PPP: Obama leads in Ohio(+5) and Virginia(+4) (Also Obama up +2 in Iowa, N.H.)

PPP ^ | 11-4-12 | PublicPolicyPolling

[tcrlaf]

PPP's final polls in Ohio and Virginia find Barack Obama ahead in both states, 52/47 in Ohio and 51/47 in Virginia. PPP has conducted four polls in each of these states over the last three weeks and has found an average lead of 3.75 points for Obama in Ohio and an average advantage of 3.5 points for him in Virginia.

In Ohio Obama's already built up a large lead during the early voting period. He's up 60/39 with those who already cast their ballots. Romney's ahead 51/48 with people who plan to vote on election day but he's going to need a much wider margin than that to take the state.

Obama's winning thanks to leads of 54/44 with women, 86/11 with African Americans, and 61/33 with voters under 30. And although he trails Romney with independents (49/47) and white voters (51/47), he's holding Romney to margins well below what he would need to win those groups.

It's a similar story in Virginia. Obama's up 56/43 with women and 92/8 with African Americans and he's holding Romney to a 58/40 advantage with whites, which is below what we've generally been finding for him nationally recently. When you combine Obama's relative strength among white voters with Virginia being one of the more racially diverse states in the country it's the formula for a lead.

Democrats are also well positioned to win the US Senate races in each of these states. Tim Kaine leads George Allen 52/46 in Virginia's open seat race and Sherrod Brown's up 54/44 for reelection against Josh Mandel. It's a similar story in both states. Voters like the Democratic candidates- Brown has a 48/43 approval rating and Kaine has a 50/40 favorability rating. They don't much care for the Republican contenders- Mandel's favorability is 36/50, Allen's is 42/48.

[eddie willers]

In Ohio Obama's already built up a large lead during the early voting period

Those votes have not actually been counted, just assumed because the voter was a registered Democrat.

How many of those "registered Democrats" voted for Obama? Who knows, but I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a few go Romney....just like when there were "Reagan Democrats".

[max americana]

PPP is a Democrap polling group, nuff said.

[trappedincanuckistan]

Let’s assume they are all for Obama. Although he leads he is way off his 2008 total which indicates Democrat turnout is going to be way lower than all these polls are assuming.

[tallyhoe]

PPP is a democratic pollster with no credence! This poll is laughable over!!!

[Mouton]

If 2012 is lost, there will be no 2016.

[princeofdarkness]

That CNN poll had a 22-pt advantage of Indies for Romney. That’s Reagan-Carter landslide territory. No incumbent (or challenger) has ever won with a deficit of -22 independents.
It is a statistical near impossibility.

I now can safely say with 100% confidence that Romney will win this going away 54%-45% withe 390+ EV.

[Hetty_Fauxvert]

I’m headed to the Columbus rally tomorrow (from Dayton).

* * *

Please give us an after-action report! With pics!

(P.S. I’m so jealous! ;o)

[Jeff Head]

This is more hogwash and attempts to supress the conservative vote. But it will not workl.

Gallup predicted a +3 GOP turnout today for Tuesday.

This is huge and is being ignored by the MSM.

All of the polls predicting an Obama lead are based on something close to a +7% Dem model. This means a shift of over 10% in the model if Gallup is correct.

This means a Romney win, and a big one if it is true.

Notice that Obama is not polling over 50% almost anywhere where the battle will be won. I believe Romney is going to take all of those states...and events like the 30K rallies in Ohio and Pennsylvania just underscore that.

I believe Dick Morris is going to be proven correct from the get go on this one and the pther pollsters, except for a few like Gallup and Rasmussen that have been tracking more towards Romney of late, will have egg on their face.

The are cooking the numbers by using a 2008 model that is not going to happen.

Just like the polls showed Reagan losing to Carter, but then winning handly, I believe (and pray) we are going to see a repeat of that.

So, in the spirit of II Chron 7:14, entreat God in Heaven, repent, fast and pray so that He will help us Heal our land, as He promises.

Let’s keep working HARD right to the finish line...push right on through! Then, on Tuesday, let’s all Fast, Pray, and VOTE for our Constitutional Republic and to STAND OBAMA DOWN! Please join our event to that end, doing so from our own homes or wherever you may be at:

http://www.facebook.com/bebraveforamericanov6th

[clearcarbon]

PPP - polsters popping pills

[Anti-Hillary]

Internals

Ohio = D+8

Virginia = D+6

Obama won Virginia by 6% in 2008...

What say you?

Also Virginia: Obama Approve/Dis 47/49
Romney Like/Dislike 49/47

Also shows Romney up +2 with Indies....

[GVnana]

This is the poll that Dick Morris ripped apart on Greta vanSusteren.

Strange to see Dick Morris and Michael Barone out on the same limb, but there they are predicting a Romney landslide...

[Anti-Hillary]

Also, if I am reading the internals right in VA, it shows that 12% of their self-identified R’s are voting for Obama...

And correction VA is +5 in this poll

[Cincinna]

Thank you Chris Christie!
If Obama does win, God forbid, you will have a lot to answer for.

[MaxMax]

In 2004 they had Kerry walking away with the election days before the election.
I was watching the results at a VFW in KY surrounded by diehard union Dems and
they were lambasting me about losing. They just didn't quit until the real results started
showing up on CNN and everyone in the bar got really quiet fast. I didn't rub it in because
I didn't need to. The hangover for them came before closing time.

We shall see Tuesday night. And with all the Dem voting cheaters being reported
the MSM will still cry stolen by Repubs because their predictions said otherwise.

Happy Hangover, Rats..

[Humble Servant]

Kickin’ or lickin’?

[des]

Bingo.

[BooBoo1000]

This is pure old D Bull $^*(/ contact me Wednesday morning for the wrap up/

[nickcarraway]

Romney will win in 2012. Bu lost to conservatives yet.

[nickcarraway]

Let me guess. You are still upset that Mondale won the presidency in 1984?

[Varsity Flight]

Very wise plan, have to agree with you.

And I wonder how many of these GOP “landsliders” posting, will disappear in here, after Tuesday.