[AU72]

Nate Silver gives it to Romney if the turnout is R+1.

[Perdogg]

ping

[E. Pluribus Unum]

This is what R+3 looks like:

[pgkdan]

Great analysis m. Aligns perfectly with my thinking!

[Puckster]

“Gallup reviewed all of its interviews with “likely voters” conducted since October 1.”

As the Gallup turns.....the new soap opera.

As stated my my self and others, Romney has always led.

It is Gallup’s time to protect its integrity (laugh track) as the election draws nigh.

How clever “reviewed” is as a segue to retention of integrity.

[M1911A1]

The confidence in an Obama victory over at DU is unshakable.

I’m no Romney fan, but the pleasure of helping to make heads explode over there won him my vote.

Here’s to a conservative House and Senate to keep Mitt on the straight and narrow!

[onyx]

Read the last two paragraphs at the link!!!!

Correcting these polls so that there was a Republican edge in the sample of voters consistent with Gallup’s finding would hand Romney a lead between five to ten points.

Imagine the run on smelling salts at Mother Jones and MSNBC if that were to happen?

VOTE AND KEEP PRAYING!

[Repeal 16-17]

The Liberal Messiah is tied in national polls that are D+3. If more Republicans outvote Democrats nationally, Romney should be in good shape.

[Sylvester McMonkey McBean]

[Leto]

To expand on my earlier post, if Gallup is predicting a R +3% turnout model.

If this is true (R +3%). Then Romney will win by 9%

Looking at the raw data over at:Rebalanced Presidential Election Polls 2012

The samples of all the national polls include 30,000 voters. This is a huge sample size so the margin of error should be very small.

Looking across the %’s across the 30,000 raw numbers polled we see the following:

Obama leading among dems, 91.15%, 7.62%, Other/Undecided 1.23%

Romney leading among R’s, 94.47%, 4.74%, Other/Undecided .79%

Romney leading among Indies: 47.40%, 38.13%. Other/Undecided 14.16%

So we see the following Romney is leading among crossover voters by 2.88% and he is leading among Independents by 9.57%

I make the following assumptions to simplify. Independents will comprise 30% of the total vote. Among the 14.16% of undecided independents 6% will go to third party candidates.

The rest of the independents will break towards the challenger by a 70/30% ratio (a little under the historical norm.

If the turnout model is +3% R as per Gallup Romney wins 54.1% to 45.1%.

It is reminiscent of the 2006 & 2008 here they dems won big in the midterm then had and even bigger in the following election.