Posted on 11/04/2012 7:09:03 PM PST by tcrlaf
PPP's final polls in Ohio and Virginia find Barack Obama ahead in both states, 52/47 in Ohio and 51/47 in Virginia. PPP has conducted four polls in each of these states over the last three weeks and has found an average lead of 3.75 points for Obama in Ohio and an average advantage of 3.5 points for him in Virginia.
In Ohio Obama's already built up a large lead during the early voting period. He's up 60/39 with those who already cast their ballots. Romney's ahead 51/48 with people who plan to vote on election day but he's going to need a much wider margin than that to take the state.
Obama's winning thanks to leads of 54/44 with women, 86/11 with African Americans, and 61/33 with voters under 30. And although he trails Romney with independents (49/47) and white voters (51/47), he's holding Romney to margins well below what he would need to win those groups.
It's a similar story in Virginia. Obama's up 56/43 with women and 92/8 with African Americans and he's holding Romney to a 58/40 advantage with whites, which is below what we've generally been finding for him nationally recently. When you combine Obama's relative strength among white voters with Virginia being one of the more racially diverse states in the country it's the formula for a lead.
Democrats are also well positioned to win the US Senate races in each of these states. Tim Kaine leads George Allen 52/46 in Virginia's open seat race and Sherrod Brown's up 54/44 for reelection against Josh Mandel. It's a similar story in both states. Voters like the Democratic candidates- Brown has a 48/43 approval rating and Kaine has a 50/40 favorability rating. They don't much care for the Republican contenders- Mandel's favorability is 36/50, Allen's is 42/48.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
Unless it’s a propoganda arm of a party or cause a political polling firm’s main purpose would be making money.If such a firm is wildly inaccurate one would think it would cut into profits...unless,perhaps,they know that they have a built in customer base.Or maybe the “real* money is made doing the “internal” polls that the general public never sees.
6 Point spread between Rasmussen, and PPP, in both Ohio and Virginia.
Two days out from the election.
Someone is off. WAY OFF...
The question that MUST be asked after the election, is WHY?
If all of these polls are correct, this will be nearly as big a blowout as McCain suffered. Does anyone actually believe that?!!? I just can’t see it. If so, our only hope going forward would be to scrap the GOP and infiltrate and moderatize and split the Democrat party.
It’s not the percentage of blacks Obama gets, but how many show up to vote. Hate to sound cliche, but it’s ALL ABOUT TURNOUT. Dem voting in Ohio in 2008 was down from 2004. We lost because the bottom fell out of GOP participation.
The poll is good news in VA and Ohio, PPP Democrat Poll, always review the internals. In both state -2 view of Obama +2 on Romney. Sampling way off. I am at the point I think Ohio is safer than VA which I had felt good about for some time. Bottom line, these polls and CNN are all positive indicators. Again look where the candidates are. Heck PA has to be looking good if Dems are sending Clinton back for four stops. Think about it NOT OBAMA , Clinton, because he is more popular their than Obama
CNN just released a ridiculous D+11 poll.
The sub-sample of blacks in Ohio and Virginia isn't going to be large enough (maybe 130-or-so each) for the difference to be statistically significant.
2012 is lost, 2016 anyone?
Ugh Not TRUE they had Walker winning their last poll:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/06/walker-leads-by-3-points.html
How come everyone here keeps repeating that falsehood that all the polls had Walker losing or “too close to call” when all the polls I’ve looked at had it right with the recall, yes even PPP.
Over the summer PPP missed the Walker recall by 4 points. They also published a poll saying majority of North Carolinians supported gay marriage about 2 weeks AFTER “traditional” marriage won at the (actual) polls in a huge way.
Oh shut it.
Not the questions, the sampling. PPP is a Democrat polling firm and they are taking way too many D samples. Rass puts a more realistic model. If you ran the same sample of D/R/I these polls wouldn’t vary by much.
Yep they sure did..with Indies going to Romney +22..if thats true then ADIOS OBAMA
What I see is a lot of posturing on both sides and a lot of wishful thinking. Both sides declaring landslides. It has really gotten ridiculous.
He won by 7. so they were -4 on Walker, apply that here (+4 Romney -4 Obama_ that is a solid Romney win. Also there were sites that had it +1 or +2 either way right before wisconsin election.
I thought Obama was toast awhile ago (based on a number of things including the polls oversampling Democrats to keep Obama afloat).
It’s in the bag.
Dems aren’t as motivated, more of them have switched. VERY few Repubs(hah!) have switched.
Independents breaking 2 or 3 to 1.
Buddy of mine in Missouri took a first time voter, and 2 80-year old life-long dems to the polls yesterday to vote for Romney and oh yes, Todd Akin.
Akin wins Missouri- my prediction.
Romney sweeps, and we take the Senate. Breath deep, sleep well and vote Tuesday!
I also want to add that those ties are probably cya for Ras, those states that are ties will become decisive wins.
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