Posted on 11/04/2012 2:02:44 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Michael Barone, a senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner and co-author of the Almanac of American Politics, goes out on a limb and predicts victory for Mitt Romney – by a margin of nearly 100 electoral votes.
Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.
But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick.
Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.
That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting -- and about their candidate -- than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so…
Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.
In Barone’s estimation, Romney essentially sweeps the swing states, with the exception of Nevada, and even picks up Pennsylvania.
Michael’s views have drifted rightward over the years and he's become a prominent conservative voice,
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
It is all about turnout.
Yes. GOTV.
I hope its a landslide for Mitt even though I “officially” say he gets 296 EV’s
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2954764/posts
Dear Lord make it so!!!
I feel better....back later!
That is right. NO CHICKEN COUNTING!! Play like you are down to your last strike!
Despite the polling in Senate races, does a Romney victory help the chances that we may also have a chance to win the Senate?
Enthusiasm on the right should mean decent coattails for Republican candidates down-ballot. Fingers crossed we get a lot of people voting straight “R” ticket as a middle finger gesture to the Marxists on the left, regardless of what they think of each individual Republican candidate. If the R candidate sucks, boot them in the mid-term. Better yet, primary them in the mid-term.
I'll take it, but I love to have Romney win by at least 100 EV.
Barone is a guy I trust, so this is encouraging, but I personally don’t see a Romney electoral blowout.
I do think Romney can still pull off a close win. To do so, he needs to take at least 90 EVs from Obama.
I feel very confident in him taking IN, NC, and FL from Obama’s tally last time. That adds 55 EVs for Romney.
I also feel good about both VA and CO. That adds 22 more, and means Romney needs 13 more EVs to win.
The easiest path is through Ohio, and while most every poll shows Obama with a lead, my gut feel is that Romney wins a close one here and thus wins the election. That would provide a margin of 275 - 263.
Next most likely to fall to us are WI and NH. Get them both and we add 14 more giving Romney 289 - 249.
That, IMO, is the best we are going to do on Tuesday. Would love to be wrong and see states like PA, NV, and MI go our way as well, but the RAT presence is deep there, and they are going to get their vote out at a pretty good rate.
Still, I would be thrilled with 275 EVs. Getting there all comes down to Ohio.
Don’t let us down Buckeyes!!!!!
That was true up until well after Ryan was chosen. It may be a reason Rasmussen does not show Mitt getting all the repulican vote.
Jim hasn’t dumped me yet.. nor have I seen any evidence of suppressing the Pro Romney threads..
We all know what Jim thinks, by his own words, and he still provides us with a invitation to use his website.. Thanks again Jim, for this opportunity.. Carlo
That story is over a year old now. Things have changed significantly.
Exactly!
I hate to overemphasize the similarities, but this feels so much like 1980. In that contest, Reagan swept in a R Senate majority for the first time in eons. It held for 6 years and has gone back and forth ever since. Before 1980 it had become pretty inconceivable to have a R Senate majority.
Interesting, what you said.
I wonder if there are any states not yet leaning Romney but with a Republican candidate for Senate or House that’s attracting republican voters to the polls who will also vote for Romney while they’re there.
Then we have local issues in some states such as gay marriage...etc.
I haven’t followed the Senate races this year as I have in the past so I don’t know of any situation where the R Senatorial candidate is running ahead of Romney.
On one of the MN threads there was reference to two issues on the ballot there beyond POTUS, one was gay marriage and I’m drawing a blank on the other. That would be bringing out more conservative “values voters.” Not sure I believe there’s much hope for MN but ya never know.
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