Posted on 11/05/2012 9:22:53 AM PST by nhwingut
Oct 2012: Republican: 39.1% Democrat: 33.3% Other: 27.5% (R+5.8%)
Sep 2012: Republican: 36.8% Democrat: 34.2% Other: 29.0% (R+2.6%)
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Is Ras going to release November?
CEOs are the last people you want to rely on for how things are going.
CEO contact with real people is minimal. They drive by the common folk’s middle class homes in their chauffered limos on their way to the executive suite where they will be surrounded suck-up yes-men.
Their outside contacts are limited K-Street lawyers and lobbyists who are fighting to get them tax breaks and corporate welfare. For that, Obama is a great guy.
They are as sheltered and narrow-minded as the pundits and media types who only talk to each other and their politician friends.
Yes, they are different. The trouble most of us are having with the pollsters is this: Self-identifying Republicans outnumber Democrats by five or ten percent. Generally, voter intensity is said to be favoring Republicans by about ten percent. That means the Republican advantage will be GREATER. Generally, pollsters are saying independents favor Romney by about ten percent. Romney’s advantage should grow, again. Yet, they are just about all saying the race is tied. Something does not add up.
Nevermind, this is as of October 31. Hmmmm...why is he not reflecting this in his polls?
From business perspective, it is always better to be wrong when all your competitors are wrong, than to be wrong when all your competitors are right. Rasumssen sees the competitive landscape and decides to call it similarly to everyone else, so that if they’re all wrong, he doesn’t get singled out.
My guess is that, among other things, other pollsters saw the way Axelrod put the arm on Gallup (for which he should swing) and are trying to avoid a similar experience. They particularly don’t want to be seen as “favoring” Romney while Obama is throwing his post-election tantrum and looking for people to blame for his loss.
Oh. Well. I guess that settles it then./sarc.
So basically they are saying they are stealing the election.
Buried in one of Nate Silvers recent articles is this gem:
Mr. Romney would not be in much danger of losing the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by more than about 1.5 percentage points. For example, he would be about a 95 percent favorite in the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by two percentage points, according to the forecast model.
But with national polls now showing a slight edge for Mr. Obama, these outcomes have become less likely. If Mr. Romney wins the popular vote, it may be only barely, and that might not be enough for him to win the Electoral College.
[ Kind of odd that Ras didn’t link this on his homepage. ]
I thought so too. He usually does!
That’s what I thought. I just got the impression that some people up thread were confusing the two. Just because someone identiufies as something doesn’t mean they are going to vote. It’s only important when seen through the lense of how likely people that identify with a particular group will vote. Correct?
Networks fear loss of revenue if the election is called early, and people head to bed...
That's discouraging, but iirc it was noticeably higher v. McLame. We also have X amount of "don't-call-me-racist" response.
None of this late swing to R's has any relevance upon this 12%. I's, nor D's would change party affiliation to Republican to vote for Obie.
I wish Rasmussen would answer that question.
The reason polls run so heavily Democrat is to account for voter fraud.
So why the heck is he using D+2 in his turnout model?
ROTFLMAOPIMP...'math is hard, indeed!'
Well IF this is correct Romney will win by double digits. When you aggregate all the national polls (which include 30k+ respondents) the numbers break as follows:
Dems: O 91.2%, R 7.6%, U/O 1.2%
Reps: O4.7%, R 94.5%, U/O 0.8%
Indies: 0 38.1%, R 47.7%, U/O 14.2%
If we allocate 6% of the indies to the third party candidates, Have the undecided breal 70/30 to Romney, and apply the Ras party affiliation model the election would turn out as follows:
Romney 54.7%
Obama 43.6%
Third party 1.7%
This sort of total blowout would of course have some other benefits, The Senate races would break R, and the Lib lackey’s in the MSM would be totally discredited.
Amazed that Ras is using a +3% D model in his samples.
Too bad his polls are not showing that republican swing. He still has a 3 or 4 % dem skew
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