Posted on 11/05/2012 10:11:15 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
GALLUP: R 49% O 48%
(Excerpt) Read more at DrudgeReport.com ...
It was Christie’s over the top effusive praise of Obama that made the difference. He practically endorsed him.
That lead to the inevitable “former Obama critic praises his leadership” headlines that dominated the news for a weekend.
If Romney does lose this, Chris Christie is the primary reason why. Just the latest in a long series of GOP backstabbers.
Has Caddel commented yet?
In addition to the oversampling of democrats, many of these last polls are being conducted over the WEEKEND and that typically undercount republicans.
This supposed Sandy bounce reveals one of two things, either people are really stupid and gullible, or polls are pure garbage.
So many things to say about this poll:
1. Obama gets his 47%, but then an extra 1% from the squishy middle that saw Christie praising Obama. This is a tracking poll that STARTED during the height of Christie’s praise - it’s already fairly outdated.
2. Challenger is up 1 point over the incumbent the day before the election. That’s wonderful news for us!
3. Even insane Nate Silver says that if Romney wins the popular vote by 1% or more he will likely when the EC as well.
Of course, you mean... "Put his arm BEHIND Chris Christie"??
Not even Obama has arms THAT long!
R -2 and O +2 from the Gallup’s last released poll. That’s within the poll’s MoE. Unfortunately, we have no idea of the trend over the last week, so there’s no context. My guess is that, like Rasmussen, O tied R for a few days, but never had the lead. Gallup’s reputation is on the line.
I predicted ‘SHENANIGANS” from Gallup , I am on record here a couple times in the days they stopped until now.
I also do NOT buy that folks saw Obama as Presidential,at least NOT on their own, idiots like Steve Hayes fed the line that Obama looked Presidential, just a line from the media that may have become reality in a few mindless folks
I predicted ‘SHENANIGANS” from Gallup , I am on record here a couple times in the days they stopped until now.
I also do NOT buy that folks saw Obama as Presidential,at least NOT on their own, idiots like Steve Hayes fed the line that Obama looked Presidential, just a line from the media that may have become reality in a few mindless folks
How do they now explain being in line with the other MSM pollsters, when up until now were on their own or thereabouts?
I know the answer
In 2004 Gallup predicted a dead even race, 49-49. Bush prevailed by 2.4 points.
Their poll of decided voters actually showed a 2 percent gap 49-47 for Bush. But then they went ahead and assigned 90% of the undecided voters to Kerry on the theory that the undecided always favor the challenger. In fact, the undecided broke mildly for Bush.
How did they treat the undecided now? Anyone knows?
GEEK/ENGINEER BUMP!
This is a registered voter !
Gallup did not issue the likely voter poll which had
Romney up by 4 or 5 pts
It’s a different poll completely !
WHY !
This poll is Registered and not a Likely voter poll previously posted on Drudge !
Reg voters are always a way larger Dem
Sample !
Gallup is playing a fast one !
Where is there likely voter poll ???
Good point on the RV vs LV!! Took 74 posts to get to it but I’m glad I kept reading. As for the Ras party ID #’s, they are for October and unfortunately don’t reflect any of the supposed Sandy bounce. Sounds ridiculous that a storm can sway such a thing but you see huge swings based on less.
I’ve been posting every negative story about Sandy I can find on FB in hopes they will filter their way into the minds of a couple of those mushy brained undecideds.
summars I think you nailed it. Gallup was the one polling company sticking its neck out and predicting a big Romney win while others were calling it essentially a tie. Most of the others are still calling it a tie but suddenly Gallup’s big Romney lead disappears. I think Gallup is hedging its bets. If Romney’s Gallup support collapsed so suddenly all the other polls would now be showing a sizeable Obama lead. Gallup still can claim accuracy if Romney takes up to 53% based on the margin of error, or if Obama steals it with a close result.
Umm... I thought it was a good point but looks like Gallup’s RV # is O49 R46.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx
R49 O48 is the LV poll.
Gallup has 96% of Republicans for Romney and 93% behind Obama. I don’t believe that 93% for a second. There is easily 10-15% of Democrats, especially in swing states who are either not voting or going Romney. Obama has spent the month convincing his fringe base not to bail, but didn’t do anything for the Reagan Democrat to keep him/her on board. Not every Democrat is a loon looking for ‘revenge’.
LV is 50 rom and 49 0
Just released
I thought Gallup didn’t weight their polls? Maybe I read wrong.
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