47.88
  
  Now, as I have said in my previous commentaries, I find the Republican voter number for the Governor (87%) unbelievable. Every other survey (including liberal ones) find the number to be near 95%. So, let us run the SAME numbers (above) with just one change i.e. assume that 95% of Republicans vote for the Governor
  
  Gov Romney: (12*0.39) + (95*0.37) + (52*0.24) = 52.31
  Pres Obama: (88*0.39) + (05*0.37) + (38*0.24) = 45.29
  
  So final tally: R:52 O:45
  If you throw 1% to "Other" and split the other 2% between the two then your final tally becomes:
  
  R:53 O:46
  
  FINAL THOUGHTS: In less than 12 hours it will become clear how right or wrong I was. Unlike Nate Silver, I do not claim powers of soothsaying or divinity. I am just an Engineer and my data is only as good as the input (Rasmussen's numbers) and my analysis (the best I can do)
  
  I truly appreciate the help everyone has given and I raise my toast in anticipation of a great victory by the Governor
  
  NOTE: Many numbers used here are internal and not available on the link above

[NautiNurse]

Heavy rain and t-storms in Tampa Bay, Florida. Steady stream of voters at the poll. No line outside the door at this hour. Poll greeter said there was a line at 6:30AM.

[Leto]

Great job by Ravi, LS, perdogg & SoftwareEngineer covering the polls. The commentary here is better than anything in the MSM.

It is hard to believe that Romney won’t win seeing the internals of these polls especially the near double digit lead among independents.

[SoftwareEngineer]

My final commentary ping:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2955659/posts#28

[Tennessean4Bush]

What were the “good” Sat numbers for Obama? 50-47, 51-46, 49-48?

[InterceptPoint]

Here are the RAW numbers using Scott's advertised D/R/I of 39/37/24

Why don't you re-run your calculation with the only change being D/R/I = 38/38/24?

[Arlis]

“friggin rain from the central to north FL”

That’s good. Dems will stay home, Repubs/conservatives will not let it stop them. Will increase the size of the win margin.

Born in FL, lived in Orlando & Gainesville (Naples, Miami, Miami Beach as well) but now a Virginian for 40 years....

[SoftwareEngineer]

Intercept,

That is actually quite easy. For each point you take off the Democrats and give to the Republicans in turnout, you would just have to add 1 point to the Gov and reduce 1 for the President

So, if we use the 87% Republicans for the Gov but with a D=R turnout, then the numbers would be R:50 O:47

However, if you use the 95% number for Republicans voting for the Gov, then the final would be R:54 O:45

Cheers!

[SomeCallMeTim]

The Governor trails women by 12. UNBELIEVABLE

THANKS A TON, SE, for all the daily posts and analysis. It's been very interesting to read.

This gender gap thing worries me too. Women make up a LOT more of the voting public these days... Seems hard to win an election if the group that votes the most, is voting for the OTHER guy.

Really... amazing dichotomy in this election. The MACRO issues scream R+4 turnout... HUGE Romney win. But, the MICRO factors seem to say "close win for Zero".

I guess... we'll find out today. I'll be watching Virginia and Philly, early

[therightliveswithus]

Let’s do this!!

[SoftwareEngineer]

T4Bush,

By my back of the hand calculation, SAT was a R:49 O:49 day. So it was still quite good for the President although not as good as THU, which (by my calculation) was R:47 O:50

[SoftwareEngineer]

Mrs. Liberty,

That is very kind of you. It has been an honor.

Let us hope for the best

Cheers!

Engineer

[Graewoulf]

“We cannot expect the Americans to jump from Capitalism to Communism, but we can assist their elected leaders in giving Americans small doses of Socialism until they suddenly awake to find they have Communism.”
- Soviet Leader Nikita Khrushchev, 1959.