Early Voting

[PatrickHaggerty]

Rove had indicated in his column in WSJ on 10-31-12:

"530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That's down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election."

Anyone know where these numbers stand as of now? Has early voting closed in Ohio?

[hoosiermama]

LS should be able to answer your question.

[SkyPilot]

There are still a whole bunch of Democrats who will vote.

[wiggen]

82000 diff. how about indies?

[trackman]

I do not know how it stands at this point. But, there is a problem with this statement. Ohio doesn’t have party ID. The party ID that is attached to them is based on which primary they last voted in, if any. But, they are free to vote in any primary they like. Since the Republican primary was really the most interesting one, it’s likely that a lot of Democrats actually voted in the Republican primary. How many is anyone’s guess. I’m hoping not many and that Rove’s numbers are accurate.

I have done some research into the Cuyahoga (Cleveland) county results which in 2008 gave Obama a 38% edge with their votes. Their votes account for something like 11 percent of the state. Their numbers are running behind. Last I could tell, they were about 83% behind. But, don’t assume that’s related to Democrat voter enthusiasm. The amount of registered voters in that county is down by a similar margin. So, their voting numbers seem to be on pace with 2008, but I’m really hoping that Republican’s are exceeding their 2008 numbers significantly.

[Thanks RR Rest Well]

I believe there are 4 hours today and 6 hours Monday that the early voting sites will be open.

[LS]

I think EV but will have to check. Last I heard the difference was +10,000 D. Warren Co. alone can cover that before 10 a.m.

I also have a theory that early voting has FURTHER skewed the polling in favor of Ds because the pollsters have failed to reduce their D samples in all states to acct for D EV advantages. In NV and IA this could be significant because of the actual # of D early voters. However, in OH, where the sheer #isn't great, the Ds apparently are using up Election Day voters ("cannibalizing").

An ACCURATE poll would reduce D pools by a small %, THEN ask first, "Have you voted?" If yes, ask party, then ask if they voted in last election, then in the 2006 election, then ask did you previously always early vote or is this something new for you" If the latter, BINGO. you would know that you have a "motivated/likely voter" who this time voted early and then won't be there on Election Day, then do the math.

[gotribe]

1,126,735 ballots cast by mail as of 11/2; 495,537 cast in person. Total voters in Ohio about 7 million, 70% voted in 2008.

Not sure of party affiliation, but that’s not so important in this election. Dispatch says obama ahead in early voting. But remember, in the last election for gov and congress, the dems were ahead in early voting as well and they lost.

[NKP_Vet]

For the last three days if you click on Yahoo the lead story is “Obama leads in early voting in Swing States”. The truth is Romney leads but Yahoo never let the truth get in their way of trying to convince voters that their boy is winning.

[Wiser now]

My understanding is that early voting in Ohio ended Saturday. That is because a federal judge forced our Sec. of State to hold early voting on weekends.

[CPT Clay]

You are down 82,456 My Prayers are with you Ohio

[bigdaddy45]

I voted yesterday (Saturday) in Ohio in Montgomery County (Dayton). The polls opened at 8 am, and I arrived at 8:20. I was number 174 in line. Turnout was pretty heavy. However, the process was very well organized, and I was out of there by 8:50. Didn’t detect anything amiss.

[Eileanright]

Early voting is going on today and tomorrow in Montgomery County, Ohio.

[PatrickHaggerty]

Just saw on Fox News they said 1.6 million have voted early. Karl Roves numbers Of 530,813 Democrats and 448,537 Republicans yields 957,350.

So there’s been 642,650 more early votes since Rove’s article. Anyone know how these have broke?

[carton253]

Early voting continues through Monday.

[Ken H]

Ohio doesn’t have party ID. The party ID that is attached to them is based on which primary they last voted in, if any.

I've been wondering if Operation Chaos could be skewing the numbers to the D side. It looks to me from reading the following it could be 200,000 or more voters involved:

____________________________________________________________

In late February 2008, Limbaugh announced "Operation Chaos," a political call to action with the initial plan to have voters of the Republican Party temporarily cross over to vote in the Democratic primary and vote for Hillary Clinton, who at the time was in the midst of losing eleven straight primary contests to Barack Obama.

-snip-

At the point in which Limbaugh announced his gambit, Obama had seemed on the verge of clinching the Democratic nomination. However, Clinton subsequently won the Ohio primary and the Texas primary (while losing the Texas caucus and the overall delegate split) with large pluralities from rural counties; thus reemerging as a competitive opponent in the race.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rush_Limbaugh_Show

____________________________________________________________

Results of the 2008 OH primary:

Hillary Clinton 1,259,620 53.49%

Barack Obama 1,055,769 44.84%

[thingumbob]

Here's the Ohio, county by county, spreadsheet with the total numbers that have absentee and early voted counted as one number...... click here and see for yourself.

In 2008, the Democrats where up by 15.65%, this time they are only up by 6.57% early voting is down by 9% for the democrats......and Ohio voted in large numbers Republican on Election day in 2008 (as they historically do) but many of those Republicans in the state stayed home and didn't vote.

This time, enthusiasm in on our side and the early voting numbers show that the Democrats are down 88,000 in early voting from last time and Republicans have already exceeded their voting total from 2008 by just under 32,000 votes so far....

The Republicans that stayed home last time will be out in numbers this time and Romney will win Ohio.......I have absolutely no doubt that this will happen. I don't even think Democrat voter fraud can even come close to overcoming what is coming for them on Election day. It's going to be pure schadenfreude.....

[deport]

Has early voting closed in Ohio?

---

Nope

[fortheDeclaration]

That is nothing compared to 08, the GOP will close that gap very quickly.

[fortheDeclaration]

In 2008, the Democrats where up by 15.65%, this time they are only up by 6.57% early voting is down by 9% for the democrats