Well, there is one...
Posted on 11/04/2012 7:10:54 AM PST by Arec Barrwin
1. Here are the 2008 early vote totals from the early voting project at George Mason
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
2. Download the Excel Spreadsheet on Early Voting from OH SOS
http://www.sos.state.oh.us/SOS/Upload/news/2012/Early_Voting_Report_2012-11-02.xls
3. You will notice that OH early voting is just like VA early voting. Cuyahoga and Summit are 2 of the top 4 Democratic counties. Cuyahoga is at 95% of 2008 totals and Summit just about the same at 100% of 2008 totals. On average across the state, about a 2-3% decline in Democratic counties.
4. But look at the Republican counties. They are little by themselves but they add up. Union County had 3324 total EV in 2008 and has 7500 in now. Tuscarawas had 9339 in 2008 and 16000 now. Muskingum had 6629 in 2008 but 11900 now. You can find similar results in EVERY single Republican stronghold.
Cuyahoga in 2008 was almost the same as 2004. The difference in Ohio from 2008 to 2012 was the massive dropoff in support for McCain from Republican and swing counties. The (R) enthusiasm is not only back, but it is stronger than ever before.
Why more people aren't doing this kind of analysis is beyond me. Just look at the EV totals released by the states and you can see what is happening.
If I'm reading the numbers wrong, please tell me. But it seems that the OH and VA numbers by county tell the tale -- small decreases in the Democratic areas but huge increases in Republican areas.
But I can run an analysis, and did so on absentees only (not early votes). I can't post because of formatting. If someone can post a Word document, I'm happy to send you what SoftwareEngineer put some of it in Excel, but only did 10, and this does not include Cuyahoga or Franklin).
Conclusions of my mini-study:
*I looked at the first 27 OH counties alphabetically, which includes Franklin, Clark, and Cuyahoga.
*The hypothesis is that if you automatically lose your party ID because you don't vote in a primary, then a decline of 30,000 Ds from 2008 should be offset by an increase of 30,000 Is in 2012. Didn't happen, except in two cases, Adams and Columbiana. There, large D decreases were matched with large I increases. But in Champaign, Ds lost 71% from 08, but Is only rose 11%. Cuyahoga lost .08% but Is only increased .04%. (Rs gained 30%)
*Franklin Ds fell 30%, but Is fell as well, only at -17%.
In short, it's very hard to find a "swap out" explanation for the D declines in OH.
” Nevada will go right down to the wire.”
But the bottom line is that if things go right in Pennsylvania, and Ohio, Nevada isn’t going to matter! When they report the wins in the East and Midwest, the RAT union scum in Las Vegas will have time to stay home ant take another hit on their bongs, or go out to the nearest Mexican restaurant and drink themselves under the table on cheap Margaritas.
Definitely will a lot more Democrats voting for Romney than Republicans voting for Obama.
While I think 1/3 of the Dem vote for Romney is too high — there are Dems voting for Romney. Those that listened to what Clint Eastwood really said and that is it is OK to NOT vote for Obama this time — you may have last time but he has failed and a change to Romney is OK.
Agweed, Arec, Ras Veags trury a ronerey prace f’wepubricans.
In regards to this post:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2954733/posts#21
I will happily email anyone the Excel sheet I created for LS
It has all the formulas done. All you need to do is plug in raw data for BOTH 2008 and 2012 PER COUNTY in a D/R/I format and you can the difference immediately that the D dropff does NOT match the I uptick. Infact there was a demonstrable R uptick in the first 10 counties that LS sent
I’m a little disappointed for Stevie.
Here’s what I have not been able to figure out for some time — how can Romney be achieving a 9% swing in the RCP poll averages in state after state, but only a 1.7% swing in Ohio? That is not statistically possible.
Let’s look at the movements for Romney by % from 2008 final numbers to current 2012 RCP poll averages:
GA +7
IN + 12
CT +11
NJ + 3.8
NM + 5.1
MO +11
MT +8
OR + 10
MN +5
NV + 10
CO +8
IA + 7
PA +6
WI +9
MI + 13
NH + 8
Average: 8.933% shift to Romney
now let’s get to the real battleground states:
VA +7
NC +4
FL +4.2
OH +1.7
Average: 4.225%
Are you kidding me? These #’s are ridiculous. You cannot have an average shift of 9% nationally and 4.225% in the key states. And the OH #’s are really and truly bizarre.
OH was virtually THE most resistant state to Obama in 2008. There was a 10 point swing nationally from 2004 to 2008 (51 / 48) to (46 / 53) but only a 6.5 point swing in Ohio. But even in 2008, there was a 65% correlative move from the national vote to the Ohio vote. Therefore, if there is an average 9% shift nationally from 2008 to 2012 (that brings us virtually back to 2004 #’s), it is almost inconceivable, without obvious fraud, for Romney to have a 9% swing nationally and less than a 50% correlative swing in Ohio (i.e., a 4.5% swing). Even using an extraordinarily low, and virtually unprecedented low correlation, Obama would get 49.25% in OH and Romney would get 49.4% in OH.
If you assume a 65% correlation going the other way, which, again, is very low on average (but not unprecedented), Romney wins Ohio by 1.4%, or 49.9% to 48.5%, which is about 120,000 votes.
We know from Barone that obama is having to get his normal reliable Tuesday voters to vote early to try and create an air of some semblance of momentum somewhere to spin. Some of that early vote will be normal Tuesday voters not voting... so the turnout on Tuesday for the dims will be less than predicted. Barone is correct.
LLS
colotomy bowel (colon powell).
LLS
colostomy bowel (colon powell).
LLS
Ds down 262,000. Zero carried OH by less than that. He is completely charred.
sfl
Arec,
You are on the money when it comes to your analysis. I have been working with LS on analyzing some real-time early voting data.
While my analysis is by no means fully complete, early returns seem to show a huge uptick in Republican enthusiasm. Also, I can conclusively prove that the “Independents” in OH are not de-registered Democrats (a favorite talking point of Democrats)
My bottom line is that the Governor will win OH, but with a lower margin than his overall national victory. I say this based on the fact that the President has invested a lot of money in the GOTV effort in OHIO (and not very much in PA ;-))
Seems the pollsters are keeping the swing states closer than the other Liberal states which show erosion for OZero..... for me the election will be won on turn out one county at a time..... McCain was just not the mojo guy nor was he going to win against the ANTI BUSH mantra played by the media. Mitt has handled the MSM as well as one could hope since it is 100% against him daily. It is now up to all of us to do our duty and SAVE THIS LOVELY NATION!
You also have the Team Romney theory that Team Obama is taking reliable voters who would normally vote on elections day, and getting them to early vote...in a way it is similar to burning through cash reserve s to give an appearance.
Romney on the other hand, is trying to get unreliable voters to vote early, and count on the hardcores to show up on Election day. IF that is all true, then Obama probably has the biggest operation of this in Ohio, as does Romney...which could account for some of that appearance different.
In other words, their might be a Romney tidal wave on Election day, and many of those Obama voters ALREADY VOTED.
This of course, puts aside the issue of voting 4 times etc etc.
Well, there is one...
McCain trounced Obama on election day in 2008, it was just that it couldn’t overcome Obama’s advantage from the early voting.
If anything Romney will rout Obama even worse, and if Obama’s early voting advantage is significantly down from 2008, I don’t see how Obama pulls it out.
I don’t imagine there is a single Republican for Obama out there now.
Even John McCain isn’t backing Obama this time, and he was Obama’s biggest supporter in 2008!
What about his fat daughter? Between her and Christie, I think Obama has the fat Republican vote sewn up.
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