Posted on 11/05/2012 9:22:53 AM PST by nhwingut
Oct 2012: Republican: 39.1% Democrat: 33.3% Other: 27.5% (R+5.8%)
Sep 2012: Republican: 36.8% Democrat: 34.2% Other: 29.0% (R+2.6%)
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
The pollsters are going to have some explaining to do tomorrow night after Romney wins big. This is hugh and series.
And with Republicans traditional higher % of voting participation, the “polls” still oversample Dems . . . makes no statistical sense at all
I’m praying for a 1980, redux
WHOA!!!! And cometh the WILD CARD!
Yet Charlie Gasperino (SP?) from Fox business just said every CEO he has talked two over the last couple days are telling him it’s going to be Obama. He is not there choice just what the insiders are saying. Supposedly Axelrod told some connected folks that it is baked in, it’s a done deal 100% guaranteed.
All I can say is get out and vote, and audit those electronic vote counting machines.
reince Priebus was just on locally with Charlie Sykes.
He expects Mitt Romney to be giving his victory speech by the 10PM CST newscast.
OK, Rep self ID +6, so WHY does Rasmussen have the race Romney +1 if it was Obama winning by 6 in 2008 with a Dem +6?
The number of people with landlines (and caller ID) are not answering phones (I haven’t).
Many more households are using iPhones or other mobiles as their principle phones.
Therefore, the data are suspect: GIGO (gargage in, garbage out).
I don’t trust any of it, but do feel the “MO” moving in a direction other than towards the Admin.
F
I have a question. I think maybe I’m not understanding this properly. Isn’t party ID how people describe their affiliation when asked, and a +whatever in the polls an assumption about the turnout advantage. They’re different aren’t they?
And most of them stopped watching network news....
And most of them stopped watching network news....
And most of them stopped watching network news....
Kind of odd that Ras didn’t link this on his homepage.
Because this is not Rasmussen’s party affiliation base that he starts with. This is his recent polling that he adjusts his base party affiliation with.
I think his base is either Dem+3 or Dem+5, depending on which freeper you’re talking to.
He then uses a formula internal to his own organization to adjust that base, and presumably, this party affiliation polling is part of what gets factored in.
Additionally, on today’s Rasmussen 49/48 thread posted by Software Engineer, he points out that Rasmussen says 12% of Republicans claim they are voting for Obama.
So, if you take 88% of 39% you get 34% of these republicans actually voting for Romney. On Romney’s side, however, is that independents favor him over Obama.
I’m an Ohioan, and my gut says Romney’s doing much better than John Glen did. I see Romney winning Ohio by a safe margin, assuming no vote fraud. I also see him winning Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Iowa.
My gut says Romney wins barring vote fraud.
So HIS presidential tracking poll reflects an electorate 7.8% MORE Democrat than his own extensive electorate surveys show?
That would be yes and another yes and yes again. :-)
I believe Rasmussen will use this “new data” to change the weighting for his final poll tomorrow morning. He’s waited for the other pollsters to call it a tie in their final polls. He will release his final poll and be the only one to be correct.
This is GREAT NEWS!!! This will be just like 2010..I am NOT going to listen to the fear porn coming from the likes of Fox News or Fox Business Network anymore..after seeing this, its just like 2010 and we are going to win!!
Blowout!!
So explain to me how his poll today only had Romney up by 1?
Ras probably underestimated the weighting for Pubbies.
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