Posted on 11/03/2012 9:22:32 PM PDT by smoothsailing
by Mike Wereschagin
Published: Saturday, November 3, 2012, 11:56 p.m.
President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows.
The poll showed the race for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes locked up at 47 percent in its final week. Romney was scheduled to campaign in the Philadelphia area on Sunday, and former President Bill Clinton planned to stump for Obama on Monday. The campaigns have begun to saturate the airwaves with millions of dollars in presidential advertising.
“They’re both in here because of exactly what you’re seeing” in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The poll’s error margin is 3.46 percentage points..........
(Excerpt) Read more at triblive.com ...
Both polls used a D+6. As you say, within the MOE.
If we average the two, it’s Romney 48 Obama 46.
If 2/3 of the undecideds break for Romney he wins 52 to 48.
I’ll take it. It will make for an early night and a Romney wave rolling west!
Yes it is, very much so.
It has nothing to do with registration.
In 2008 it was D+7 (D/R/I) 44/37/18 and in 2004 it was D+2 (D/R/I) 41/39/20.
I guess that makes sense. PA has GOP controlled upper and lower state houses, governorship, and US House representatives.
I will be at the rally in Philly tomorrow. I’m so excited!!
a lot of D’s will vote for Romney in Pa.
blue dog Reagan Democrats
Yeah, unfortunately, I just don’t think D+6 is realistic in a state with a D+13 registration advantage (D+12 active reg advantage as of 10/15/2012.) D+8 or D+9 is probably closer to reality. That still makes it VERY CLOSE.
Regardless of the D registration advantage, the self-identified vote went D+7 in 2008 and D+2 in 2004. a D+6 sample may be OVERSAMPLING Democrats.
Keep in mind that the we are a closed primary state, in consequence of which a lot of voters change party ID without changing official party registration unless they have a hot primary to vote in, so registration edge is somewhat of a lagging indicator here.
Susquehanna has a pretty good reputation, although I would be happier with D+8 or D+9. However, there are a LOT of lazy Dems in PA, so we win statewide races quite often during the midterm election years.
I wish the Scranton diocese and Johnston/Altoona archdiocese would have priests reading the episcopal letters being read out at Mass in Illinois this Sunday. OH and PA have very large ethnic Catholic populations and the Roman Church could help.
The registration edge for Dems in PA is that big?? Very surprising considering their congressional delegation usually tilts Republican and I think the GOP has controlled the legislature for most of the recent past. The state is certainly very purple so it must be that a lot of those registered Dems vote Republican in many elections. So I am hopeful Mitt can eke out a win there. If so he will almost certainly take the presidency.
Actually of those identifying as Republican vs. Democrat (including leaners), Gallup has PA with a D+5 edge (in 2011). That’s a large swing from 2009. You can see those statistics as well as other states from this link:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx
PA Ping!
If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me.
If you see posts of interest to Pennsylvanians, please ping me.
Thanks!
Actually, D+6 is quite reasonable. If anything, it understates the crossover vote this year. A D+4 or D+5 is more likely, IMO.
In Pennsylvania, voter registration is a lousy indicator of voter intent. Consider the fact that a D+13 registration advantage has resulted in a current Republican Governor, Republican control of the General Assembly, a Republican majority Congressional delegation, and one of the most conservative Republican US Senators(Pat Toomey).
Leftist PPP is claiming Obama has a six point lead in PA... with D+10... (D/R/I: 48/38/14)
That’s laughable, PPP is certainly known for skewing polls. LOL
A D+4-6 range is realistic.
“Brilliant move by Romney & Ryan to make campaign stops in PA.”
It would be “brilliant” if they’d remind the people in PA about Hussein’s remark about the bitter clinger hicks in areas like Pennsylvania. I wonder if they remember that.
Agreed, but ALL elected in a midterm year. Presidential years haven’t been as fertile.
Agreed, but ALL elected in a midterm year. Presidential years haven’t been as fertile.
Think positive, Fred.
Remember, Romney was on the winning end of the Redskins Rule today!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.